## Turbulence and the Lessons of History

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**Canonical URL:** [Turbulence and the Lessons of History](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/fandd/issues/2022/06/turbulence-and-the-lessons-of-history-patricia-clavin)

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## Bibliographic details
- Authors: Patricia Clavin
- Published: June 2, 2022

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### Overview
- Author: Patricia Clavin, Professor of Modern History at Oxford University and a Worcester College fellow.
- Publication: F&D Magazine, June 2022.
- Central thesis: Opportunities are born of crisis, but the lines that connect them are far from direct; the contemporary challenge is managing turbulence in an increasingly interconnected and multipolar world rather than treating shocks as isolated events.

### Historical parallels and core findings
- The 21st century’s interconnectedness makes shocks from anywhere capable of becoming systemic.
- Historical periods discussed:
  - First half of the 20th century: World War I, the Spanish flu, communist revolutions, a Great Depression with rival trade blocs, and World War II.
  - 1920s and 1930s: persistent efforts to promote international norms among liberal democracies; waves of social mobilization; grassroots and nongovernmental activism supporting displaced civilians.
  - Post-1940: planning for a new world order centered around the United Nations; emergence of specialized multilateral organizations.
  - Post-1918 example: rapid development and then bust of overseas markets for the United States with lasting effects on North American wheat prices and US trade policy and diplomacy.
- Key historical lesson: the absolute centrality of the political economy to the failure or success of international cooperation and global governance.

### Managing future shocks — conceptual shifts
- Reframe the problem as managing turbulence rather than segregating stability and crisis.
- Recognize interactions among shocks (examples provided):
  - Disruption to food and fertilizer supplies in Ukraine will have consequences that outlast the war.
  - Population displacement after world wars produced long-lasting socioeconomic challenges (e.g., displaced central and eastern Europeans living in temporary camps for a decade or more).
- Multipolarity focus: a new power shift is underway; China is no more likely to be the sole dominant power in the 21st century than the United States was in the 20th century.
- Path dependency of global governance: institutions and their evolution reflect historical trajectories and constraints.

### Role of institutions, regional governance, and diplomacy
- Post-1945 institutional architecture: World Health Organization, Food and Agriculture Organization, International Monetary Fund, World Bank—born from prior practices of scientific and humanitarian collaboration.
- Institutional design insight: the multipurpose League of Nations gave way to single-purpose UN institutions, indicating discrete strands of governance (health, food, finance, trade, geopolitics, displaced peoples, climate change), though contemporary shocks demonstrate these strands are interconnected.
- Regional institutions matter:
  - NATO, the European Union, UN Security Council and General Assembly relations on human security are newly salient.
  - New regional institutions (example cited: Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank) have unclear global implications.
- Diplomacy must:
  - Secure a peace that respects Ukrainian sovereignty while addressing Ukraine’s—and Russia’s—need for security.
  - Refer to and deploy international law and organizations, while recognizing the need for reform.
  - Avoid working outside international organizations in ways that risk undermining global order (historical parallel: Neville Chamberlain and Munich, 1938).

### Policy implications and recommendations
- Prioritize multiagency and state engagement to address interconnected shocks; do not leave management to single institutions (example institutions listed: NATO, IMF).
- Reengage public interest in international organizations by building on grassroots activism and new aid entrepreneurs who can shape reform language and frameworks.
- Give equal attention to local-to-global linkages:
  - Support community-based programs with economic and financial support as well as improved health care, drawing on precedents from 1920s epidemic responses.
- Acknowledge political economy in designing cooperative arrangements to avoid perceptions of unfair settlements that can erode legitimacy (historical example: Paris Peace Treaties after World War I and subsequent protectionism).
- Recognize that arguments for or against international cooperation are rival attempts to find solutions to common dilemmas; reform should be pursued within institutions where possible to preserve global order.

### Key dates, periods, and numeric references preserved exactly as in the source
- "June 2022"
- "21st century"
- "first half of the 20th century"
- "after 1940"
- "early 2000s"
- "more than 20 years"
- "1918"
- "1920s"
- "1930s"
- "1945"
- "the decade or more after these wars ended"
- Historical reference year: "1938"

*Source: Turbulence and the Lessons of History, Patricia Clavin, F&D Magazine, June 2022.*

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_Source: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/fandd/issues/2022/06/turbulence-and-the-lessons-of-history-patricia-clavin_