## Cities After The Pandemic

## Source details

**Canonical URL:** [Cities After The Pandemic](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/fandd/issues/2022/12/cities-after-the-pandemic-cutler-glaeser)

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## Bibliographic details
- Authors: DAVID CUTLER, EDWARD GLAESER
- Published: December 1, 2022

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### Overview
- Central question: What impact will the double blow of the COVID-19 pandemic and the remote-working revolution have on cities?
- Core conclusion: As long as we don’t face a new and deadlier pandemic in the near future, the cities of the developed world will largely recover; their appeal to knowledge-intensive industries and younger workers is that strong.
- Caveat for developing-world cities: They have already come back, but they may suffer future costs if reduced global business travel leads to a decline in foreign direct investment.
- Policy implication: The wealthy world should invest more in public health and medical care systems to prevent future pandemics, including more investment in the poorer parts of the planet.

### Historical context of urban epidemics and urban resilience
- Epidemics have long shaped cities:
  - First well-documented urban plague struck Athens in 430 BCE.
  - The Plague of Justinian hit Constantinople in 541 CE.
  - The Black Death killed perhaps one-third of Europe’s population in the 14th century; survivors experienced higher wages and increased per capita wealth thereafter.
- Nineteenth-century globalization spread yellow fever and cholera; these diseases killed a vastly higher share of the population than COVID-19.
- Public-health investments (example: New York’s Croton Aqueduct) were pivotal in making cities safer and enabling continued urban growth.
- The period 1919 to 2019 is described as a “fortunate century” in the rich world with relatively contained outbreaks (SARS, MERS, Ebola, swine flu) and the development of antiretroviral medications for HIV.

### Pandemic-era technological shifts and urban activity
- Remote work and social isolation technologies shaped the wealthy world’s COVID-19 experience.
- Key statistics preserved from the source:
  - In May 2020, two-thirds of Americans with advanced degrees were working from home.
  - Google mobility data show that visits to workplaces in the United States were still down by 28 percent in August 2022 compared with the pre-pandemic period.
  - In Manhattan and London, workplace visits were down by more than 45 percent.
- Risk described: A potential downward cycle—permanently empty offices → reduced demand for local services → unemployment and lower public spending → more workers leaving cities.
- Individual-city vulnerability: Cities that allow crime to degrade urban quality of life are particularly at risk.

### Economic and social role of cities
- Urban benefits emphasized:
  - Cities connect people and transmit complex and nuanced information.
  - People earn more in cities than in rural areas.
  - Cities provide venues for cultural amenities and social interaction (cafés, museums, arts venues).
  - Suicide rates are lower in cities than in rural areas, possibly reflecting better mental health.
  - Cities historically attract migrants escaping rural poverty.
- Downsides of density: Contagious disease is the most terrible downside.

### Policy recommendations and priorities
- Invest more in public health and medical care systems in wealthy countries to prevent future pandemics.
- Increase investment in poorer parts of the planet to reduce global pandemic risk.
- Cities should emphasize public health as part of strategies to keep economies healthy and sustain urban appeal.

*DAVID M. CUTLER and EDWARD GLAESER, F&D Magazine, December 2022.*

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## Content in this bundle

- **Cities After the Pandemic**
  - [Cities After the Pandemic (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/fandd/article/2022/december/cutler.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"}
  - [Cities After the Pandemic (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/fandd/article/2022/december/cutler.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"}

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_Source: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/fandd/issues/2022/12/cities-after-the-pandemic-cutler-glaeser_