{
  "title": "Questioning Assumptions",
  "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/en/publications/fandd/issues/2022/12/pie-questioning-assumptions-emi-nakamura",
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  "summary": "Peter J. Walker profiles Berkeley’s Emi Nakamura, who delves into details to answer big questions",
  "sections": [
    {
      "heading": "Profile and background",
      "content": "- Subject: Emi Nakamura, professor of economics at the University of California, Berkeley.\n- Personal background:\n  - Grew up in Alberta, Canada.\n  - One of her favorite movies as a child was the 1987 docudrama The Race for the Double Helix.\n  - Described as a 42-year-old in the profile.\n  - Married to Jón Steinsson, fellow Berkeley economics professor; they met as undergraduates at Princeton.\n  - Parents Alice and Masao Nakamura are economists at the University of Alberta and the University of British Columbia, respectively.\n- Recognition:\n  - In 2018, The Economist listed her among the decade’s eight best young economists.\n  - “A year later she won the John Bates Clark Medal—awarded to the most influential American economist under the age of 40—for her research on fiscal stimulus and price stickiness.”"
    },
    {
      "heading": "Research approach and methods",
      "content": "- Core methodology: using micro data (data on individual people, households, and businesses) to answer macroeconomic questions and improve causal identification.\n- Rationale: “There often aren’t enough data points in the macro data to make convincing arguments about causality. Looking at micro data is a natural way to expand the data set.”\n- Typical research traits:\n  - Painstaking attention to data and melding of theory with empirical methods.\n  - Distinguishing temporary phenomena (e.g., sales) from regular behavior in micro records.\n  - Willingness to undertake onerous data collection (e.g., custom microfilm conversion)."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Price stickiness and inflation findings",
      "content": "- Key studies and findings:\n  - Bils and Klenow (2004) earlier finding: half of prices lasting less than 4.3 months; used an extract of Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) micro data for two years, 1995–97.\n  - Nakamura and Steinsson’s “Five Facts about Prices” (2008):\n    - Used actual BLS micro data expanded to cover 1988 to 2005.\n    - By separating temporary sales from regular pricing, they found regular prices were stickier than Bils and Klenow estimated.\n    - Observation: “Prices changed much more frequently in times of high inflation.”\n  - “The Elusive Costs of Inflation” (2018):\n    - Examined the higher-inflation period between 1977 and 1988.\n    - Confirmed that regular prices were adjusted more frequently in periods of higher inflation.\n  - “The Slope of the Phillips Curve” (2022):\n    - Originated from analysis by the Macro Policy Lab.\n    - Using data going back to 1978, the authors find that the slope of the Phillips curve is small—and has gotten only modestly smaller since the early 1980s.\n    - Implication: the early 1980s disinflation was less about higher unemployment and more about anchored inflation expectations under the new monetary regime instituted by Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker.\n- Policy-relevant implications:\n  - Accurate monitoring of economy-wide price changes requires distinguishing sales from regular price movements.\n  - Maintaining long-term inflation expectations and confidence in the monetary regime is “key” when central banks attempt to rein in inflation while growth dwindles."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Fiscal stimulus and other empirical contributions",
      "content": "- “Fiscal Stimulus in a Monetary Union” (2014):\n  - Focused on US military spending variation across regions to estimate fiscal multipliers within a common monetary and tax policy environment.\n  - Analyzed 40 years of military purchases (including repairs and purchases of new aircraft carriers).\n  - Found evidence that fiscal multipliers “could be large,” indicating fiscal stimulus can significantly boost growth.\n- “The Gift of Moving” (2022):\n  - Natural experiment from Iceland’s Westman Islands volcanic eruption on January 23, 1973.\n  - Tracked parents and children over the subsequent 34 years using detailed Icelandic data on income, education, and genealogical linkages.\n  - Findings:\n    - Children who moved had higher levels of education and earnings than if they had stayed.\n    - Parents of movers earned slightly less, suggesting large parental costs that may discourage moves and act as barriers to social mobility.\n  - Noted that moves often involved relocating to lower-income areas, yet children’s life outcomes improved when skills matched local opportunities (e.g., fishing industry)."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Collaboration, mentorship, and working style",
      "content": "- Partnership with Jón Steinsson:\n  - Complementary skills: Nakamura’s meticulousness and high standards for understanding; Steinsson’s idea generation and critical evaluation.\n  - Frequent coauthorship; the relationship strengthens research through rigorous critique.\n- Family and cross-generational collaboration:\n  - Regular coauthorship and intellectual exchange with economist parents Alice and Masao Nakamura.\n- Mentorship:\n  - Known for fostering constructive partnerships with PhD students; example: support for David Bruns-Smith when he switched from computer science to economics.\n  - Emphasis on substantive economic meaning over dogmatic attachment to formal frameworks."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Current and future work",
      "content": "- Ongoing projects include studies of:\n  - How exchange rate depreciations affect economic activity.\n  - The economic effects of unemployment insurance extensions.\n  - The impact of seasonal adjustment methods used for government statistics.\n\nPeter J. Walker. F&D Magazine. December 2022.\n\n---\n\n Content in this bundle\n\n- Questioning Assumptions: Emi Nakamura profile\n  - Questioning Assumptions: Emi Nakamura profile (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - Questioning Assumptions: Emi Nakamura profile (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n\n---\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/fandd/issues/2022/12/pie-questioning-assumptions-emi-nakamura"
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    "Authors: PETER J WALKER",
    "Published: December 1, 2022",
    "Subject: Emi Nakamura, professor of economics at the University of California, Berkeley.",
    "Personal background:",
    "Recognition:",
    "Core methodology: using micro data (data on individual people, households, and businesses) to answer macroeconomic questions and improve causal identification.",
    "Rationale: “There often aren’t enough data points in the macro data to make convincing arguments about causality. Looking at micro data is a natural way to expand the data set.”",
    "Typical research traits:",
    "Key studies and findings:",
    "Policy-relevant implications:",
    "“Fiscal Stimulus in a Monetary Union” (2014):",
    "“The Gift of Moving” (2022):",
    "Partnership with Jón Steinsson:",
    "Family and cross-generational collaboration:",
    "Mentorship:",
    "Ongoing projects include studies of:",
    "**Questioning Assumptions: Emi Nakamura profile**"
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