## New Model Army by Jeremy Wagstaff

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**Canonical URL:** [New Model Army by Jeremy Wagstaff](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/fandd/issues/2023/12/case-studies-new-model-army-jeremy-wagstaff)

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## Bibliographic details
- Authors: JEREMY WAGSTAFF
- Published: December 1, 2023

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### Case study overview
- AI has accelerated shifts in battlefield dynamics, and policymakers are playing catch-up.
- The war in Ukraine has become a testing ground for new technology, demonstrating how artificial intelligence (AI) can be used across strategic decision-making, tactical operations, logistical prediction, and information warfare.
- The piece frames AI uses including: acting on real-time or recent intelligence at the local level; predicting logistical challenges; and leveraging information warfare to “shape how narrative construction works.”

### Speed and operational adaptation
- AI helps armies monitor enemy movements and deliver payloads remotely and autonomously.
- Battlefield dynamics accelerate as forces alter tactics, techniques, and procedures to leverage or mitigate AI’s impact.
- Failure to adapt quickly can be seized on by an agile foe.
- Examples:
  - When Russian soldiers and pilots communicated without encrypting their conversations, Ukraine developed AI-based voice recognition and translation software to monitor these communications and extract actionable intelligence.
  - When Russia introduced electronic jamming to thwart Ukraine’s combat drones, Kyiv’s programmers developed an AI tool to help its drones evade Russian jamming and stay locked on target.

### Unpiloted aerial vehicles (UAVs) and drone evolution
- The principles behind UAVs have not changed significantly since the 1990s, but in Ukraine the range and capabilities of drones evolved rapidly by coupling them with continuous advances in AI.
- Early role: the military-grade Turkish-made Bayraktar TB2 drone played a key role in Ukraine’s defense in the early months of the 2022 invasion, but became less useful as Russia upgraded its air defense and electronic warfare capabilities.
- With more permanent battle lines later in the year, Ukraine pushed domestic drone development, yielding improved and diverse devices.
- Example: In September, Kyiv approved deployment of homegrown Saker Scout drones that can detect enemy targets often missed by the human eye, even when hidden under camouflage.
- The pace of drone innovation changed military thinking: planners began treating AI not as a checkbox but as requiring data, knowledge of both sides, and robust testing and evaluation procedures.
- Quote: Ukraine’s creative drone development is something “no one could have imagined,” per Lauren Kahn, senior research analyst at Georgetown University’s Center for Security and Emerging Technology (CSET).

### Data, private sector roles, and implications
- Data is characterized as the fuel that powers AI; the war highlighted both data importance and policy questions.
- Ukraine repurposed a government tax app to allow citizens to upload photos, videos, and other details about Russian troops and positions to a military-run database.
- Kyiv combined commercially available satellite images with classified ally data, hacked Russian surveillance cameras, and its own drone footage.
- Private tech companies played central roles in processing sensitive data; Palantir is the most visible example.
  - Palantir’s involvement extended the private sector role in processing wartime data; its chief executive, Alex Karp, is on record as saying the company is responsible for most of the targeting in Ukraine.
  - Quote: “It’s almost like a full service they provide, which I think has proved invaluable,” — CSET’s Lauren Kahn.
- Policy questions flagged:
  - Private companies can develop the kinds of AI armed forces need, but “Once it’s out there, where does it go next? How’s it going to be controlled, shaped, or directed?” — Matthew Ford, Swedish Defence University.

### Digital battlefield and information archives
- The war is described as “the most documented war in history.”
- Telegram, used by three-quarters of Ukrainians and well over a third of Russians to share videos and photos, functions as the digital battleground.
- Uploaded content goes beyond military and intelligence servers to NGOs and investigators cataloging human rights abuses for future war crimes trials.
- AI applied to these archives enables discovery of unexpected findings: “When you apply AI to these archives, ‘you start to find things you never anticipated.’” — Andrew Hoskins, University of Glasgow.

_Jeremy Wagstaff — New Model Army, F&D Magazine, December 2023_

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_Source: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/fandd/issues/2023/12/case-studies-new-model-army-jeremy-wagstaff_