{ "title": "Building Blocks for AI Governance", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/en/publications/fandd/issues/2023/12/pov-building-blocks-for-ai-governance-bremmer-suleyman", "canonical": "https://www.imf.org/en/publications/fandd/issues/2023/12/pov-building-blocks-for-ai-governance-bremmer-suleyman", "overlayPath": "/en/publications/fandd/issues/2023/12/pov-building-blocks-for-ai-governance-bremmer-suleyman/index.md", "summary": "Policymakers must adhere to five guiding principles to govern AI effectively", "sections": [ { "heading": "Executive summary", "content": "- Artificial intelligence will open people’s lives and societies to groundbreaking scientific advances, unprecedented access to technology, toxic misinformation that disrupts democracies, and economic upheaval.\n- AI will trigger a fundamental shift in the structure and balance of global power, creating an unparalleled challenge for political institutions around the world.\n- Policymakers must adhere to five guiding principles to govern AI effectively." }, { "heading": "The AI power paradox and technological dynamics", "content": "- AI is hyper-evolutionary: its rate of improvement will far surpass Moore’s Law (doubling of computing power every two years).\n- The amount of computation used to train the most powerful AI models has increased by a factor of 10 every year for the past 10 years.\n- Processing that once took weeks now happens in seconds; foundation technologies will become smaller, cheaper, and more accessible.\n- AI systems may soon be capable of quasi-autonomy and may become the first technology with the means to improve on itself.\n- Proliferation characteristics:\n - AI algorithms are far easier and cheaper to copy and share (or steal) than physical assets.\n - Models will soon run on smartphones as computing gets cheaper.\n - Marginal cost of models and marginal cost of delivery is zero, meaning once released, AI models can and will be everywhere.\n - Most models will be safe; but a single malign or “breakout” model could wreak havoc." }, { "heading": "Geopolitical and commercial incentives that undermine governance", "content": "- Dual-use nature: AI’s civil and military uses are blurred, but unlike nuclear enrichment, AI’s low cost enables endless deployment for civil or military use.\n- AI supremacy is a strategic objective of every government and company with resources to compete; the US and China both see AI supremacy as a strategic objective that must be achieved—and denied to the other.\n- This zero-sum dynamic incentivizes acceleration of AI development rather than slowing it down.\n- Control and enforcement challenges:\n - Every aspect of AI is currently controlled by the private sector.\n - A handful of large tech firms control AI today, but gradual proliferation may bring many small players into the space, complicating governance.\n - Private businesses and individual technologists have limited incentive to self-regulate.\n- Conclusion: The combination of technological features and incentives renders traditional governance models inadequate." }, { "heading": "Five guiding principles for AI governance", "content": "- Precautionary\n - The risk-reward profile of AI is asymmetric; policymakers must guard against potentially catastrophic downsides.\n - The precautionary principle needs to be adapted to AI and enshrined in any governance regime.\n- Agile\n - AI governance must be as agile, adaptive, and self-correcting as AI is fast-moving, hyper-evolutionary, and self-improving.\n - Static policymaking structures that prize stability and predictability will not work.\n- Inclusive\n - Regulators must collaborate with the commercial sector; the only way to properly oversee AI is to collaborate with private technology companies.\n - Governments should make companies parties to international agreements to reflect the borderless nature of AI.\n - Including private companies in high diplomacy may be unprecedented but excluding them would doom governance structures.\n- Impermeable\n - Given AI’s ease of proliferation, compliance mechanisms should be watertight, with easy entry to compel participation and costly exit to deter noncompliance.\n - One defection from a regime could allow a dangerous model to escape.\n- Targeted\n - AI governance must be targeted, risk-based, and modular rather than one-size-fits-all.\n - Develop a live, working taxonomy of discrete potential AI impacts to determine which tools target which risks." }, { "heading": "Institutional implications and recommended approach", "content": "- AI governance must account for unpredictability: rules passed today may not be effective or relevant in months or years.\n- Avoid boxing regulators with inflexible regimes; instead build institutions and conceptual frameworks that enable adaptive policy.\n- Policymaking should avoid a false binary between progress and doom; the goal is to stimulate innovation while avoiding dangerous proliferation and geopolitical arms-race dynamics.\n- The international community needs to agree on a conceptual framework for how to think about AI; the five principles are offered as a start.\n\nIan Bremmer and MUSTAFA SULEYMAN, F&D Magazine, December 2023\n\n---\n\n Content in this bundle\n\n- Point of View: Building Blocks for AI Governance\n - Point of View: Building Blocks for AI Governance (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - Point of View: Building Blocks for AI Governance (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n\n---\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/fandd/issues/2023/12/pov-building-blocks-for-ai-governance-bremmer-suleyman" } ], "bullets": [ "[Markdown version](/en/publications/fandd/issues/2023/12/pov-building-blocks-for-ai-governance-bremmer-suleyman/index.md)", "[Structured JSON version](/en/publications/fandd/issues/2023/12/pov-building-blocks-for-ai-governance-bremmer-suleyman/index.json)", "[Bundle manifest](/en/publications/fandd/issues/2023/12/pov-building-blocks-for-ai-governance-bremmer-suleyman/bundle-manifest.json)", "Authors: Ian Bremmer, MUSTAFA SULEYMAN", "Published: December 1, 2023", "Artificial intelligence will open people’s lives and societies to groundbreaking scientific advances, unprecedented access to technology, toxic misinformation that disrupts democracies, and economic upheaval.", "AI will trigger a fundamental shift in the structure and balance of global power, creating an unparalleled challenge for political institutions around the world.", "Policymakers must adhere to five guiding principles to govern AI effectively.", "AI is hyper-evolutionary: its rate of improvement will far surpass Moore’s Law (doubling of computing power every two years).", "The amount of computation used to train the most powerful AI models has increased by a factor of 10 every year for the past 10 years.", "Processing that once took weeks now happens in seconds; foundation technologies will become smaller, cheaper, and more accessible.", "AI systems may soon be capable of quasi-autonomy and may become the first technology with the means to improve on itself.", "Proliferation characteristics:", "Dual-use nature: AI’s civil and military uses are blurred, but unlike nuclear enrichment, AI’s low cost enables endless deployment for civil or military use.", "AI supremacy is a strategic objective of every government and company with resources to compete; the US and China both see AI supremacy as a strategic objective that must be achieved—and denied to the other.", "This zero-sum dynamic incentivizes acceleration of AI development rather than slowing it down.", "Control and enforcement challenges:", "Conclusion: The combination of technological features and incentives renders traditional governance models inadequate.", "Precautionary", "Agile", "Inclusive", "Impermeable", "Targeted", "AI governance must account for unpredictability: rules passed today may not be effective or relevant in months or years.", "Avoid boxing regulators with inflexible regimes; instead build institutions and conceptual frameworks that enable adaptive policy.", "Policymaking should avoid a false binary between progress and doom; the goal is to stimulate innovation while avoiding dangerous proliferation and geopolitical arms-race dynamics.", "The international community needs to agree on a conceptual framework for how to think about AI; the five principles are offered as a start.", "**Point of View: Building Blocks for AI Governance**" ], "related": [ { "title": "Point of View: Building Blocks for AI Governance", "role": "document", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/fandd/article/2023/december/pov-bremmer-suleyman.pdf", "summary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/fandd/article/2023/december/pov-bremmer-suleyman.pdf.md", "mime": "text/markdown" }, "binary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/fandd/article/2023/december/pov-bremmer-suleyman.pdf", "mime": "application/pdf" } } ], "alternates": { "markdown": "/en/publications/fandd/issues/2023/12/pov-building-blocks-for-ai-governance-bremmer-suleyman/index.md", "json": "/en/publications/fandd/issues/2023/12/pov-building-blocks-for-ai-governance-bremmer-suleyman/index.json", "bundleManifest": "/en/publications/fandd/issues/2023/12/pov-building-blocks-for-ai-governance-bremmer-suleyman/bundle-manifest.json" }, "generatedAtUtc": "2026-09-15T18:56:38.305Z" }