## Picture This: Demographic Decline

## Source details

**Canonical URL:** [Picture This: Demographic Decline](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/fandd/issues/2024/09/picture-this-demographic-decline-andrew-stanley)

## Other formats

- [Markdown version](/en/publications/fandd/issues/2024/09/picture-this-demographic-decline-andrew-stanley/index.md)
- [Structured JSON version](/en/publications/fandd/issues/2024/09/picture-this-demographic-decline-andrew-stanley/index.json)
- [Bundle manifest](/en/publications/fandd/issues/2024/09/picture-this-demographic-decline-andrew-stanley/bundle-manifest.json)

## Bibliographic details
- Authors: ANDREW STANLEY
- Published: September 3, 2024

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### Overview and key facts
- Title: Picture This: Demographic Decline
- Publication: F&D Magazine
- Author: ANDREW STANLEY
- Date: September 2024
- Core finding: Over half of the world’s economies, accounting for two-thirds of the global population, now have fertility rates below the replacement fertility level of 2.1 children per woman.
- Without action, these populations will age and decline over time.

### Economic and fiscal effects of lower fertility and aging
- Demographic trends observed in countries such as Italy, Japan, and Germany:
  - Lower birth rates → smaller working-age population.
  - Smaller working-age population → reduced economic productivity.
  - Rising ratio of retirees to workers → higher costs for pensions and health care.
  - Pressure on public finances due to higher social support costs.
- Implication: Aging populations increase fiscal burdens and can slow economic growth if not offset.

### Policy responses and adaptations described
- Family-support policies to raise fertility:
  - Nordic countries: generous parental leave and subsidized childcare to encourage higher birth rates.
  - Singapore: financial incentives for families to have more children.
- Productivity and labor-supply adjustments:
  - Investment in technology and automation (example: Japan) to enhance productivity despite a shrinking workforce.
- Note: Several countries with declining demographics are experimenting with these and other innovative policy responses.

### Regional contrasts and opportunities
- Sub-Saharan Africa:
  - High fertility rates present different challenges: need to invest in education and healthcare and create jobs to support a young and growing population.
  - Opportunity: youthful demographics can be leveraged to support economic growth if appropriate investments are made.

### Author and viewpoint
- ANDREW STANLEY is on the staff of Finance & Development.
- Disclaimer in source: Opinions expressed in articles and other materials are those of the authors; they do not necessarily reflect IMF policy.

*Picture This: Demographic Decline — F&D Magazine, September 2024, Andrew Stanley*

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## Content in this bundle

- **Demographic Decline**
  - [Demographic Decline (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/fandd/article/2024/09/pt-productivity.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"}
  - [Demographic Decline (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/fandd/article/2024/09/pt-productivity.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"}

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_Source: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/fandd/issues/2024/09/picture-this-demographic-decline-andrew-stanley_