{
  "title": "Tomorrow’s Electricity",
  "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/en/publications/fandd/issues/2024/12/book-review-tomorrows-electricity-chris-wellisz",
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  "summary": "The broad adoption of technology across the economy drives growth, not leading industries",
  "sections": [
    {
      "heading": "Summary of the book reviewed",
      "content": "- Title reviewed: Technology and the Rise of Great Powers: How Diffusion Shapes Economic Competition by Jeffrey Ding.\n- Publication details noted in the review: Princeton University Press, Princeton, NJ, 2024, 320 pp., $29.95.\n- Central claim highlighted: broad adoption and diffusion of general-purpose technologies (GPTs) across many sectors—not dominance in a few “leading” industries—drives long-run economic growth and determines which nations rise to global prominence."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Evidence and historical findings",
      "content": "- Critique of the leading sectors theory:\n  - Leading sectors theory holds that first-mover advantage in disruptive, pioneer industries (examples cited: consumer electronics, semiconductors, chemicals, steel, motor vehicles) yields global economic dominance.\n  - Jeffrey Ding disputes this theory, arguing it fails to explain how innovation translates into sustained, economy-wide growth.\n- Historical examples used to support diffusion thesis:\n  - Britain: cotton production surged after the spinning jenny and the water frame, but the textile industry accounted for only a small portion of subsequent increases in productivity, industrial production, and per capita GDP.\n  - Britain’s Industrial Revolution success attributed to widespread mechanization of industry and adoption of the factory system (GPT diffusion), not only breakthroughs in iron or cotton textiles.\n  - United States: the invention of the electrical generator in 1871 did not lead to widespread electrification of industry until decades later, illustrating slow diffusion.\n  - Japan: despite technological pacesetting in the 1980s, Japan experienced economic stagnation in the 1990s, suggesting a technological lead does not guarantee long-term dominance.\n- Key conceptual contrast:\n  - “GPT infrastructure” (education, training, deep pools of engineering skills, broad-based adoption) vs. flashy, concentrated investments in frontier innovation."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Policy implications and recommendations",
      "content": "- For policymakers in countries competing over AI and other GPTs (examples discussed: China and the United States):\n  - Rethink emphasis on monopolizing frontier research and development; a sole focus on R&D may be misplaced.\n  - Prioritize building GPT infrastructure:\n    - Expand technology training for less-skilled workers so they can embed the next GPT throughout the economy.\n    - Strengthen education and training systems to cultivate large pools of engineering skills.\n  - Recognize that no single country can monopolize a GPT such as artificial intelligence; diffusion and broad adoption matter more than exclusive control of frontier innovation.\n- Suggested strategic shift: from securing the high ground in innovation to investing in systems that enable economy-wide diffusion of technologies."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Key quotations and formulations preserved",
      "content": "- “It is the broad adoption of technology across the economy that drives growth, not leading industries.”\n- “GPT infrastructure, not the flashy efforts to secure the high ground in innovation, will decide which nation owns the future.”\n\nSource: F&D Magazine review “Tomorrow’s Electricity” by CHRIS WELLISZ, December 2024; review of Technology and the Rise of Great Powers by Jeffrey Ding (Princeton University Press, Princeton, NJ, 2024, 320 pp., $29.95).\n\n---\n\n Content in this bundle\n\n- Tomorrow’s Electricity\n  - Tomorrow’s Electricity (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - Tomorrow’s Electricity (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n\n---\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/fandd/issues/2024/12/book-review-tomorrows-electricity-chris-wellisz"
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    "Authors: CHRIS WELLISZ",
    "Published: December 3, 2024",
    "Title reviewed: Technology and the Rise of Great Powers: How Diffusion Shapes Economic Competition by Jeffrey Ding.",
    "Publication details noted in the review: Princeton University Press, Princeton, NJ, 2024, 320 pp., $29.95.",
    "Central claim highlighted: broad adoption and diffusion of general-purpose technologies (GPTs) across many sectors—not dominance in a few “leading” industries—drives long-run economic growth and determines which nations rise to global prominence.",
    "Critique of the leading sectors theory:",
    "Historical examples used to support diffusion thesis:",
    "Key conceptual contrast:",
    "For policymakers in countries competing over AI and other GPTs (examples discussed: China and the United States):",
    "Suggested strategic shift: from securing the high ground in innovation to investing in systems that enable economy-wide diffusion of technologies.",
    "“It is the broad adoption of technology across the economy that drives growth, not leading industries.”",
    "“GPT infrastructure, not the flashy efforts to secure the high ground in innovation, will decide which nation owns the future.”",
    "**Tomorrow’s Electricity**"
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