{
  "title": "Hope despite Hostility",
  "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/en/publications/fandd/issues/2025/09/book-review-hope-despite-hostility-elizabeth-van-heuvelen",
  "canonical": "https://www.imf.org/en/publications/fandd/issues/2025/09/book-review-hope-despite-hostility-elizabeth-van-heuvelen",
  "overlayPath": "/en/publications/fandd/issues/2025/09/book-review-hope-despite-hostility-elizabeth-van-heuvelen/index.md",
  "summary": "Trade during wartime was once considered a nonstarter because it was seen as contributing to military capability",
  "sections": [
    {
      "heading": "Overview and thesis",
      "content": "- Book reviewed: Trade in War: Economic Cooperation across Enemy Lines by Mariya Grinberg, Cornell University Press, Ithaca, NY, 2025, 259 pp., $48.\n- Reviewer: ELIZABETH VAN HEUVELEN, senior economist in the IMF’s Strategy, Policy, and Review Department.\n- Core question: Why do warring countries trade with each other?\n- Central argument: States allow as much wartime trade as makes military sense and prohibit as much militarily dangerous trade as is economically viable."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Historical turning point: neutral rights and the Crimean War",
      "content": "- Trade during wartime was once considered a nonstarter because it was seen as contributing to military capability.\n- The introduction of “neutral rights” during the Crimean War caused a fundamental shift in thinking about trade during war—nuanced trade policy could replace the extreme practice of severing all trade.\n- Anecdote: A large amount of produce already paid for by France became stuck in Russian ports because of late-melting ice in the Baltic Sea; this circumstance enabled France to persuade Britain and Russia to allow the shipment through despite the ongoing war.\n- Outcome: A declaration on the rights of neutrals and eventual adoption of the Declaration of Paris, which codified such practices through subsequent conflicts and allowed trade to continue."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Analytical framework: conversion time and wartime trade decision-making",
      "content": "- Key concept: “conversion time” — the time it takes for trade products to be converted into military capability.\n- Decision rule emphasized: Weigh immediate military benefits of restricting trade against long-term economic costs from prohibition.\n- Implication: States calibrate wartime commercial policy by assessing both conversion time and revenue generated by trades."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Case study: World War I dynamics",
      "content": "- Britain and Germany frequently adjusted commercial policies as the war progressed and expectations about duration and stakes changed.\n- Britain: initially lax policy based on anticipation of a short war; policy tightened as the war dragged on.\n- Germany: implemented a more prohibitive policy based on dire predictions about the stakes, but ultimately allowed for more trade once the conflict proved protracted."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Modern context: global value chains and strategic calculations",
      "content": "- Modern strategic calculations are complicated by global value chains and economic interdependence of major trading partners.\n- Grinberg’s argument implies that decoupling in these circumstances is highly unlikely even amid heightened tension.\n- Through line of the book: Economic cooperation can thrive even in the most hostile times.\n\nF&D Magazine review by ELIZABETH VAN HEUVELEN, September 2025; review of Mariya Grinberg, Trade in War: Economic Cooperation across Enemy Lines, Cornell University Press, 2025, 259 pp., $48.\n\n---\n\n Content in this bundle\n\n- Hope Despite Hostility\n  - Hope Despite Hostility (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - Hope Despite Hostility (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n\n---\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/fandd/issues/2025/09/book-review-hope-despite-hostility-elizabeth-van-heuvelen"
    }
  ],
  "bullets": [
    "[Markdown version](/en/publications/fandd/issues/2025/09/book-review-hope-despite-hostility-elizabeth-van-heuvelen/index.md)",
    "[Structured JSON version](/en/publications/fandd/issues/2025/09/book-review-hope-despite-hostility-elizabeth-van-heuvelen/index.json)",
    "[Bundle manifest](/en/publications/fandd/issues/2025/09/book-review-hope-despite-hostility-elizabeth-van-heuvelen/bundle-manifest.json)",
    "Authors: ELIZABETH VAN HEUVELEN",
    "Published: September 3, 2025",
    "Book reviewed: Trade in War: Economic Cooperation across Enemy Lines by Mariya Grinberg, Cornell University Press, Ithaca, NY, 2025, 259 pp., $48.",
    "Reviewer: ELIZABETH VAN HEUVELEN, senior economist in the IMF’s Strategy, Policy, and Review Department.",
    "Core question: Why do warring countries trade with each other?",
    "Central argument: States allow as much wartime trade as makes military sense and prohibit as much militarily dangerous trade as is economically viable.",
    "Trade during wartime was once considered a nonstarter because it was seen as contributing to military capability.",
    "The introduction of “neutral rights” during the Crimean War caused a fundamental shift in thinking about trade during war—nuanced trade policy could replace the extreme practice of severing all trade.",
    "Anecdote: A large amount of produce already paid for by France became stuck in Russian ports because of late-melting ice in the Baltic Sea; this circumstance enabled France to persuade Britain and Russia to allow the shipment through despite the ongoing war.",
    "Outcome: A declaration on the rights of neutrals and eventual adoption of the Declaration of Paris, which codified such practices through subsequent conflicts and allowed trade to continue.",
    "Key concept: “conversion time” — the time it takes for trade products to be converted into military capability.",
    "Decision rule emphasized: Weigh immediate military benefits of restricting trade against long-term economic costs from prohibition.",
    "Implication: States calibrate wartime commercial policy by assessing both conversion time and revenue generated by trades.",
    "Britain and Germany frequently adjusted commercial policies as the war progressed and expectations about duration and stakes changed.",
    "Britain: initially lax policy based on anticipation of a short war; policy tightened as the war dragged on.",
    "Germany: implemented a more prohibitive policy based on dire predictions about the stakes, but ultimately allowed for more trade once the conflict proved protracted.",
    "Modern strategic calculations are complicated by global value chains and economic interdependence of major trading partners.",
    "Grinberg’s argument implies that decoupling in these circumstances is highly unlikely even amid heightened tension.",
    "Through line of the book: Economic cooperation can thrive even in the most hostile times.",
    "**Hope Despite Hostility**"
  ],
  "related": [
    {
      "title": "Hope Despite Hostility",
      "role": "document",
      "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/fandd/article/2025/09/books-van-heuvelen.pdf",
      "summary": {
        "path": "/-/media/files/publications/fandd/article/2025/09/books-van-heuvelen.pdf.md",
        "mime": "text/markdown"
      },
      "binary": {
        "path": "/-/media/files/publications/fandd/article/2025/09/books-van-heuvelen.pdf",
        "mime": "application/pdf"
      }
    }
  ],
  "alternates": {
    "markdown": "/en/publications/fandd/issues/2025/09/book-review-hope-despite-hostility-elizabeth-van-heuvelen/index.md",
    "json": "/en/publications/fandd/issues/2025/09/book-review-hope-despite-hostility-elizabeth-van-heuvelen/index.json",
    "bundleManifest": "/en/publications/fandd/issues/2025/09/book-review-hope-despite-hostility-elizabeth-van-heuvelen/bundle-manifest.json"
  },
  "generatedAtUtc": "2026-09-15T19:59:00.836Z"
}