{
  "title": "Graduating into Uncertainty",
  "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/en/publications/fandd/issues/2026/09/graduating-into-uncertainty-harry-jacques",
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  "summary": "A record youth cohort enters developing economy job markets amid daunting technological change",
  "sections": [
    {
      "heading": "Overview",
      "content": "- Article by Harry Jacques published in September 2026 in F&D Magazine.\n- Theme: A record youth cohort entering developing-economy job markets amid rapid technological change and heightened economic uncertainty.\n- Central anecdote: Saharat Chuaikaew, a 21-year-old KMUTT engineering student in Thailand, juggling an internship, studies, and volunteer IT work while worrying that AI reduces demand for entry-level technical roles."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Record youth cohort and labor-market pressures",
      "content": "- Global projection: \"About 1.2 billion people will join the labor market in developing economies over the next decade.\"\n- Historical context: A half-century ago there were \"about 500 million young adults set to enter the workforce across the world’s emerging market and developing economies.\"\n- Macroeconomic backdrop:\n  - Global growth described as \"roughly a third lower\" than around the turn of the century.\n  - Succession of shocks cited: pandemic-era inflation, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, recent volatility in energy markets—contributing to squeezed spending and higher living costs.\n- Regional vulnerabilities:\n  - Example: \"About 60 percent of Thailand’s oil imports... come from the Persian Gulf.\"\n  - Social and political pressures: protests and unrest tied to fuel prices and purchasing power in Indonesia and Sri Lanka; in India a remark by the chief justice helping to precipitate a protest movement and the education minister’s resignation."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Technological change and AI implications",
      "content": "- Concern: AI can substitute for complex tasks previously assigned to junior or entry-level technical staff, reducing demand for some entry-level roles.\n- Dual potential of AI:\n  - Positive: \"AI has the potential to deliver gains in growth and productivity.\"\n  - Negative: If adoption outpaces skills development, AI \"could also intensify labor market pressures for young workers.\"\n- Labor-market mismatch: Even when jobs exist, there is \"a persistent mismatch between available and graduate skills.\"\n- Institutional responses: KMUTT acquired licenses for 1,000 students to be trained in how to use AI to further their careers."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Regional examples and case studies",
      "content": "- Thailand:\n  - Student example: Saharat Chuaikaew balancing university, internship at an energy drink factory, and volunteer IT work.\n  - Unemployment statistics: For ages 15–24, \"3.9 percent\" unemployed last year; for the same age group with postsecondary education, unemployment was \"13.2 percent.\"\n  - Investment: For Q1 of this year Thailand’s investment board recorded applications worth \"873,741 million Thai baht ($27.3 billion)\" across 48 digital projects, mostly in data centers and cloud services.\n- Southeast Asia and South Asia patterns:\n  - IMF research: \"Youth unemployment is elevated across Asia but is often highest among those with the most advanced education.\"\n  - South Asia examples: joblessness among the most educated young people \"ranging from about 36 percent in Bangladesh to 43 percent in Sri Lanka.\"\n  - ILO study (July): generative AI \"could affect the work of nearly 80 million people across Southeast Asia,\" though the ILO \"sees little evidence yet of widespread job losses.\""
    },
    {
      "heading": "Policy implications and recommendations (as stated in the article)",
      "content": "- Rethink education and reskilling broadly:\n  - Make universities and technical programs \"more responsive to employer demand.\"\n  - Equip graduates \"with skills that firms actually need.\"\n- Broaden career openness:\n  - Encourage graduates to consider public sector and alternative employment routes, as suggested by family and institutional advisors in the article.\n- Institutional training interventions:\n  - Example action: university-provided AI training licenses for students (KMUTT: 1,000 students)."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Key statistics and figures (preserved exactly as in source)",
      "content": "- \"1.2 billion\" people entering developing-economy labor markets over the next decade.\n- \"500 million\" young adults entering the workforce a half-century ago.\n- Global growth \"roughly a third lower\" than around the turn of the century.\n- \"About 60 percent\" of Thailand’s oil imports come from the Persian Gulf.\n- Thailand youth unemployment: \"3.9 percent\" for ages 15–24; \"13.2 percent\" for ages 15–24 with postsecondary education.\n- South Asia educated youth joblessness: \"about 36 percent in Bangladesh to 43 percent in Sri Lanka.\"\n- Thailand Q1 digital project applications: \"873,741 million Thai baht ($27.3 billion)\" across 48 projects.\n- ILO July finding: generative AI could affect \"nearly 80 million people across Southeast Asia.\"\n\nSource: Graduating into Uncertainty, Harry Jacques, F&D Magazine, September 2026.\n\n---\n\n Content in this bundle\n\n- Graduating Into Uncertainty\n  - Graduating Into Uncertainty (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - Graduating Into Uncertainty (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n\n---\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/fandd/issues/2026/09/graduating-into-uncertainty-harry-jacques"
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    "Authors: Harry Jacques",
    "Published: September 2, 2026",
    "Article by Harry Jacques published in September 2026 in F&D Magazine.",
    "Theme: A record youth cohort entering developing-economy job markets amid rapid technological change and heightened economic uncertainty.",
    "Central anecdote: Saharat Chuaikaew, a 21-year-old KMUTT engineering student in Thailand, juggling an internship, studies, and volunteer IT work while worrying that AI reduces demand for entry-level technical roles.",
    "Global projection: \"About 1.2 billion people will join the labor market in developing economies over the next decade.\"",
    "Historical context: A half-century ago there were \"about 500 million young adults set to enter the workforce across the world’s emerging market and developing economies.\"",
    "Macroeconomic backdrop:",
    "Regional vulnerabilities:",
    "Concern: AI can substitute for complex tasks previously assigned to junior or entry-level technical staff, reducing demand for some entry-level roles.",
    "Dual potential of AI:",
    "Labor-market mismatch: Even when jobs exist, there is \"a persistent mismatch between available and graduate skills.\"",
    "Institutional responses: KMUTT acquired licenses for 1,000 students to be trained in how to use AI to further their careers.",
    "Thailand:",
    "Southeast Asia and South Asia patterns:",
    "Rethink education and reskilling broadly:",
    "Broaden career openness:",
    "Institutional training interventions:",
    "\"1.2 billion\" people entering developing-economy labor markets over the next decade.",
    "\"500 million\" young adults entering the workforce a half-century ago.",
    "Global growth \"roughly a third lower\" than around the turn of the century.",
    "\"About 60 percent\" of Thailand’s oil imports come from the Persian Gulf.",
    "Thailand youth unemployment: \"3.9 percent\" for ages 15–24; \"13.2 percent\" for ages 15–24 with postsecondary education.",
    "South Asia educated youth joblessness: \"about 36 percent in Bangladesh to 43 percent in Sri Lanka.\"",
    "Thailand Q1 digital project applications: \"873,741 million Thai baht ($27.3 billion)\" across 48 projects.",
    "ILO July finding: generative AI could affect \"nearly 80 million people across Southeast Asia.\"",
    "**Graduating Into Uncertainty**"
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