## Graduating into Uncertainty

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**Canonical URL:** [Graduating into Uncertainty](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/fandd/issues/2026/09/graduating-into-uncertainty-harry-jacques)

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## Bibliographic details
- Authors: Harry Jacques
- Published: September 2, 2026

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### Overview
- Article by Harry Jacques published in September 2026 in F&D Magazine.
- Theme: A record youth cohort entering developing-economy job markets amid rapid technological change and heightened economic uncertainty.
- Central anecdote: Saharat Chuaikaew, a 21-year-old KMUTT engineering student in Thailand, juggling an internship, studies, and volunteer IT work while worrying that AI reduces demand for entry-level technical roles.

### Record youth cohort and labor-market pressures
- Global projection: "About 1.2 billion people will join the labor market in developing economies over the next decade."
- Historical context: A half-century ago there were "about 500 million young adults set to enter the workforce across the world’s emerging market and developing economies."
- Macroeconomic backdrop:
  - Global growth described as "roughly a third lower" than around the turn of the century.
  - Succession of shocks cited: pandemic-era inflation, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, recent volatility in energy markets—contributing to squeezed spending and higher living costs.
- Regional vulnerabilities:
  - Example: "About 60 percent of Thailand’s oil imports... come from the Persian Gulf."
  - Social and political pressures: protests and unrest tied to fuel prices and purchasing power in Indonesia and Sri Lanka; in India a remark by the chief justice helping to precipitate a protest movement and the education minister’s resignation.

### Technological change and AI implications
- Concern: AI can substitute for complex tasks previously assigned to junior or entry-level technical staff, reducing demand for some entry-level roles.
- Dual potential of AI:
  - Positive: "AI has the potential to deliver gains in growth and productivity."
  - Negative: If adoption outpaces skills development, AI "could also intensify labor market pressures for young workers."
- Labor-market mismatch: Even when jobs exist, there is "a persistent mismatch between available and graduate skills."
- Institutional responses: KMUTT acquired licenses for 1,000 students to be trained in how to use AI to further their careers.

### Regional examples and case studies
- Thailand:
  - Student example: Saharat Chuaikaew balancing university, internship at an energy drink factory, and volunteer IT work.
  - Unemployment statistics: For ages 15–24, "3.9 percent" unemployed last year; for the same age group with postsecondary education, unemployment was "13.2 percent."
  - Investment: For Q1 of this year Thailand’s investment board recorded applications worth "873,741 million Thai baht ($27.3 billion)" across 48 digital projects, mostly in data centers and cloud services.
- Southeast Asia and South Asia patterns:
  - IMF research: "Youth unemployment is elevated across Asia but is often highest among those with the most advanced education."
  - South Asia examples: joblessness among the most educated young people "ranging from about 36 percent in Bangladesh to 43 percent in Sri Lanka."
  - ILO study (July): generative AI "could affect the work of nearly 80 million people across Southeast Asia," though the ILO "sees little evidence yet of widespread job losses."

### Policy implications and recommendations (as stated in the article)
- Rethink education and reskilling broadly:
  - Make universities and technical programs "more responsive to employer demand."
  - Equip graduates "with skills that firms actually need."
- Broaden career openness:
  - Encourage graduates to consider public sector and alternative employment routes, as suggested by family and institutional advisors in the article.
- Institutional training interventions:
  - Example action: university-provided AI training licenses for students (KMUTT: 1,000 students).

### Key statistics and figures (preserved exactly as in source)
- "1.2 billion" people entering developing-economy labor markets over the next decade.
- "500 million" young adults entering the workforce a half-century ago.
- Global growth "roughly a third lower" than around the turn of the century.
- "About 60 percent" of Thailand’s oil imports come from the Persian Gulf.
- Thailand youth unemployment: "3.9 percent" for ages 15–24; "13.2 percent" for ages 15–24 with postsecondary education.
- South Asia educated youth joblessness: "about 36 percent in Bangladesh to 43 percent in Sri Lanka."
- Thailand Q1 digital project applications: "873,741 million Thai baht ($27.3 billion)" across 48 projects.
- ILO July finding: generative AI could affect "nearly 80 million people across Southeast Asia."

*Source: Graduating into Uncertainty, Harry Jacques, F&D Magazine, September 2026.*

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_Source: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/fandd/issues/2026/09/graduating-into-uncertainty-harry-jacques_