{ "title": "Aging Is the Real Population Bomb", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/en/publications/fandd/issues/series/analytical-series/aging-is-the-real-population-bomb-bloom-zucker", "canonical": "https://www.imf.org/en/publications/fandd/issues/series/analytical-series/aging-is-the-real-population-bomb-bloom-zucker", "overlayPath": "/en/publications/fandd/issues/series/analytical-series/aging-is-the-real-population-bomb-bloom-zucker/index.md", "summary": "Population aging is the top global demographic trend; the pandemic can teach us how to prepare for it", "sections": [ { "heading": "Key findings on demographic trends", "content": "- Total world population passed the 8 billion milestone on November 15, 2022.\n- Progression from 7 to 8 billion people took 12 years.\n- World’s rate of population growth has slowed appreciably in recent decades and is projected to continue slowing.\n- India is projected to surpass China in 2023 to become the most populous country; India’s average annual rate of population growth is projected at 0.7 percent during 2020–40, below the global average of 0.8 percent and just half its 2000–20 rate.\n- UN projections signal an increase in the number of countries experiencing annual population decline, from 41 in 2022 to 88 in 2050 (with China included throughout).\n- COVID-19 pandemic: an estimated 15 million direct and indirect COVID-19–related deaths and an almost two-year decline in life expectancy worldwide during the first two years of the pandemic (UNDESA 2022).\n- Global life expectancy: 34 years in 1913; 72 years in 2022 and expected to continue increasing.\n- Between 1970 and 2020, fertility dropped in every country in the world.\n- When the UN and WHO were established, there were seven times more children under age 15 than people 65 and older; by 2050 these groups will be about the same size.\n- Between 2000 and 2050, the global share of people 80 and older will rise to almost 5 percent.\n- Population growth is disproportionately high among low-income countries and in Africa and disproportionately low among middle- and (especially) high-income countries and in Europe.\n- Over 96 percent of the world’s people are still living in the countries of their birth." }, { "heading": "Core conclusion and risks", "content": "- The most formidable demographic challenge is population aging (owing to declining fertility, increasing longevity, and the progression of large cohorts into older ages), not rapid population growth.\n- Potential consequences of inaction:\n - A dwindling workforce straining to support burgeoning numbers of retirees.\n - An explosion of age-related morbidity and associated health care costs.\n - Declining quality of life among older people for lack of human, financial, and institutional resources.\n- Population aging also signals the prospect of widespread depopulation in some countries." }, { "heading": "Demographic preparedness: objectives and behavioral changes", "content": "- Attainable goals:\n - Improving reproductive health.\n - Equipping people with human and physical capital.\n - Ensuring well-functioning labor and capital markets.\n - Establishing institutions and policies that limit environmental burdens.\n - Promoting healthy aging.\n- Physical activity recommendations (WHO):\n - Adults ages 18–64: 150–300 minutes of moderate aerobic physical activity a week.\n - Adults 65 and older: augment physical activity with balance and strength training three days a week.\n - Adolescents: 60 minutes a day.\n- Current shortfalls:\n - One in four adults worldwide fails to meet adult physical activity standards (WHO 2020).\n - More than 80 percent of adolescents fail to meet the WHO recommendation.\n- Lifestyle interventions:\n - Policies to support travel on foot or by bicycle.\n - Alliances of schools, communities, workplaces, health systems, and governments to provide incentives and safe spaces for physical activity.\n - Encouraging healthier diets low in sugar, sodium, saturated fat, and calories.\n - Reducing tobacco use and unsafe alcohol consumption." }, { "heading": "Investment and infrastructure priorities", "content": "- Age-friendly infrastructure:\n - Residential and commercial construction emphasizing well-ventilated buildings that rely on clean fuels to mitigate indoor air pollution.\n - Electrified mass transit and ease of access for mobility-constrained older people.\n- Human capital investment:\n - Training and skills programs to increase productivity and encourage participation of underrepresented groups (mothers and older people).\n - Investments in primary and secondary education to shore up teaching of critical skills and cultivate innovators.\n- Institutional and policy reforms:\n - Promote access to quality family planning supplies and services.\n - Allow more choice about the age of retirement.\n - Incentivize individual saving for retirement.\n - Promote economic sectors with opportunities for older workers.\n - Develop and strengthen long-term-care systems.\n - Promote disease prevention and early detection.\n - Relax restrictions on immigration to correct mismatches between jobs and working-age populations.\n- Migration and remittances:\n - Increased migration could relieve demographic pressures and increase remittances.\n - A recent World Bank report estimates that lowering remittance fees by 2 percent would result in an annual savings of $12 billion for migrants from lower-middle-income countries (Ratha et al., 2022).\n - Liberalization of international migration policies could magnify “brain drains.”" }, { "heading": "Technology and innovation", "content": "- Promising technological avenues:\n - Health technology: development of safe and effective vaccines; wearable health monitoring sensors.\n - Assistive devices: robots.\n - Information technology: interoperable electronic medical records and improved population-level data on aging.\n- Incentivizing development and expansion of these technologies is a promising path for future gains." }, { "heading": "Lessons from the COVID-19 pandemic relevant to aging", "content": "- The pandemic underscored the need for enhanced preparedness and identified practical lessons:\n - Identify gaps in the care of societies’ most vulnerable.\n - Use technology to connect the homebound.\n - Reevaluate work/home life balance for potential long-term health benefits.\n - Renewed focus on the importance of mental health.\n- The pandemic experience offers a pathway to reorient and reinvigorate approaches to healthy aging.\n\nF&D Magazine. “Aging Is the Real Population Bomb.” DAVID E. BLOOM and LEO M. ZUCKER. June 2023. Published on July 11, 2023.\n\n---\n\n Content in this bundle\n\n- Aging Is the Real Population Bomb\n - Aging Is the Real Population Bomb (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - Aging Is the Real Population Bomb (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n\n---\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/fandd/issues/series/analytical-series/aging-is-the-real-population-bomb-bloom-zucker" } ], "bullets": [ "[Markdown version](/en/publications/fandd/issues/series/analytical-series/aging-is-the-real-population-bomb-bloom-zucker/index.md)", "[Structured JSON version](/en/publications/fandd/issues/series/analytical-series/aging-is-the-real-population-bomb-bloom-zucker/index.json)", "[Bundle manifest](/en/publications/fandd/issues/series/analytical-series/aging-is-the-real-population-bomb-bloom-zucker/bundle-manifest.json)", "Authors: DAVID E BLOOM, LEO ZUCKER", "Published: November 14, 2022", "Total world population passed the 8 billion milestone on November 15, 2022.", "Progression from 7 to 8 billion people took 12 years.", "World’s rate of population growth has slowed appreciably in recent decades and is projected to continue slowing.", "India is projected to surpass China in 2023 to become the most populous country; India’s average annual rate of population growth is projected at 0.7 percent during 2020–40, below the global average of 0.8 percent and just half its 2000–20 rate.", "UN projections signal an increase in the number of countries experiencing annual population decline, from 41 in 2022 to 88 in 2050 (with China included throughout).", "COVID-19 pandemic: an estimated 15 million direct and indirect COVID-19–related deaths and an almost two-year decline in life expectancy worldwide during the first two years of the pandemic (UNDESA 2022).", "Global life expectancy: 34 years in 1913; 72 years in 2022 and expected to continue increasing.", "Between 1970 and 2020, fertility dropped in every country in the world.", "When the UN and WHO were established, there were seven times more children under age 15 than people 65 and older; by 2050 these groups will be about the same size.", "Between 2000 and 2050, the global share of people 80 and older will rise to almost 5 percent.", "Population growth is disproportionately high among low-income countries and in Africa and disproportionately low among middle- and (especially) high-income countries and in Europe.", "Over 96 percent of the world’s people are still living in the countries of their birth.", "The most formidable demographic challenge is population aging (owing to declining fertility, increasing longevity, and the progression of large cohorts into older ages), not rapid population growth.", "Potential consequences of inaction:", "Population aging also signals the prospect of widespread depopulation in some countries.", "Attainable goals:", "Physical activity recommendations (WHO):", "Current shortfalls:", "Lifestyle interventions:", "Age-friendly infrastructure:", "Human capital investment:", "Institutional and policy reforms:", "Migration and remittances:", "Promising technological avenues:", "Incentivizing development and expansion of these technologies is a promising path for future gains.", "The pandemic underscored the need for enhanced preparedness and identified practical lessons:", "The pandemic experience offers a pathway to reorient and reinvigorate approaches to healthy aging.", "**Aging Is the Real Population Bomb**" ], "related": [ { "title": "Aging Is the Real Population Bomb", "role": "document", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/fandd/article/2023/june/bloom-june23.pdf", "summary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/fandd/article/2023/june/bloom-june23.pdf.md", "mime": "text/markdown" }, "binary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/fandd/article/2023/june/bloom-june23.pdf", "mime": "application/pdf" } } ], "alternates": { "markdown": "/en/publications/fandd/issues/series/analytical-series/aging-is-the-real-population-bomb-bloom-zucker/index.md", "json": "/en/publications/fandd/issues/series/analytical-series/aging-is-the-real-population-bomb-bloom-zucker/index.json", "bundleManifest": "/en/publications/fandd/issues/series/analytical-series/aging-is-the-real-population-bomb-bloom-zucker/bundle-manifest.json" }, "generatedAtUtc": "2026-09-15T20:45:03.179Z" }