## Aging Is the Real Population Bomb

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**Canonical URL:** [Aging Is the Real Population Bomb](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/fandd/issues/series/analytical-series/aging-is-the-real-population-bomb-bloom-zucker)

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## Bibliographic details
- Authors: DAVID E BLOOM, LEO ZUCKER
- Published: November 14, 2022

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### Key findings on demographic trends
- Total world population passed the 8 billion milestone on November 15, 2022.
- Progression from 7 to 8 billion people took 12 years.
- World’s rate of population growth has slowed appreciably in recent decades and is projected to continue slowing.
- India is projected to surpass China in 2023 to become the most populous country; India’s average annual rate of population growth is projected at 0.7 percent during 2020–40, below the global average of 0.8 percent and just half its 2000–20 rate.
- UN projections signal an increase in the number of countries experiencing annual population decline, from 41 in 2022 to 88 in 2050 (with China included throughout).
- COVID-19 pandemic: an estimated 15 million direct and indirect COVID-19–related deaths and an almost two-year decline in life expectancy worldwide during the first two years of the pandemic (UNDESA 2022).
- Global life expectancy: 34 years in 1913; 72 years in 2022 and expected to continue increasing.
- Between 1970 and 2020, fertility dropped in every country in the world.
- When the UN and WHO were established, there were seven times more children under age 15 than people 65 and older; by 2050 these groups will be about the same size.
- Between 2000 and 2050, the global share of people 80 and older will rise to almost 5 percent.
- Population growth is disproportionately high among low-income countries and in Africa and disproportionately low among middle- and (especially) high-income countries and in Europe.
- Over 96 percent of the world’s people are still living in the countries of their birth.

### Core conclusion and risks
- The most formidable demographic challenge is population aging (owing to declining fertility, increasing longevity, and the progression of large cohorts into older ages), not rapid population growth.
- Potential consequences of inaction:
  - A dwindling workforce straining to support burgeoning numbers of retirees.
  - An explosion of age-related morbidity and associated health care costs.
  - Declining quality of life among older people for lack of human, financial, and institutional resources.
- Population aging also signals the prospect of widespread depopulation in some countries.

### Demographic preparedness: objectives and behavioral changes
- Attainable goals:
  - Improving reproductive health.
  - Equipping people with human and physical capital.
  - Ensuring well-functioning labor and capital markets.
  - Establishing institutions and policies that limit environmental burdens.
  - Promoting healthy aging.
- Physical activity recommendations (WHO):
  - Adults ages 18–64: 150–300 minutes of moderate aerobic physical activity a week.
  - Adults 65 and older: augment physical activity with balance and strength training three days a week.
  - Adolescents: 60 minutes a day.
- Current shortfalls:
  - One in four adults worldwide fails to meet adult physical activity standards (WHO 2020).
  - More than 80 percent of adolescents fail to meet the WHO recommendation.
- Lifestyle interventions:
  - Policies to support travel on foot or by bicycle.
  - Alliances of schools, communities, workplaces, health systems, and governments to provide incentives and safe spaces for physical activity.
  - Encouraging healthier diets low in sugar, sodium, saturated fat, and calories.
  - Reducing tobacco use and unsafe alcohol consumption.

### Investment and infrastructure priorities
- Age-friendly infrastructure:
  - Residential and commercial construction emphasizing well-ventilated buildings that rely on clean fuels to mitigate indoor air pollution.
  - Electrified mass transit and ease of access for mobility-constrained older people.
- Human capital investment:
  - Training and skills programs to increase productivity and encourage participation of underrepresented groups (mothers and older people).
  - Investments in primary and secondary education to shore up teaching of critical skills and cultivate innovators.
- Institutional and policy reforms:
  - Promote access to quality family planning supplies and services.
  - Allow more choice about the age of retirement.
  - Incentivize individual saving for retirement.
  - Promote economic sectors with opportunities for older workers.
  - Develop and strengthen long-term-care systems.
  - Promote disease prevention and early detection.
  - Relax restrictions on immigration to correct mismatches between jobs and working-age populations.
- Migration and remittances:
  - Increased migration could relieve demographic pressures and increase remittances.
  - A recent World Bank report estimates that lowering remittance fees by 2 percent would result in an annual savings of $12 billion for migrants from lower-middle-income countries (Ratha et al., 2022).
  - Liberalization of international migration policies could magnify “brain drains.”

### Technology and innovation
- Promising technological avenues:
  - Health technology: development of safe and effective vaccines; wearable health monitoring sensors.
  - Assistive devices: robots.
  - Information technology: interoperable electronic medical records and improved population-level data on aging.
- Incentivizing development and expansion of these technologies is a promising path for future gains.

### Lessons from the COVID-19 pandemic relevant to aging
- The pandemic underscored the need for enhanced preparedness and identified practical lessons:
  - Identify gaps in the care of societies’ most vulnerable.
  - Use technology to connect the homebound.
  - Reevaluate work/home life balance for potential long-term health benefits.
  - Renewed focus on the importance of mental health.
- The pandemic experience offers a pathway to reorient and reinvigorate approaches to healthy aging.

*F&D Magazine. “Aging Is the Real Population Bomb.” DAVID E. BLOOM and LEO M. ZUCKER. June 2023. Published on July 11, 2023.*

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_Source: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/fandd/issues/series/analytical-series/aging-is-the-real-population-bomb-bloom-zucker_