{ "title": "IMF Fiscal Monitor -- Addressing Fiscal Challenges to Reduce Economic Risks, September 2011", "publication": "Fiscal Monitor, September 20, 2011", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/en/publications/fm/issues/2016/12/31/addressing-fiscal-challenges-to-reduce-economic-risks", "canonical": "https://www.imf.org/en/publications/fm/issues/2016/12/31/addressing-fiscal-challenges-to-reduce-economic-risks", "overlayPath": "/en/publications/fm/issues/2016/12/31/addressing-fiscal-challenges-to-reduce-economic-risks/index.md", "summary": "The Fiscal Monitor was launched in 2009 to survey and analyze the latest public finance developments, update fiscal implications of the crisis and medium-term fiscal projections, and assess policies to put public finances on a sustainable footing.", "publishDate": "2011-09-20", "series": "Fiscal Monitor", "sections": [ { "heading": "Overview and purpose", "content": "- The Fiscal Monitor was launched in 2009 to survey and analyze the latest public finance developments, update fiscal implications of the crisis and medium-term fiscal projections, and assess policies to put public finances on a sustainable footing.\n- It is prepared twice a year by the IMF's Fiscal Affairs Department.\n- Publication date: September 2011." }, { "heading": "Key cross-cutting assessment", "content": "- Despite progress in addressing key fiscal weaknesses in many countries, significant policy challenges remain in advanced, emerging, and low-income economies.\n- Downside risks to growth have increased, altering the environment for fiscal policy decisions.\n- The appropriate pace of adjustment in the short run depends, for each country, on:\n - the intensity of the market pressure it confronts,\n - the magnitude of the risks to growth it faces,\n - the credibility of its medium-term program." }, { "heading": "Advanced economies", "content": "- Many advanced economies face very large adjustment needs to reduce risks related to high debt ratios.\n- The euro area needs to:\n - sustain fiscal consolidation,\n - minimize its growth fallout,\n - address concerns about the adequacy of crisis resolution mechanisms.\n- In Japan and the United States, the report emphasizes the need for sufficiently detailed and ambitious plans to reduce deficits and debts to prevent credibility from weakening.\n- Figures and tables referenced for advanced economies include:\n - G-7 Sovereign Bond Yields\n - Sovereign Bond Yield Spreads over German Bunds\n - Fiscal Fundamentals in the G-7 Economies plus Spain, 2011\n - Advanced Economies: Average Bond Maturity\n - Selected Advanced Economies: General Government Gross Debt\n - Advanced Economies: Change in Overall Balance and General Government Gross Debt, 2010–11\n - Advanced Economies: Decomposition of 2011 Debt Accumulation\n - Cyclically Adjusted Primary Balance That Needs to Be Maintained in 2020–30 to Achieve Debt Target by 2030\n - Largest Average Primary Surplus over a 10-Year Period" }, { "heading": "Emerging economies", "content": "- Many emerging economies need to make faster progress in strengthening fiscal fundamentals before cyclical factors or spillovers from advanced economies turn against them.\n- Figures and tables referenced for emerging economies include:\n - Emerging Economies: Median 5-Year CDS Spreads\n - Emerging Economies: Differences in Cyclically Adjusted Primary Balances, 2011, Compared with the Precrisis Period\n - Determinants of Domestic Bond Yields in Emerging Economies\n - Comparing Fiscal Fundamentals across Emerging Economies, 2011\n - Selected Emerging Economies: Gross Financing Needs, 2011–12\n - Emerging Economies: Change in Cyclically Adjusted Primary Balance and in Output Gap, 2011" }, { "heading": "Low-income countries", "content": "- Low-income countries need to rebuild fiscal buffers while addressing spending needs.\n- Specific topics and analyses include:\n - Global Fuel and Food Price Shocks and Fiscal Performance in Low-Income Countries\n - Confronting Trade-Offs: Accommodating Spending Pressures in Low-Income Countries\n - Adjusting Public Capital Stock for Investment Inefficiency" }, { "heading": "Debt legacy and fiscal sustainability", "content": "- The report examines how long it will take to lower public debt and assesses the legacy of the crisis on public finances.\n- Appendixes include methodological analyses such as:\n - The Importance of Monitoring Both Gross and Net Debt\n - Stock-Flow Adjustments and Their Determinants\n - Methodological and Statistical Appendix\n- Tables and indices relevant to debt and sustainability:\n - The Fiscal Indicators Index\n - Fiscal Indicators Index by Region, 2001–11\n - Components of the Fiscal Indicators Index, 1996–2011\n - Assessment of Fiscal Sustainability Risks, 2011\n - Fiscal Monitor Database and Statistical Tables (General Government Balance, Primary Balance, Cyclically Adjusted Balances, Expenditure, Revenue, Gross Debt, Net Debt, Structural Fiscal Indicators)" }, { "heading": "Notable special topics, boxes, and supporting material", "content": "- Boxes and case analyses highlighted in the report include:\n - United States: Government-Sponsored Enterprises and Contingent Liabilities\n - Risks to the Baseline\n - Fiscal Developments in Oil-Producing Economies\n - Financial Sector Support and Recovery to Date\n - \"Fiscal Devaluation\": What Is It—and Does It Work?\n - Insights for Privatization Plans from Previous Large Episodes\n- Technical information and user guidance provided:\n - Using PDF Files\n - Using CSV Files\n - Viewing Webcasts\n - Email notification sign-up" }, { "heading": "Contents structure (selected)", "content": "- Preface\n- Executive Summary\n- 1. Introduction\n- 2. Restoring Order: Reassuring Markets about Fiscal Sustainability in the Euro Area\n- 3. The Dog That Didn't Bark (So Far): Low Interest Rates in the United States and Japan\n- 4. Too Good to Be True? Fiscal Developments in Emerging Economies\n- 5. The Legacy of the Crisis: How Long Will It Take to Lower Public Debt?\n- 6. Confronting Trade-Offs: Accommodating Spending Pressures in Low-Income Countries\n- 7. Conclusion\n- Appendixes and Glossary\n- Figures and Tables (numerous items listed for 2010–11 and 2011–12 data)\n\nIMF Fiscal Monitor -- Addressing Fiscal Challenges to Reduce Economic Risks, September 2011\n\n---\n\n Content in this bundle\n\n- معالجة تحديات المالية العامة للحد من المخاطر الاقتصادية؛ ملخص واف للراصد المالي؛ سبتمبر 2011\n - معالجة تحديات المالية العامة للحد من المخاطر الاقتصادية؛ ملخص واف للراصد المالي؛ سبتمبر 2011 (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - معالجة تحديات المالية العامة للحد من المخاطر الاقتصادية؛ ملخص واف للراصد المالي؛ سبتمبر 2011 (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- 2011年9月期《财政监测报告》概要: 应对财政挑战减少经济风险, 2011年9月20日\n - 2011年9月期《财政监测报告》概要: 应对财政挑战减少经济风险, 2011年9月20日 (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - 2011年9月期《财政监测报告》概要: 应对财政挑战减少经济风险, 2011年9月20日 (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Moniteur des finances publiques, septembre 2011 - Résumé analytique\n - Moniteur des finances publiques, septembre 2011 - Résumé analytique (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - Moniteur des finances publiques, septembre 2011 - Résumé analytique (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- 財政モニター 2011年9月: 要旨\n - 財政モニター 2011年9月: 要旨 (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - 財政モニター 2011年9月: 要旨 (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Fiscal Monitor - Addressing Fiscal Challenges to Reduce Economic Risks; September 2011\n - Fiscal Monitor - Addressing Fiscal Challenges to Reduce Economic Risks; September 2011 (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - Fiscal Monitor - Addressing Fiscal Challenges to Reduce Economic Risks; September 2011 (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Executive Summary\n - Executive Summary (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - Executive Summary (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- fmpowerpointpdf\n - fmpowerpointpdf (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - fmpowerpointpdf (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Fiscal Monitor - Addressing Fiscal Challenges to Reduce Economic Risks - Preface; September 2011\n - Fiscal Monitor - Addressing Fiscal Challenges to Reduce Economic Risks - Preface; September 2011 (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - Fiscal Monitor - Addressing Fiscal Challenges to Reduce Economic Risks - Preface; September 2011 (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Аналитическое резюме; Бюджетный вестник; сентябрь 2011 года\n - Аналитическое резюме; Бюджетный вестник; сентябрь 2011 года (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - Аналитическое резюме; Бюджетный вестник; сентябрь 2011 года (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Monitor Fiscal: Resumen Ejecutivo; Septiembre de 2011\n - Monitor Fiscal: Resumen Ejecutivo; Septiembre de 2011 (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - Monitor Fiscal: Resumen Ejecutivo; Septiembre de 2011 (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Fmdata\n - Fmdata (XLSX){rel=\"external\" type=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\"}\n\n---\n\n References\n\n- Transcript\n- Using PDF Files\n- Using CSV Files\n- Viewing Webcasts\n- Sign up to receive free e-mail notices when new series and/or country items are posted on the IMF website.\n- Modify your profile\n- Disclaimer\n- Application\n- https://www.imf.org/en/home\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/fm/issues/2016/12/31/addressing-fiscal-challenges-to-reduce-economic-risks" } ], "bullets": [ "[Markdown version](/en/publications/fm/issues/2016/12/31/addressing-fiscal-challenges-to-reduce-economic-risks/index.md)", "[Structured JSON version](/en/publications/fm/issues/2016/12/31/addressing-fiscal-challenges-to-reduce-economic-risks/index.json)", "[Bundle manifest](/en/publications/fm/issues/2016/12/31/addressing-fiscal-challenges-to-reduce-economic-risks/bundle-manifest.json)", "Published: September 20, 2011", "Series: Fiscal Monitor", "The Fiscal Monitor was launched in 2009 to survey and analyze the latest public finance developments, update fiscal implications of the crisis and medium-term fiscal projections, and assess policies to put public finances on a sustainable footing.", "It is prepared twice a year by the IMF's Fiscal Affairs Department.", "Publication date: September 2011.", "Despite progress in addressing key fiscal weaknesses in many countries, significant policy challenges remain in advanced, emerging, and low-income economies.", "Downside risks to growth have increased, altering the environment for fiscal policy decisions.", "The appropriate pace of adjustment in the short run depends, for each country, on:", "Many advanced economies face very large adjustment needs to reduce risks related to high debt ratios.", "The euro area needs to:", "In Japan and the United States, the report emphasizes the need for sufficiently detailed and ambitious plans to reduce deficits and debts to prevent credibility from weakening.", "Figures and tables referenced for advanced economies include:", "Many emerging economies need to make faster progress in strengthening fiscal fundamentals before cyclical factors or spillovers from advanced economies turn against them.", "Figures and tables referenced for emerging economies include:", "Low-income countries need to rebuild fiscal buffers while addressing spending needs.", "Specific topics and analyses include:", "The report examines how long it will take to lower public debt and assesses the legacy of the crisis on public finances.", "Appendixes include methodological analyses such as:", "Tables and indices relevant to debt and sustainability:", "Boxes and case analyses highlighted in the report include:", "Technical information and user guidance provided:", "Preface", "Executive Summary", "1. Introduction", "2. Restoring Order: Reassuring Markets about Fiscal Sustainability in the Euro Area", "3. The Dog That Didn't Bark (So Far): Low Interest Rates in the United States and Japan", "4. Too Good to Be True? Fiscal Developments in Emerging Economies", "5. The Legacy of the Crisis: How Long Will It Take to Lower Public Debt?", "6. Confronting Trade-Offs: Accommodating Spending Pressures in Low-Income Countries", "7. Conclusion", "Appendixes and Glossary", "Figures and Tables (numerous items listed for 2010–11 and 2011–12 data)", "**معالجة تحديات المالية العامة للحد من المخاطر الاقتصادية؛ ملخص واف للراصد المالي؛ سبتمبر 2011**", "**2011年9月期《财政监测报告》概要: 应对财政挑战减少经济风险, 2011年9月20日**", "**Moniteur des finances publiques, septembre 2011 - Résumé analytique**", "**財政モニター 2011年9月: 要旨**", "**Fiscal Monitor - Addressing Fiscal Challenges to Reduce Economic Risks; September 2011**", "**Executive Summary**", "**_fmpowerpointpdf**", "**Fiscal Monitor - Addressing Fiscal Challenges to Reduce Economic Risks - Preface; September 2011**", "**Аналитическое резюме; Бюджетный вестник; сентябрь 2011 года**", "**Monitor Fiscal: Resumen Ejecutivo; Septiembre de 2011**", "**Fmdata**", "[Transcript](https://www.imf.org/external/np/tr/2011/tr092011.htm)", "[Using PDF Files](https://www.imf.org/external/adobetip.htm)", "[Using CSV Files](https://www.imf.org/external/help/csv.htm)", "[Viewing Webcasts](https://www.imf.org/external/help/techwc.htm)", "[Sign up to receive free e-mail notices when new series and/or country items are posted on the IMF website.](https://www.imf.org/en/email-subscription/index)", "[Modify your profile](https://www.imf.org/en/email-subscription/login)", "[Disclaimer](https://www.imf.org/external/terms.htm)", "[Application](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/fm/issues/2016/12/31/app/FiscalMonitoring.html)", "[https://www.imf.org/en/home](https://www.imf.org/en/home)" ], "related": [ { "title": "معالجة تحديات المالية العامة للحد من المخاطر الاقتصادية؛ ملخص واف للراصد المالي؛ سبتمبر 2011", "role": "document", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/websites/imf/imported-flagship-issues/external/arabic/pubs/ft/fm/2011/02/pdf/fmexsa.pdf", "summary": { "path": "/-/media/websites/imf/imported-flagship-issues/external/arabic/pubs/ft/fm/2011/02/pdf/fmexsa.pdf.md", "mime": "text/markdown" }, "binary": { "path": "/-/media/websites/imf/imported-flagship-issues/external/arabic/pubs/ft/fm/2011/02/pdf/fmexsa.pdf", "mime": "application/pdf" } }, { "title": "2011年9月期《财政监测报告》概要: 应对财政挑战减少经济风险, 2011年9月20日", "role": "document", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/websites/imf/imported-flagship-issues/external/chinese/pubs/ft/fm/2011/02/pdf/fmexsc.pdf", "summary": { "path": "/-/media/websites/imf/imported-flagship-issues/external/chinese/pubs/ft/fm/2011/02/pdf/fmexsc.pdf.md", "mime": "text/markdown" }, "binary": { "path": "/-/media/websites/imf/imported-flagship-issues/external/chinese/pubs/ft/fm/2011/02/pdf/fmexsc.pdf", "mime": "application/pdf" } }, { "title": "Moniteur des finances publiques, septembre 2011 - Résumé analytique", "role": "document", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/websites/imf/imported-flagship-issues/external/french/pubs/ft/fm/2011/02/pdf/fmexsf.pdf", "summary": { "path": "/-/media/websites/imf/imported-flagship-issues/external/french/pubs/ft/fm/2011/02/pdf/fmexsf.pdf.md", "mime": "text/markdown" }, "binary": { "path": "/-/media/websites/imf/imported-flagship-issues/external/french/pubs/ft/fm/2011/02/pdf/fmexsf.pdf", "mime": "application/pdf" } }, { "title": "財政モニター 2011年9月: 要旨", "role": "document", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/websites/imf/imported-flagship-issues/external/japanese/pubs/ft/fm/2011/02/pdf/fmexsj.pdf", "summary": { "path": "/-/media/websites/imf/imported-flagship-issues/external/japanese/pubs/ft/fm/2011/02/pdf/fmexsj.pdf.md", "mime": "text/markdown" }, "binary": { "path": "/-/media/websites/imf/imported-flagship-issues/external/japanese/pubs/ft/fm/2011/02/pdf/fmexsj.pdf", "mime": "application/pdf" } }, { "title": "Fiscal Monitor - Addressing Fiscal Challenges to Reduce Economic Risks; September 2011", "role": "document", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/websites/imf/imported-flagship-issues/external/pubs/ft/fm/2011/02/pdf/_fm1102pdf.pdf", "summary": { "path": "/-/media/websites/imf/imported-flagship-issues/external/pubs/ft/fm/2011/02/pdf/_fm1102pdf.pdf.md", "mime": "text/markdown" }, "binary": { "path": "/-/media/websites/imf/imported-flagship-issues/external/pubs/ft/fm/2011/02/pdf/_fm1102pdf.pdf", "mime": "application/pdf" } }, { "title": "Executive Summary", "role": "document", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/websites/imf/imported-flagship-issues/external/pubs/ft/fm/2011/02/pdf/_fmexspdf.pdf", "summary": { "path": "/-/media/websites/imf/imported-flagship-issues/external/pubs/ft/fm/2011/02/pdf/_fmexspdf.pdf.md", "mime": "text/markdown" }, "binary": { "path": "/-/media/websites/imf/imported-flagship-issues/external/pubs/ft/fm/2011/02/pdf/_fmexspdf.pdf", "mime": "application/pdf" } }, { "title": "_fmpowerpointpdf", "role": "document", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/websites/imf/imported-flagship-issues/external/pubs/ft/fm/2011/02/pdf/_fmpowerpointpdf.pdf", "summary": { "path": "/-/media/websites/imf/imported-flagship-issues/external/pubs/ft/fm/2011/02/pdf/_fmpowerpointpdf.pdf.md", "mime": "text/markdown" }, "binary": { "path": "/-/media/websites/imf/imported-flagship-issues/external/pubs/ft/fm/2011/02/pdf/_fmpowerpointpdf.pdf", "mime": "application/pdf" } }, { "title": "Fiscal Monitor - Addressing Fiscal Challenges to Reduce Economic Risks - Preface; 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