{
  "title": "Fiscal Monitor, October 2015: The Commodities Roller Coaster - A Fiscal Framework for Uncertain Times",
  "publication": "Fiscal Monitor, October 7, 2015",
  "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/en/publications/fm/issues/2016/12/31/the-commodities-roller-coaster-a-fiscal-framework-for-uncertain",
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  "summary": "This issue of the Fiscal Monitor examines the conduct of fiscal policy under the uncertainty caused by dependence on natural resource revenues.",
  "sections": [
    {
      "heading": "Summary",
      "content": "- This issue of the Fiscal Monitor examines the conduct of fiscal policy under the uncertainty caused by dependence on natural resource revenues.\n- It draws on extensive past research on the behavior of commodity prices and their implications for macroeconomic outcomes.\n- It draws on extensive IMF technical assistance to resource-rich economies seeking to improve their management of natural resource wealth."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Major themes and focus",
      "content": "- Commodity price fluctuations\n- Commodity dependence and commodity cycles\n- Fiscal policy and fiscal stance in resource-dependent economies\n- Public financial management (PFM) in the context of natural resource revenues\n- Macroeconomic and fiscal forecasts affected by commodity price dynamics\n- Price-smoothing rules and management of resource revenue windfalls\n- Treatment of commodity price upturns, commodity price swings, and oil price shocks"
    },
    {
      "heading": "Subjects and keywords",
      "content": "- Subject: Commodity price fluctuations, Commodity prices, Environment, Expenditure, Fiscal policy, Fiscal stance, Macroeconomic and fiscal forecasts, Natural resources, Prices, Public debt, Public financial management (PFM)\n- Keywords: Africa, Asia and Pacific, commodity cycle, commodity dependence, commodity exporter, commodity price, commodity price cycle, Commodity price fluctuations, commodity price swing, commodity price upturn, Commodity prices, commodity revenue, country abbreviation, def, Fiscal stance, FM, Global, Macroeconomic and fiscal forecasts, Middle East, Natural resources, North Africa, oil price shock, price dynamics, price windfall, price-smoothing rule, resource revenue windfall, statistics manual, unexpected commodity price swing\n\n---\n\n Content in this bundle\n\n- The Commodities Roller Coaster: A Fiscal Framework for Uncertain Times, Fiscal Monitor, October 2015\n  - The Commodities Roller Coaster: A Fiscal Framework for Uncertain Times, Fiscal Monitor, October 2015 (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - The Commodities Roller Coaster: A Fiscal Framework for Uncertain Times, Fiscal Monitor, October 2015 (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n\n---\n\n References\n\n- https://www.imf.org/en/publications/fm\n- United States and the IMF\n- Link to Table of Contents\n- Explore\n- Subscribe\n- More Formats on IMF eLibrary\n- Order a Print Copy\n- Commodity price fluctuations\n- Commodity prices\n- Environment\n- Expenditure\n- Fiscal policy\n- Fiscal stance\n- Macroeconomic and fiscal forecasts\n- Natural resources\n- Prices\n- Public debt\n- Public financial management (PFM)\n- Enhancing Tax Capacity: Revenue Gains from Strengthening Tax Administration\nOctober 24, 2025\n- Development Committee: The Managing Director's Written Statement\nOctober 20, 2025\n- The Managing Director's Global Policy Agenda, Fall 2025: Navigating a World In Transition\nOctober 16, 2025\n- Progress Report to the IMFC on the Activities of the Independent Evaluation Office of the IMF\nOctober 16, 2025\n- https://www.imf.org/en/home\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/fm/issues/2016/12/31/the-commodities-roller-coaster-a-fiscal-framework-for-uncertain"
    }
  ],
  "bullets": [
    "[Markdown version](/en/publications/fm/issues/2016/12/31/the-commodities-roller-coaster-a-fiscal-framework-for-uncertain/index.md)",
    "[Structured JSON version](/en/publications/fm/issues/2016/12/31/the-commodities-roller-coaster-a-fiscal-framework-for-uncertain/index.json)",
    "[Bundle manifest](/en/publications/fm/issues/2016/12/31/the-commodities-roller-coaster-a-fiscal-framework-for-uncertain/bundle-manifest.json)",
    "Published: October 7, 2015",
    "Series: Fiscal Monitor",
    "DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781513570709.089",
    "This issue of the Fiscal Monitor examines the conduct of fiscal policy under the uncertainty caused by dependence on natural resource revenues.",
    "It draws on extensive past research on the behavior of commodity prices and their implications for macroeconomic outcomes.",
    "It draws on extensive IMF technical assistance to resource-rich economies seeking to improve their management of natural resource wealth.",
    "Commodity price fluctuations",
    "Commodity dependence and commodity cycles",
    "Fiscal policy and fiscal stance in resource-dependent economies",
    "Public financial management (PFM) in the context of natural resource revenues",
    "Macroeconomic and fiscal forecasts affected by commodity price dynamics",
    "Price-smoothing rules and management of resource revenue windfalls",
    "Treatment of commodity price upturns, commodity price swings, and oil price shocks",
    "Subject: Commodity price fluctuations, Commodity prices, Environment, Expenditure, Fiscal policy, Fiscal stance, Macroeconomic and fiscal forecasts, Natural resources, Prices, Public debt, Public financial management (PFM)",
    "Keywords: Africa, Asia and Pacific, commodity cycle, commodity dependence, commodity exporter, commodity price, commodity price cycle, Commodity price fluctuations, commodity price swing, commodity price upturn, Commodity prices, commodity revenue, country abbreviation, def, Fiscal stance, FM, Global, Macroeconomic and fiscal forecasts, Middle East, Natural resources, North Africa, oil price shock, price dynamics, price windfall, price-smoothing rule, resource revenue windfall, statistics manual, unexpected commodity price swing",
    "**The Commodities Roller Coaster: A Fiscal Framework for Uncertain Times, Fiscal Monitor, October 2015**",
    "[https://www.imf.org/en/publications/fm](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/fm)",
    "[United States and the IMF](http://www.imf.org/external/country/USA/index.htm)",
    "[Link to Table of Contents](http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/fm/2015/02/fmindex.htm)",
    "[Explore](https://www.elibrary.imf.org/)",
    "[Subscribe](https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/Newsletter/registration)",
    "[More Formats on IMF eLibrary](https://elibrary.imf.org/display/book/9781513570709/9781513570709.xml?cid=lk-com-dsp-imf.org)",
    "[Order a Print Copy](https://www.bookstore.imf.org/cart?isbn=9781513570709)",
    "[Commodity price fluctuations](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/publications-by-subject?subject=Commodity+price+fluctuations)",
    "[Commodity prices](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/publications-by-subject?subject=Commodity+prices)",
    "[Environment](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/publications-by-subject?subject=Environment)",
    "[Expenditure](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/publications-by-subject?subject=Expenditure)",
    "[Fiscal policy](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/publications-by-subject?subject=Fiscal+policy)",
    "[Fiscal stance](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/publications-by-subject?subject=Fiscal+stance)",
    "[Macroeconomic and fiscal forecasts](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/publications-by-subject?subject=Macroeconomic+and+fiscal+forecasts)",
    "[Natural resources](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/publications-by-subject?subject=Natural+resources)",
    "[Prices](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/publications-by-subject?subject=Prices)",
    "[Public debt](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/publications-by-subject?subject=Public+debt)",
    "[Public financial management (PFM)](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/publications-by-subject?subject=Public+financial+management+%28PFM%29)",
    "[Enhancing Tax Capacity: Revenue Gains from Strengthening Tax Administration",
    "[Development Committee: The Managing Director's Written Statement",
    "[The Managing Director's Global Policy Agenda, Fall 2025: Navigating a World In Transition",
    "[Progress Report to the IMFC on the Activities of the Independent Evaluation Office of the IMF"
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