## The Commodities Roller Coaster: A Fiscal Framework for Uncertain Times -- October 2015 _Fiscal Monitor, September 7, 2015_ ## Source details **Canonical URL:** [The Commodities Roller Coaster: A Fiscal Framework for Uncertain Times -- October 2015](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/fm/issues/2016/12/31/the-commodities-roller-coaster) ## Other formats - [Markdown version](/en/publications/fm/issues/2016/12/31/the-commodities-roller-coaster/index.md) - [Structured JSON version](/en/publications/fm/issues/2016/12/31/the-commodities-roller-coaster/index.json) - [Bundle manifest](/en/publications/fm/issues/2016/12/31/the-commodities-roller-coaster/bundle-manifest.json) ## Bibliographic details - Published: September 7, 2015 - Series: Fiscal Monitor --- ### Overview - Natural resource-rich countries experienced an exceptional commodity price boom during the 2000s, with metal and oil prices reaching historic highs. - The more recent reversal in commodity prices demonstrates that commodity prices are volatile, unpredictable, and subject to long-lasting shocks. - Commodity exporters face a need to adjust to a—possibly protracted—period of lower export and fiscal revenues. - This Fiscal Monitor issue examines the conduct of fiscal policy under the uncertainty caused by dependence on natural resource revenues, drawing on past research on commodity-price behavior and IMF technical assistance to resource-rich economies. ### Key findings on commodity cycles and fiscal outcomes - Commodity booms provided a substantial fiscal windfall for resource-rich developing countries during the 2000s, supporting opportunities for economic transformation and development. - Subsequent commodity price reversals have translated into lower export and fiscal revenues, with potentially prolonged effects. - Commodity-price volatility implies significant uncertainty for fiscal planning and macroeconomic stability. ### Fiscal policy implications and recommendations - Fiscal policy for resource-rich countries should adopt a risk-based, comprehensive approach to manage uncertainty from natural resource revenues. - Policy frameworks need to balance short-term stabilization with long-term fiscal management under uncertainty. - Strengthening institutions and transparency is essential for successful long-term management of natural resource wealth. - Fiscal management should prepare for prolonged periods of lower revenues and incorporate precautionary measures and buffers appropriate to countries’ risk tolerance. ### Analytical scope and tools - The analysis draws on extensive past research on commodity-price behavior and implications for macroeconomic outcomes. - The issue incorporates lessons from IMF technical assistance to resource-rich economies aiming to improve management of natural resource wealth. - Emphasis on designing fiscal policies that manage volatility, support growth-enhancing public investment where appropriate, and avoid procyclical spending patterns. *Italic source attribution: The Commodities Roller Coaster: A Fiscal Framework for Uncertain Times — October 2015 (Fiscal Monitor, IMF).* --- ## Content in this bundle - 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**Fmdata** - [Fmdata (XLSX)](/en/publications/fm/issues/2016/12/31/data/fmdata.xlsx){rel="external" type="text/html; charset=utf-8"} --- ## References - [Sign up to receive free e-mail notices when new series and/or country items are posted on the IMF website.](https://www.imf.org/en/email-subscription/index) - [Modify your profile](https://www.imf.org/en/email-subscription/login) - [https://www.imf.org/en/home](https://www.imf.org/en/home) _Source: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/fm/issues/2016/12/31/the-commodities-roller-coaster_