{ "title": "Fiscal Monitor: Fiscal Policy under Uncertainty", "publication": "Fiscal Monitor, April 2025", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/en/publications/fm/issues/2025/04/23/fiscal-monitor-april-2025", "canonical": "https://www.imf.org/en/publications/fm/issues/2025/04/23/fiscal-monitor-april-2025", "overlayPath": "/en/publications/fm/issues/2025/04/23/fiscal-monitor-april-2025/index.md", "summary": "Escalating uncertainty and policy shifts are reshaping the fiscal outlook. Global public debt projections have been revised upwards, while tariffs, market volatility, increased defense spending, and challenging foreign aid are intensifying risks.", "publishDate": "2025-04-23", "sections": [ { "heading": "Overview", "content": "- Publication title: Fiscal Monitor: Fiscal Policy under Uncertainty\n- Publication date: April 2025\n- Central message: Escalating uncertainty and policy shifts are reshaping the fiscal outlook; global public debt projections have been revised upwards and multiple risks are intensifying fiscal pressures." }, { "heading": "Fiscal projections and risks", "content": "- Global public debt projections: revised upwards (no numerical value provided on the page).\n- Intensifying risks listed:\n - tariffs\n - uncertainty and market volatility\n - increased defense spending\n - challenging foreign aid\n- Policy implication: Countries must implement gradual fiscal adjustments within credible medium-term frameworks to reduce debt and build buffers against heightened uncertainty." }, { "heading": "Policy recommendations and fiscal priorities", "content": "- Implement gradual fiscal adjustments within credible medium-term frameworks.\n- Reduce public debt and build fiscal buffers to withstand heightened uncertainty.\n- Reform major expenditure programs to lower fiscal vulnerabilities and support growth, specifically:\n - energy subsidies\n - pensions\n- Advance reforms with attention to stakeholder acceptance through:\n - strategic design\n - effective communication\n - robust safety nets\n - trust in governance" }, { "heading": "Chapter 2 — Public sentiment and reform acceptability", "content": "- Focus: Building public support for reforms to energy subsidies and public pensions, which are crucial for reducing fiscal vulnerabilities and fostering inclusive growth.\n- Key insights:\n - Energy subsidy reforms enhance efficiency and reduce inequality.\n - Pension reforms ensure sustainability and alleviate old-age poverty.\n - Resistance to reforms arises because costs are tangible while benefits are diffuse.\n - A real-time measure of reform acceptability is introduced using large language models to quantify stakeholder sentiment.\n - Findings indicate that careful design, timing, accompanying measures, and governance improve stakeholder sentiment and help advance ambitious and durable reforms.\n - Redistribution policies and strategic communications can mitigate resistance." }, { "heading": "Data and methodological note", "content": "- The estimates and projections are based on statistical information available through April 14, 2025, but may not reflect the latest published data in all cases.\n- For the date of the last data update for each economy, refer to the notes provided in the online WEO database.\n\nSource: Fiscal Monitor: Fiscal Policy under Uncertainty (April 2025), International Monetary Fund.\n\n---\n\n Content in this bundle\n\n- Dataset overview\n - Dataset overview (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - Dataset overview (XLSX){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/vnd.openxmlformats-officedocument.spreadsheetml.sheet\"}\n- CHAPTER 1 FISCAL POLICy UNDER UNCERTAINTy\n - CHAPTER 1 FISCAL POLICy UNDER UNCERTAINTy (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - CHAPTER 1 FISCAL POLICy UNDER UNCERTAINTy (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Chapter 1 Online Annex\n - Chapter 1 Online Annex (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - Chapter 1 Online Annex (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- ch2\n - ch2 (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - ch2 (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Chapter 2 Online Annex\n - Chapter 2 Online Annex (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - Chapter 2 Online Annex (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Executive Summary\n - Executive Summary (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - Executive Summary (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Foreword\n - Foreword (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - Foreword (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Methodological and Statistical Appendix. Fiscal Monitor, April 2025. Fiscal Policy under Uncertainty\n - Methodological and Statistical Appendix. Fiscal Monitor, April 2025. Fiscal Policy under Uncertainty (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - Methodological and Statistical Appendix. Fiscal Monitor, April 2025. Fiscal Policy under Uncertainty (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Preface\n - Preface (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - Preface (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Full Report\n - Full Report (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - Full Report (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n\n---\n\n References\n\n- Previous Fiscal Monitor Reports\n- Read the Blog\n- Read the Blog\n- https://www.imf.org/en/home\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/fm/issues/2025/04/23/fiscal-monitor-april-2025" } ], "bullets": [ "[Markdown version](/en/publications/fm/issues/2025/04/23/fiscal-monitor-april-2025/index.md)", "[Structured JSON version](/en/publications/fm/issues/2025/04/23/fiscal-monitor-april-2025/index.json)", "[Bundle manifest](/en/publications/fm/issues/2025/04/23/fiscal-monitor-april-2025/bundle-manifest.json)", "Published: April 23, 2025", "Publication title: Fiscal Monitor: Fiscal Policy under Uncertainty", "Publication date: April 2025", "Central message: Escalating uncertainty and policy shifts are reshaping the fiscal outlook; global public debt projections have been revised upwards and multiple risks are intensifying fiscal pressures.", "Global public debt projections: revised upwards (no numerical value provided on the page).", "Intensifying risks listed:", "Policy implication: Countries must implement gradual fiscal adjustments within credible medium-term frameworks to reduce debt and build buffers against heightened uncertainty.", "Implement gradual fiscal adjustments within credible medium-term frameworks.", "Reduce public debt and build fiscal buffers to withstand heightened uncertainty.", "Reform major expenditure programs to lower fiscal vulnerabilities and support growth, specifically:", "Advance reforms with attention to stakeholder acceptance through:", "Focus: Building public support for reforms to energy subsidies and public pensions, which are crucial for reducing fiscal vulnerabilities and fostering inclusive growth.", "Key insights:", "The estimates and projections are based on statistical information available through April 14, 2025, but may not reflect the latest published data in all cases.", "For the date of the last data update for each economy, refer to the notes provided in the online WEO database.", "**Dataset overview**", "**CHAPTER 1 FISCAL POLICy UNDER UNCERTAINTy**", "**Chapter 1 Online Annex**", "**ch2**", "**Chapter 2 Online Annex**", "**Executive Summary**", "**Foreword**", "**Methodological and Statistical Appendix. Fiscal Monitor, April 2025. Fiscal Policy under Uncertainty**", "**Preface**", "**Full Report**", "[Previous Fiscal Monitor Reports](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/fm)", "[Read the Blog](https://origin-blogs.imf.org/en/blogs/articles/2025/04/23/rising-global-debt-requires-countries-to-put-their-fiscal-house-in-order)", "[Read the Blog](https://origin-blogs.imf.org/en/blogs/articles/2025/04/16/how-to-build-public-support-for-energy-subsidy-and-pension-reforms)", "[https://www.imf.org/en/home](https://www.imf.org/en/home)" ], "related": [ { "title": "Dataset overview", "role": "dataset", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/fiscal-monitor/2025/data/2025aprfiscalmonitordatabase.xlsx", "summary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/fiscal-monitor/2025/data/2025aprfiscalmonitordatabase.xlsx.md", "mime": "text/markdown" }, "binary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/fiscal-monitor/2025/data/2025aprfiscalmonitordatabase.xlsx", "mime": "application/vnd.openxmlformats-officedocument.spreadsheetml.sheet" } }, { "title": "CHAPTER 1 FISCAL POLICy UNDER UNCERTAINTy", "role": "chapter", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/fiscal-monitor/2025/english/ch1.pdf", "summary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/fiscal-monitor/2025/english/ch1.pdf.md", "mime": "text/markdown" }, "binary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/fiscal-monitor/2025/english/ch1.pdf", "mime": "application/pdf" } }, { "title": "Chapter 1 Online Annex", "role": "online-annex", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/fiscal-monitor/2025/english/ch1onlineannex.pdf", "summary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/fiscal-monitor/2025/english/ch1onlineannex.pdf.md", "mime": "text/markdown" }, "binary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/fiscal-monitor/2025/english/ch1onlineannex.pdf", "mime": "application/pdf" } }, { "title": "ch2", "role": "chapter", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/fiscal-monitor/2025/english/ch2.pdf", "summary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/fiscal-monitor/2025/english/ch2.pdf.md", "mime": "text/markdown" }, "binary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/fiscal-monitor/2025/english/ch2.pdf", "mime": "application/pdf" } }, { "title": "Chapter 2 Online Annex", "role": "online-annex", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/fiscal-monitor/2025/english/ch2onlineannex.pdf", "summary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/fiscal-monitor/2025/english/ch2onlineannex.pdf.md", "mime": "text/markdown" }, "binary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/fiscal-monitor/2025/english/ch2onlineannex.pdf", "mime": "application/pdf" } }, { "title": "Executive Summary", "role": "executive-summary", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/fiscal-monitor/2025/english/execsum.pdf", "summary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/fiscal-monitor/2025/english/execsum.pdf.md", "mime": "text/markdown" }, "binary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/fiscal-monitor/2025/english/execsum.pdf", "mime": "application/pdf" } }, { "title": "Foreword", "role": "foreword", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/fiscal-monitor/2025/english/foreword.pdf", "summary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/fiscal-monitor/2025/english/foreword.pdf.md", "mime": "text/markdown" }, "binary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/fiscal-monitor/2025/english/foreword.pdf", "mime": "application/pdf" } }, { "title": "Methodological and Statistical Appendix. Fiscal Monitor, April 2025. Fiscal Policy under Uncertainty", "role": "document", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/fiscal-monitor/2025/english/msa.pdf", "summary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/fiscal-monitor/2025/english/msa.pdf.md", "mime": "text/markdown" }, "binary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/fiscal-monitor/2025/english/msa.pdf", "mime": "application/pdf" } }, { "title": "Preface", "role": "preface", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/fiscal-monitor/2025/english/preface.pdf", "summary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/fiscal-monitor/2025/english/preface.pdf.md", "mime": "text/markdown" }, "binary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/fiscal-monitor/2025/english/preface.pdf", "mime": "application/pdf" } }, { "title": "Full Report", "role": "full-report", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/fiscal-monitor/2025/english/text.pdf", "summary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/fiscal-monitor/2025/english/text.pdf.md", "mime": "text/markdown" }, "binary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/fiscal-monitor/2025/english/text.pdf", "mime": "application/pdf" } } ], "alternates": { "markdown": "/en/publications/fm/issues/2025/04/23/fiscal-monitor-april-2025/index.md", "json": "/en/publications/fm/issues/2025/04/23/fiscal-monitor-april-2025/index.json", "bundleManifest": "/en/publications/fm/issues/2025/04/23/fiscal-monitor-april-2025/bundle-manifest.json" }, "generatedAtUtc": "2026-09-23T17:04:01.126Z" }