## Fiscal Monitor: Fiscal Policy under Uncertainty _Fiscal Monitor, April 2025_ ## Source details **Canonical URL:** [Fiscal Monitor: Fiscal Policy under Uncertainty](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/fm/issues/2025/04/23/fiscal-monitor-april-2025) ## Other formats - [Markdown version](/en/publications/fm/issues/2025/04/23/fiscal-monitor-april-2025/index.md) - [Structured JSON version](/en/publications/fm/issues/2025/04/23/fiscal-monitor-april-2025/index.json) - [Bundle manifest](/en/publications/fm/issues/2025/04/23/fiscal-monitor-april-2025/bundle-manifest.json) ## Bibliographic details - Published: April 23, 2025 --- ### Overview - Publication title: Fiscal Monitor: Fiscal Policy under Uncertainty - Publication date: April 2025 - Central message: Escalating uncertainty and policy shifts are reshaping the fiscal outlook; global public debt projections have been revised upwards and multiple risks are intensifying fiscal pressures. ### Fiscal projections and risks - Global public debt projections: revised upwards (no numerical value provided on the page). - Intensifying risks listed: - tariffs - uncertainty and market volatility - increased defense spending - challenging foreign aid - Policy implication: Countries must implement gradual fiscal adjustments within credible medium-term frameworks to reduce debt and build buffers against heightened uncertainty. ### Policy recommendations and fiscal priorities - Implement gradual fiscal adjustments within credible medium-term frameworks. - Reduce public debt and build fiscal buffers to withstand heightened uncertainty. - Reform major expenditure programs to lower fiscal vulnerabilities and support growth, specifically: - energy subsidies - pensions - Advance reforms with attention to stakeholder acceptance through: - strategic design - effective communication - robust safety nets - trust in governance ### Chapter 2 — Public sentiment and reform acceptability - Focus: Building public support for reforms to energy subsidies and public pensions, which are crucial for reducing fiscal vulnerabilities and fostering inclusive growth. - Key insights: - Energy subsidy reforms enhance efficiency and reduce inequality. - Pension reforms ensure sustainability and alleviate old-age poverty. - Resistance to reforms arises because costs are tangible while benefits are diffuse. - A real-time measure of reform acceptability is introduced using large language models to quantify stakeholder sentiment. - Findings indicate that careful design, timing, accompanying measures, and governance improve stakeholder sentiment and help advance ambitious and durable reforms. - Redistribution policies and strategic communications can mitigate resistance. ### Data and methodological note - The estimates and projections are based on statistical information available through April 14, 2025, but may not reflect the latest published data in all cases. - For the date of the last data update for each economy, refer to the notes provided in the online WEO database. *Source: Fiscal Monitor: Fiscal Policy under Uncertainty (April 2025), International Monetary Fund.* --- ## Content in this bundle - **Dataset overview** - [Dataset overview (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/fiscal-monitor/2025/data/2025aprfiscalmonitordatabase.xlsx.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"} - [Dataset overview (XLSX)](/-/media/files/publications/fiscal-monitor/2025/data/2025aprfiscalmonitordatabase.xlsx){rel="external" type="application/vnd.openxmlformats-officedocument.spreadsheetml.sheet"} - **CHAPTER 1 FISCAL POLICy UNDER UNCERTAINTy** - [CHAPTER 1 FISCAL POLICy UNDER UNCERTAINTy (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/fiscal-monitor/2025/english/ch1.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"} - [CHAPTER 1 FISCAL POLICy UNDER UNCERTAINTy (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/fiscal-monitor/2025/english/ch1.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"} - **Chapter 1 Online Annex** - [Chapter 1 Online Annex (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/fiscal-monitor/2025/english/ch1onlineannex.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"} - [Chapter 1 Online Annex (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/fiscal-monitor/2025/english/ch1onlineannex.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"} - **ch2** - [ch2 (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/fiscal-monitor/2025/english/ch2.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"} - [ch2 (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/fiscal-monitor/2025/english/ch2.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"} - **Chapter 2 Online Annex** - [Chapter 2 Online Annex (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/fiscal-monitor/2025/english/ch2onlineannex.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"} - [Chapter 2 Online Annex (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/fiscal-monitor/2025/english/ch2onlineannex.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"} - **Executive Summary** - [Executive Summary (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/fiscal-monitor/2025/english/execsum.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"} - [Executive Summary (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/fiscal-monitor/2025/english/execsum.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"} - **Foreword** - [Foreword (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/fiscal-monitor/2025/english/foreword.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"} - [Foreword (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/fiscal-monitor/2025/english/foreword.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"} - **Methodological and Statistical Appendix. Fiscal Monitor, April 2025. Fiscal Policy under Uncertainty** - [Methodological and Statistical Appendix. Fiscal Monitor, April 2025. Fiscal Policy under Uncertainty (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/fiscal-monitor/2025/english/msa.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"} - [Methodological and Statistical Appendix. Fiscal Monitor, April 2025. Fiscal Policy under Uncertainty (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/fiscal-monitor/2025/english/msa.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"} - **Preface** - [Preface (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/fiscal-monitor/2025/english/preface.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"} - [Preface (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/fiscal-monitor/2025/english/preface.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"} - **Full Report** - [Full Report (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/fiscal-monitor/2025/english/text.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"} - [Full Report (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/fiscal-monitor/2025/english/text.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"} --- ## References - [Previous Fiscal Monitor Reports](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/fm) - [Read the Blog](https://origin-blogs.imf.org/en/blogs/articles/2025/04/23/rising-global-debt-requires-countries-to-put-their-fiscal-house-in-order) - [Read the Blog](https://origin-blogs.imf.org/en/blogs/articles/2025/04/16/how-to-build-public-support-for-energy-subsidy-and-pension-reforms) - [https://www.imf.org/en/home](https://www.imf.org/en/home) _Source: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/fm/issues/2025/04/23/fiscal-monitor-april-2025_