## Global Financial Stability Report October 2017: Is Growth at Risk?

_Global Financial Stability Report, October 2017_

## Source details

**Canonical URL:** [Global Financial Stability Report October 2017: Is Growth at Risk?](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/gfsr/issues/2017/09/27/global-financial-stability-report-october-2017)

## Other formats

- [Markdown version](/en/publications/gfsr/issues/2017/09/27/global-financial-stability-report-october-2017/index.md)
- [Structured JSON version](/en/publications/gfsr/issues/2017/09/27/global-financial-stability-report-october-2017/index.json)
- [Bundle manifest](/en/publications/gfsr/issues/2017/09/27/global-financial-stability-report-october-2017/bundle-manifest.json)

## Bibliographic details
- Published: October 3, 2017

---

### Executive summary and systemic assessment
- The global financial system "continues to strengthen in response to extraordinary policy support, regulatory enhancements, and the cyclical upturn in growth."
- Global bank balance sheets are stronger because of "improved capital and liquidity buffers, amid tighter regulation and heightened market scrutiny."
- Some banks remain challenged by "legacy issues and business model challenges, where progress has been uneven."
- Continuing monetary accommodation "may lead to a continued search for yield where there is too much money chasing too few yielding assets, pushing investors beyond their traditional habitats."
- As the search for yield intensifies:
  - Vulnerabilities are shifting to the nonbank sector.
  - Market risks are rising.
  - There may be "a further compression of risk compensation in markets and higher leverage in the nonfinancial sector."
- Policymakers at both the national and global level "will have to strengthen the financial and macroeconomic policy mix."

### Chapter 1 — Financial stability drivers and near-term risks
- Key dynamics:
  - Improved bank capital and liquidity buffers.
  - Tighter regulation and heightened market scrutiny.
  - Legacy bank problems and uneven progress on business-model adjustments.
  - Search-for-yield behavior incentivized by prolonged monetary accommodation.
- Risks highlighted:
  - Nonbank sector vulnerability buildup.
  - Rising market risk and compressed risk premia.
  - Potential for higher leverage in the nonfinancial sector.
- Policymaker implication:
  - Manage these challenges "carefully to avoid putting growth at risk."

### Chapter 2 — Household debt and financial stability
- Cross-country patterns:
  - "Large differences in household debt-to-GDP ratios across countries but a common increasing trajectory that was moderated but not reversed by the global financial crisis."
- Median household debt-to-GDP ratios:
  - Among advanced economies, the median household debt-to-GDP ratio rose to 63 percent in 2016 from 52 percent in 2008.
  - Among emerging economies, it increased to 21 percent from 15 percent over the same period.
- Empirical findings:
  - There is a trade-off between a short-term boost to growth from higher household debt and a medium-term risk to macroeconomic and financial stability.
  - Higher household debt may result in lower growth, consumption, and employment and a greater risk of banking crises.
  - The trade-off is stronger when household debt is higher.
  - The adverse effects "can be significantly attenuated by a combination of good policies, institutions, and regulations."
- Policy recommendations and attenuating factors:
  - Appropriate macroprudential and financial sector policies.
  - Better financial supervision.
  - Less dependence on external financing.
  - Flexible exchange rates.
  - Lower income inequality.

### Chapter 3 — Financial conditions and "growth at risk" measure
- Methodology and finding:
  - Develops "a new macroeconomic measure of financial stability by linking financial conditions to the probability distribution of future GDP growth."
  - Applies the measure to a set of 21 major advanced and emerging market economies.
  - Shows that changes in financial conditions "shift the whole distribution of future GDP growth."
- Policy relevance:
  - The new measure provides a tool to assess how financial conditions affect downside risks to GDP growth across the distribution.

### Notable thematic findings and scenarios
- Search-for-yield and market functioning:
  - "Search for yield, asset valuations, and volatility" are central concerns as monetary accommodation persists.
- Structural and regional points:
  - Chapters and figures address bank profitability, insurer business models, central bank balance sheets, emerging market capital flows, corporate leverage, and Chinese banking system developments.
- Scenario analysis:
  - The report contains a "Global Financial Dislocation Scenario" and analysis of "Emerging Market Economy External Vulnerabilities and Corporate Leverage."

*Source: Global Financial Stability Report October 2017: Is Growth at Risk? (October 2017)*

---

## Content in this bundle

- **Figure 1.1.1.  Financial Cycles and Output Gaps**
  - [Figure 1.1.1.  Financial Cycles and Output Gaps (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-1/csv-data/box-figure1-1-1.csv.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"}
  - [Figure 1.1.1.  Financial Cycles and Output Gaps (CSV)](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-1/csv-data/box-figure1-1-1.csv){rel="external" type="application/octet-stream"}
- **Figure 1.1. Global Financial Stability Map: Risks and Conditions**
  - [Figure 1.1. Global Financial Stability Map: Risks and Conditions (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-1/csv-data/figure1-1.csv.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"}
  - [Figure 1.1. Global Financial Stability Map: Risks and Conditions (CSV)](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-1/csv-data/figure1-1.csv){rel="external" type="application/octet-stream"}
- **Figure 1.10.  Changes in Life Insurance Companies� Business Models**
  - [Figure 1.10.  Changes in Life Insurance Companies� Business Models (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-1/csv-data/figure1-10.csv.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"}
  - [Figure 1.10.  Changes in Life Insurance Companies� Business Models (CSV)](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-1/csv-data/figure1-10.csv){rel="external" type="application/octet-stream"}
- **Fgiure 1.11. Life Insurers' Market Valuations and Risk Outlook**
  - [Fgiure 1.11. Life Insurers' Market Valuations and Risk Outlook (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-1/csv-data/figure1-11.csv.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"}
  - [Fgiure 1.11. Life Insurers' Market Valuations and Risk Outlook (CSV)](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-1/csv-data/figure1-11.csv){rel="external" type="application/octet-stream"}
- **Figure 1.12. Simulated Mark-to-Market Shocks to Assets and Liabilities**
  - [Figure 1.12. Simulated Mark-to-Market Shocks to Assets and Liabilities (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-1/csv-data/figure1-12.csv.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"}
  - [Figure 1.12. Simulated Mark-to-Market Shocks to Assets and Liabilities (CSV)](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-1/csv-data/figure1-12.csv){rel="external" type="application/octet-stream"}
- **Figure 1-13. Central Bank Balance Sheets and the Sovereign Sector**
  - [Figure 1-13. Central Bank Balance Sheets and the Sovereign Sector (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-1/csv-data/figure1-13.csv.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"}
  - [Figure 1-13. Central Bank Balance Sheets and the Sovereign Sector (CSV)](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-1/csv-data/figure1-13.csv){rel="external" type="application/octet-stream"}
- **Figure 1.14. Policy Rates, 10-Year Government Bond Yields, and Term Premiums**
  - [Figure 1.14. Policy Rates, 10-Year Government Bond Yields, and Term Premiums (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-1/csv-data/figure1-14.csv.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"}
  - [Figure 1.14. Policy Rates, 10-Year Government Bond Yields, and Term Premiums (CSV)](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-1/csv-data/figure1-14.csv){rel="external" type="application/octet-stream"}
- **dataset overview**
  - [dataset overview (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-1/csv-data/figure1-15.csv.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"}
  - [dataset overview (CSV)](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-1/csv-data/figure1-15.csv){rel="external" type="application/octet-stream"}
- **figure1-16**
  - [figure1-16 (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-1/csv-data/figure1-16.csv.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"}
  - [figure1-16 (CSV)](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-1/csv-data/figure1-16.csv){rel="external" type="application/octet-stream"}
- **Figure1 17**
  - [Figure1 17 (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-1/csv-data/figure1-17.csv.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"}
  - [Figure1 17 (CSV)](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-1/csv-data/figure1-17.csv){rel="external" type="application/octet-stream"}
- **Figure 1-18. Low-Income Country External Borrowing and Vulnerabilities**
  - [Figure 1-18. Low-Income Country External Borrowing and Vulnerabilities (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-1/csv-data/figure1-18.csv.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"}
  - [Figure 1-18. Low-Income Country External Borrowing and Vulnerabilities (CSV)](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-1/csv-data/figure1-18.csv){rel="external" type="application/octet-stream"}
- **figure1-19**
  - [figure1-19 (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-1/csv-data/figure1-19.csv.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"}
  - [figure1-19 (CSV)](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-1/csv-data/figure1-19.csv){rel="external" type="application/octet-stream"}
- **Figure 1.2. Global Financial Stability Map Components**
  - [Figure 1.2. Global Financial Stability Map Components (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-1/csv-data/figure1-2.csv.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"}
  - [Figure 1.2. Global Financial Stability Map Components (CSV)](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-1/csv-data/figure1-2.csv){rel="external" type="application/octet-stream"}
- **Figure 1.20. Long-Term Drivers of the Low-Volatility Regime**
  - [Figure 1.20. Long-Term Drivers of the Low-Volatility Regime (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-1/csv-data/figure1-20.csv.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"}
  - [Figure 1.20. Long-Term Drivers of the Low-Volatility Regime (CSV)](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-1/csv-data/figure1-20.csv){rel="external" type="application/octet-stream"}
- **Figure 1.21. Leveraged and Volatility-Targeting Strategies**
  - [Figure 1.21. Leveraged and Volatility-Targeting Strategies (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-1/csv-data/figure1-21.csv.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"}
  - [Figure 1.21. Leveraged and Volatility-Targeting Strategies (CSV)](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-1/csv-data/figure1-21.csv){rel="external" type="application/octet-stream"}
- **Figure 1.22. Vulnerability of the US Corporate Credit Investor Base to Shocks**
  - [Figure 1.22. Vulnerability of the US Corporate Credit Investor Base to Shocks (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-1/csv-data/figure1-22.csv.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"}
  - [Figure 1.22. Vulnerability of the US Corporate Credit Investor Base to Shocks (CSV)](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-1/csv-data/figure1-22.csv){rel="external" type="application/octet-stream"}
- **Figure 1.23. Group of Twenty Nonfinancial Sector Credit Trends**
  - [Figure 1.23. Group of Twenty Nonfinancial Sector Credit Trends (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-1/csv-data/figure1-23.csv.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"}
  - [Figure 1.23. Group of Twenty Nonfinancial Sector Credit Trends (CSV)](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-1/csv-data/figure1-23.csv){rel="external" type="application/octet-stream"}
- **Figure 1.24. Group of Twenty Nonfinancial Private Sector Borrowing**
  - [Figure 1.24. Group of Twenty Nonfinancial Private Sector Borrowing (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-1/csv-data/figure1-24.csv.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"}
  - [Figure 1.24. Group of Twenty Nonfinancial Private Sector Borrowing (CSV)](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-1/csv-data/figure1-24.csv){rel="external" type="application/octet-stream"}
- **Figure 1.25. G20 Nonfinancial Private Sector Credit and Debt Service Ratios**
  - [Figure 1.25. G20 Nonfinancial Private Sector Credit and Debt Service Ratios (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-1/csv-data/figure1-25.csv.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"}
  - [Figure 1.25. G20 Nonfinancial Private Sector Credit and Debt Service Ratios (CSV)](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-1/csv-data/figure1-25.csv){rel="external" type="application/octet-stream"}
- **Figure 1.26. Chinese Banking System Developments**
  - [Figure 1.26. Chinese Banking System Developments (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-1/csv-data/figure1-26.csv.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"}
  - [Figure 1.26. Chinese Banking System Developments (CSV)](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-1/csv-data/figure1-26.csv){rel="external" type="application/octet-stream"}
- **Figure 1.27.  China: Regulatory Tightening Has Helped Contain Financial Sector Risks**
  - [Figure 1.27.  China: Regulatory Tightening Has Helped Contain Financial Sector Risks (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-1/csv-data/figure1-27.csv.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"}
  - [Figure 1.27.  China: Regulatory Tightening Has Helped Contain Financial Sector Risks (CSV)](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-1/csv-data/figure1-27.csv){rel="external" type="application/octet-stream"}
- **Figure 1.28. Chinese Banks: Financial Policy Tightening and Credit Growth Capacity**
  - [Figure 1.28. Chinese Banks: Financial Policy Tightening and Credit Growth Capacity (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-1/csv-data/figure1-28.csv.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"}
  - [Figure 1.28. Chinese Banks: Financial Policy Tightening and Credit Growth Capacity (CSV)](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-1/csv-data/figure1-28.csv){rel="external" type="application/octet-stream"}
- **figure1-29 — Bank Profitability and Liquidity Indicators**
  - [figure1-29 — Bank Profitability and Liquidity Indicators (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-1/csv-data/figure1-29.csv.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"}
  - [figure1-29 — Bank Profitability and Liquidity Indicators (CSV)](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-1/csv-data/figure1-29.csv){rel="external" type="application/octet-stream"}
- **Figure 1.30. Global Financial Dislocation Scenario**
  - [Figure 1.30. Global Financial Dislocation Scenario (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-1/csv-data/figure1-30.csv.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"}
  - [Figure 1.30. Global Financial Dislocation Scenario (CSV)](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-1/csv-data/figure1-30.csv){rel="external" type="application/octet-stream"}
- **Figure 1.31. Emerging Market Economy External Vulnerabilities and Corporate Leverage**
  - [Figure 1.31. Emerging Market Economy External Vulnerabilities and Corporate Leverage (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-1/csv-data/figure1-31.csv.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"}
  - [Figure 1.31. Emerging Market Economy External Vulnerabilities and Corporate Leverage (CSV)](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-1/csv-data/figure1-31.csv){rel="external" type="application/octet-stream"}
- **Figure 1.4. Global Systemically Important Banks: Signficance and Business Model Snapshot**
  - [Figure 1.4. Global Systemically Important Banks: Signficance and Business Model Snapshot (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-1/csv-data/figure1-4.csv.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"}
  - [Figure 1.4. Global Systemically Important Banks: Signficance and Business Model Snapshot (CSV)](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-1/csv-data/figure1-4.csv){rel="external" type="application/octet-stream"}
- **Figure 1.5. Global Systemically Important Banks: Capital, Liquidity, and Legacy Challenges**
  - [Figure 1.5. Global Systemically Important Banks: Capital, Liquidity, and Legacy Challenges (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-1/csv-data/figure1-5.csv.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"}
  - [Figure 1.5. Global Systemically Important Banks: Capital, Liquidity, and Legacy Challenges (CSV)](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-1/csv-data/figure1-5.csv){rel="external" type="application/octet-stream"}
- **Figure 1.6. Global Systemically Important Banks: Market Activity**
  - [Figure 1.6. Global Systemically Important Banks: Market Activity (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-1/csv-data/figure1-6.csv.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"}
  - [Figure 1.6. Global Systemically Important Banks: Market Activity (CSV)](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-1/csv-data/figure1-6.csv){rel="external" type="application/octet-stream"}
- **Figure 1.7. Global Systemically Important Banks' International Activity**
  - [Figure 1.7. Global Systemically Important Banks' International Activity (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-1/csv-data/figure1-7.csv.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"}
  - [Figure 1.7. Global Systemically Important Banks' International Activity (CSV)](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-1/csv-data/figure1-7.csv){rel="external" type="application/octet-stream"}
- **Figure 1.8. Global Systemically Important Banks: Financial Performance Gaps**
  - [Figure 1.8. Global Systemically Important Banks: Financial Performance Gaps (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-1/csv-data/figure1-8.csv.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"}
  - [Figure 1.8. Global Systemically Important Banks: Financial Performance Gaps (CSV)](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-1/csv-data/figure1-8.csv){rel="external" type="application/octet-stream"}
- **Figure 1.9.  Life Insurance Companies’ Profitability and Capital**
  - [Figure 1.9.  Life Insurance Companies’ Profitability and Capital (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-1/csv-data/figure1-9.csv.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"}
  - [Figure 1.9.  Life Insurance Companies’ Profitability and Capital (CSV)](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-1/csv-data/figure1-9.csv){rel="external" type="application/octet-stream"}
- **IMF Golbal Financial Stability Report October 2017: Assumptions and Conventions**
  - [IMF Golbal Financial Stability Report October 2017: Assumptions and Conventions (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-1/documents/assumptions.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"}
  - [IMF Golbal Financial Stability Report October 2017: Assumptions and Conventions (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-1/documents/assumptions.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"}
- **Chapter 1: Is Growth At Risk?**
  - [Chapter 1: Is Growth At Risk? (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-1/documents/c1.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"}
  - [Chapter 1: Is Growth At Risk? (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-1/documents/c1.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"}
- **IMF Global financial Stability Report October 2017: Executive Summary**
  - [IMF Global financial Stability Report October 2017: Executive Summary (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-1/documents/exec-summary.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"}
  - [IMF Global financial Stability Report October 2017: Executive Summary (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-1/documents/exec-summary.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"}
- **Foreword**
  - [Foreword (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-1/documents/foreword.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"}
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- **106735_Figure 1.1.1**
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- **106735_Figure 1.19**
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  - [106735_Figure 1.19 (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-1/pdf-data/figure1-19.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"}
- **106735_Figure 1.02**
  - [106735_Figure 1.02 (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-1/pdf-data/figure1-2.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"}
  - [106735_Figure 1.02 (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-1/pdf-data/figure1-2.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"}
- **Figure 1.20. Long-Term Drivers of the Low-Volatility Regime**
  - [Figure 1.20. Long-Term Drivers of the Low-Volatility Regime (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-1/pdf-data/figure1-20.csv.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"}
  - [Figure 1.20. Long-Term Drivers of the Low-Volatility Regime (CSV)](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-1/pdf-data/figure1-20.csv){rel="external" type="application/octet-stream"}
- **106735_Figure 1.21**
  - [106735_Figure 1.21 (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-1/pdf-data/figure1-21.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"}
  - [106735_Figure 1.21 (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-1/pdf-data/figure1-21.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"}
- **Figure 1.22. Vulnerability of the US Corporate Credit Investor Base to Shocks**
  - [Figure 1.22. Vulnerability of the US Corporate Credit Investor Base to Shocks (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-1/pdf-data/figure1-22.csv.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"}
  - [Figure 1.22. Vulnerability of the US Corporate Credit Investor Base to Shocks (CSV)](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-1/pdf-data/figure1-22.csv){rel="external" type="application/octet-stream"}
- **106735_Figure 1.23**
  - [106735_Figure 1.23 (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-1/pdf-data/figure1-23.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"}
  - [106735_Figure 1.23 (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-1/pdf-data/figure1-23.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"}
- **106735_Figure 1.24**
  - [106735_Figure 1.24 (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-1/pdf-data/figure1-24.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"}
  - [106735_Figure 1.24 (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-1/pdf-data/figure1-24.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"}
- **106735_Figure 1.25**
  - [106735_Figure 1.25 (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-1/pdf-data/figure1-25.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"}
  - [106735_Figure 1.25 (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-1/pdf-data/figure1-25.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"}
- **106735_Figure 1.26**
  - [106735_Figure 1.26 (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-1/pdf-data/figure1-26.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"}
  - [106735_Figure 1.26 (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-1/pdf-data/figure1-26.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"}
- **106735_Figure 1.27**
  - [106735_Figure 1.27 (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-1/pdf-data/figure1-27.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"}
  - [106735_Figure 1.27 (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-1/pdf-data/figure1-27.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"}
- **106735_Figure 1.28**
  - [106735_Figure 1.28 (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-1/pdf-data/figure1-28.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"}
  - [106735_Figure 1.28 (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-1/pdf-data/figure1-28.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"}
- **106735_Figure 1.29**
  - [106735_Figure 1.29 (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-1/pdf-data/figure1-29.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"}
  - [106735_Figure 1.29 (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-1/pdf-data/figure1-29.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"}
- **106735_Figure 1.03**
  - [106735_Figure 1.03 (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-1/pdf-data/figure1-3.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"}
  - [106735_Figure 1.03 (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-1/pdf-data/figure1-3.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"}
- **106735_Figure 1.30**
  - [106735_Figure 1.30 (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-1/pdf-data/figure1-30.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"}
  - [106735_Figure 1.30 (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-1/pdf-data/figure1-30.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"}
- **106735_Figure 1.31**
  - [106735_Figure 1.31 (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-1/pdf-data/figure1-31.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"}
  - [106735_Figure 1.31 (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-1/pdf-data/figure1-31.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"}
- **106735_Figure 1.04**
  - [106735_Figure 1.04 (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-1/pdf-data/figure1-4.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"}
  - [106735_Figure 1.04 (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-1/pdf-data/figure1-4.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"}
- **106735_Figure 1.05**
  - [106735_Figure 1.05 (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-1/pdf-data/figure1-5.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"}
  - [106735_Figure 1.05 (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-1/pdf-data/figure1-5.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"}
- **106735_Figure 1.06**
  - [106735_Figure 1.06 (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-1/pdf-data/figure1-6.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"}
  - [106735_Figure 1.06 (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-1/pdf-data/figure1-6.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"}
- **106735_Figure 1.07**
  - [106735_Figure 1.07 (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-1/pdf-data/figure1-7.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"}
  - [106735_Figure 1.07 (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-1/pdf-data/figure1-7.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"}
- **106735_Figure 1.08**
  - [106735_Figure 1.08 (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-1/pdf-data/figure1-8.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"}
  - [106735_Figure 1.08 (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-1/pdf-data/figure1-8.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"}
- **106735_Figure 1.09**
  - [106735_Figure 1.09 (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-1/pdf-data/figure1-9.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"}
  - [106735_Figure 1.09 (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-1/pdf-data/figure1-9.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"}
- **Annex Figure 2.1.1. Loan Characteristics, Rules, and Regulations**
  - [Annex Figure 2.1.1. Loan Characteristics, Rules, and Regulations (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-2/csv-data/annexfigure2-1.csv.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"}
  - [Annex Figure 2.1.1. Loan Characteristics, Rules, and Regulations (CSV)](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-2/csv-data/annexfigure2-1.csv){rel="external" type="application/octet-stream"}
- **Figure 2.1.1. Long-Term per Capita GDP Growth and Household Debt**
  - [Figure 2.1.1. Long-Term per Capita GDP Growth and Household Debt (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-2/csv-data/boxfigure2-1.csv.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"}
  - [Figure 2.1.1. Long-Term per Capita GDP Growth and Household Debt (CSV)](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-2/csv-data/boxfigure2-1.csv){rel="external" type="application/octet-stream"}
- **boxfigure2-3**
  - [boxfigure2-3 (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-2/csv-data/boxfigure2-3.csv.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"}
  - [boxfigure2-3 (CSV)](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-2/csv-data/boxfigure2-3.csv){rel="external" type="application/octet-stream"}
- **Figure 2.4.2. Consumption Response to House Prices**
  - [Figure 2.4.2. Consumption Response to House Prices (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-2/csv-data/boxfigure2-4.csv.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"}
  - [Figure 2.4.2. Consumption Response to House Prices (CSV)](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-2/csv-data/boxfigure2-4.csv){rel="external" type="application/octet-stream"}
- **boxfigure2-5**
  - [boxfigure2-5 (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-2/csv-data/boxfigure2-5.csv.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"}
  - [boxfigure2-5 (CSV)](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-2/csv-data/boxfigure2-5.csv){rel="external" type="application/octet-stream"}
- **Figure 2.1. Household Debt-to-GDP Ratio in Advanced and Emerging Market Economies**
  - [Figure 2.1. Household Debt-to-GDP Ratio in Advanced and Emerging Market Economies (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-2/csv-data/figure2-1.csv.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"}
  - [Figure 2.1. Household Debt-to-GDP Ratio in Advanced and Emerging Market Economies (CSV)](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-2/csv-data/figure2-1.csv){rel="external" type="application/octet-stream"}
- **Figure 2.10. The Impact of Household Debt by Country and Institutional Factors**
  - [Figure 2.10. The Impact of Household Debt by Country and Institutional Factors (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-2/csv-data/figure2-10.csv.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"}
  - [Figure 2.10. The Impact of Household Debt by Country and Institutional Factors (CSV)](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-2/csv-data/figure2-10.csv){rel="external" type="application/octet-stream"}
- **Figure2 3**
  - [Figure2 3 (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-2/csv-data/figure2-3.csv.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"}
  - [Figure2 3 (CSV)](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-2/csv-data/figure2-3.csv){rel="external" type="application/octet-stream"}
- **Figure 2.4. Household Debt: Evidence from Cross-Country Panel Data**
  - [Figure 2.4. Household Debt: Evidence from Cross-Country Panel Data (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-2/csv-data/figure2-4.csv.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"}
  - [Figure 2.4. Household Debt: Evidence from Cross-Country Panel Data (CSV)](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-2/csv-data/figure2-4.csv){rel="external" type="application/octet-stream"}
- **Figure2 5**
  - [Figure2 5 (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-2/csv-data/figure2-5.csv.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"}
  - [Figure2 5 (CSV)](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-2/csv-data/figure2-5.csv){rel="external" type="application/octet-stream"}
- **Figure 2.6. Effects of Household Debt on GDP Growth: Robustness Tests**
  - [Figure 2.6. Effects of Household Debt on GDP Growth: Robustness Tests (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-2/csv-data/figure2-6.csv.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"}
  - [Figure 2.6. Effects of Household Debt on GDP Growth: Robustness Tests (CSV)](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-2/csv-data/figure2-6.csv){rel="external" type="application/octet-stream"}
- **Figure 2.7. Micro-Level Evidence Corroborating the Macro Impact**
  - [Figure 2.7. Micro-Level Evidence Corroborating the Macro Impact (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-2/csv-data/figure2-7.csv.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"}
  - [Figure 2.7. Micro-Level Evidence Corroborating the Macro Impact (CSV)](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-2/csv-data/figure2-7.csv){rel="external" type="application/octet-stream"}
- **Figure 2.8. Banking Crises and the Role of Household Debt**
  - [Figure 2.8. Banking Crises and the Role of Household Debt (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-2/csv-data/figure2-8.csv.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"}
  - [Figure 2.8. Banking Crises and the Role of Household Debt (CSV)](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-2/csv-data/figure2-8.csv){rel="external" type="application/octet-stream"}
- **Figure 2.9. Bank Equity Returns and Household Debt**
  - [Figure 2.9. Bank Equity Returns and Household Debt (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-2/csv-data/figure2-9.csv.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"}
  - [Figure 2.9. Bank Equity Returns and Household Debt (CSV)](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-2/csv-data/figure2-9.csv){rel="external" type="application/octet-stream"}
- **Global Financial Stability Report October 2017 Chapter Two: Household Debt And Financial Stability**
  - [Global Financial Stability Report October 2017 Chapter Two: Household Debt And Financial Stability (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-2/documents/c2.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"}
  - [Global Financial Stability Report October 2017 Chapter Two: Household Debt And Financial Stability (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-2/documents/c2.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"}
- **Summary**
  - [Summary (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-2/documents/sum2.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"}
  - [Summary (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-2/documents/sum2.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"}
- **106735_Annex Figure 2.1.1**
  - [106735_Annex Figure 2.1.1 (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-2/pdf-data/annexfigure2-1-1.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"}
  - [106735_Annex Figure 2.1.1 (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-2/pdf-data/annexfigure2-1-1.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"}
- **Figure 2.4.1 and Figure 2.4.2**
  - [Figure 2.4.1 and Figure 2.4.2 (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-2/pdf-data/boxfigure-241-and-242.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"}
  - [Figure 2.4.1 and Figure 2.4.2 (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-2/pdf-data/boxfigure-241-and-242.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"}
- **106735_Figure 2.1.1**
  - [106735_Figure 2.1.1 (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-2/pdf-data/boxfigure2-1-1.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"}
  - [106735_Figure 2.1.1 (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-2/pdf-data/boxfigure2-1-1.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"}
- **106735_Figure 2.2.1 CMYK**
  - [106735_Figure 2.2.1 CMYK (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-2/pdf-data/boxfigure2-2-1.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"}
  - [106735_Figure 2.2.1 CMYK (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-2/pdf-data/boxfigure2-2-1.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"}
- **106735_Figure 2.3.1**
  - [106735_Figure 2.3.1 (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-2/pdf-data/boxfigure2-3-1.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"}
  - [106735_Figure 2.3.1 (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-2/pdf-data/boxfigure2-3-1.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"}
- **106735_Figure 2.5.1**
  - [106735_Figure 2.5.1 (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-2/pdf-data/boxfigure2-5-1.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"}
  - [106735_Figure 2.5.1 (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-2/pdf-data/boxfigure2-5-1.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"}
- **106735_Figure 2.01**
  - [106735_Figure 2.01 (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-2/pdf-data/figure2-1.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"}
  - [106735_Figure 2.01 (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-2/pdf-data/figure2-1.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"}
- **106735_Figure 2.10**
  - [106735_Figure 2.10 (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-2/pdf-data/figure2-10.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"}
  - [106735_Figure 2.10 (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-2/pdf-data/figure2-10.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"}
- **106735_Figure 2.02**
  - [106735_Figure 2.02 (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-2/pdf-data/figure2-2.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"}
  - [106735_Figure 2.02 (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-2/pdf-data/figure2-2.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"}
- **106735_Figure 2.03**
  - [106735_Figure 2.03 (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-2/pdf-data/figure2-3.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"}
  - [106735_Figure 2.03 (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-2/pdf-data/figure2-3.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"}
- **106735_Figure 2.04**
  - [106735_Figure 2.04 (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-2/pdf-data/figure2-4.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"}
  - [106735_Figure 2.04 (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-2/pdf-data/figure2-4.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"}
- **106735_Figure 2.05**
  - [106735_Figure 2.05 (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-2/pdf-data/figure2-5.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"}
  - [106735_Figure 2.05 (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-2/pdf-data/figure2-5.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"}
- **106735_Figure 2.06**
  - [106735_Figure 2.06 (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-2/pdf-data/figure2-6.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"}
  - [106735_Figure 2.06 (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-2/pdf-data/figure2-6.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"}
- **106735_Figure 2.07**
  - [106735_Figure 2.07 (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-2/pdf-data/figure2-7.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"}
  - [106735_Figure 2.07 (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-2/pdf-data/figure2-7.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"}
- **106735_Figure 2.08**
  - [106735_Figure 2.08 (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-2/pdf-data/figure2-8.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"}
  - [106735_Figure 2.08 (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-2/pdf-data/figure2-8.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"}
- **106735_Figure 2.09**
  - [106735_Figure 2.09 (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-2/pdf-data/figure2-9.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"}
  - [106735_Figure 2.09 (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-2/pdf-data/figure2-9.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"}
- **Annex 3.1. Financial Vulnerabilities and Growth Hysteresis in Structural Models**
  - [Annex 3.1. Financial Vulnerabilities and Growth Hysteresis in Structural Models (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-3/csv-data/annexfigure3-1.csv.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"}
  - [Annex 3.1. Financial Vulnerabilities and Growth Hysteresis in Structural Models (CSV)](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-3/csv-data/annexfigure3-1.csv){rel="external" type="application/octet-stream"}
- **Dataset overview**
  - [Dataset overview (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-3/csv-data/data-appendix.xlsx.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"}
  - [Dataset overview (XLSX)](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-3/csv-data/data-appendix.xlsx){rel="external" type="application/vnd.openxmlformats-officedocument.spreadsheetml.sheet"}
- **Figure 3.1. Tighter Financial Conditions Forecast Greater Downside Tail Risk to Global Growth**
  - [Figure 3.1. Tighter Financial Conditions Forecast Greater Downside Tail Risk to Global Growth (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-3/csv-data/figure3-1.csv.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"}
  - [Figure 3.1. Tighter Financial Conditions Forecast Greater Downside Tail Risk to Global Growth (CSV)](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-3/csv-data/figure3-1.csv){rel="external" type="application/octet-stream"}
- **Figure3 2**
  - [Figure3 2 (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-3/csv-data/figure3-2.csv.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"}
  - [Figure3 2 (CSV)](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-3/csv-data/figure3-2.csv){rel="external" type="application/octet-stream"}
- **Figure 3.3. In Emerging Market Economies, Changes in Financial Conditions Also Affect Upside Risks**
  - [Figure 3.3. In Emerging Market Economies, Changes in Financial Conditions Also Affect Upside Risks (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-3/csv-data/figure3-3.csv.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"}
  - [Figure 3.3. In Emerging Market Economies, Changes in Financial Conditions Also Affect Upside Risks (CSV)](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-3/csv-data/figure3-3.csv){rel="external" type="application/octet-stream"}
- **Figure 3.4. Higher Price of Risk is a Significant Predictor of Downside Growth Risks within One Year**
  - [Figure 3.4. Higher Price of Risk is a Significant Predictor of Downside Growth Risks within One Year (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-3/csv-data/figure3-4.csv.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"}
  - [Figure 3.4. Higher Price of Risk is a Significant Predictor of Downside Growth Risks within One Year (CSV)](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-3/csv-data/figure3-4.csv){rel="external" type="application/octet-stream"}
- **Figure 3.5. Rising Leverage Signals Higher Downside Growth Risks at Longer Time Horizons**
  - [Figure 3.5. Rising Leverage Signals Higher Downside Growth Risks at Longer Time Horizons (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-3/csv-data/figure3-5.csv.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"}
  - [Figure 3.5. Rising Leverage Signals Higher Downside Growth Risks at Longer Time Horizons (CSV)](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-3/csv-data/figure3-5.csv){rel="external" type="application/octet-stream"}
- **Figure 3.6. Waning Global Risk Appetite Signals Imminent Downside Risks to Growth**
  - [Figure 3.6. Waning Global Risk Appetite Signals Imminent Downside Risks to Growth (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-3/csv-data/figure3-6.csv.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"}
  - [Figure 3.6. Waning Global Risk Appetite Signals Imminent Downside Risks to Growth (CSV)](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-3/csv-data/figure3-6.csv){rel="external" type="application/octet-stream"}
- **Figure3 7**
  - [Figure3 7 (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-3/csv-data/figure3-7.csv.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"}
  - [Figure3 7 (CSV)](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-3/csv-data/figure3-7.csv){rel="external" type="application/octet-stream"}
- **Figure 3.8. In-Sample and Recursive Out of Sample Quantile Forecasts: One-Quarter-Ahead**
  - [Figure 3.8. In-Sample and Recursive Out of Sample Quantile Forecasts: One-Quarter-Ahead (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-3/csv-data/figure3-8.csv.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"}
  - [Figure 3.8. In-Sample and Recursive Out of Sample Quantile Forecasts: One-Quarter-Ahead (CSV)](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-3/csv-data/figure3-8.csv){rel="external" type="application/octet-stream"}
- **figure3-9**
  - [figure3-9 (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-3/csv-data/figure3-9.csv.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"}
  - [figure3-9 (CSV)](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-3/csv-data/figure3-9.csv){rel="external" type="application/octet-stream"}
- **Chapter 3: Financial Conditions and Growth At Risk**
  - [Chapter 3: Financial Conditions and Growth At Risk (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-3/documents/c3.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"}
  - [Chapter 3: Financial Conditions and Growth At Risk (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-3/documents/c3.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"}
- **Global Financial Stability Report October 2017 Summary: Financial Conditions And Growth At Risk**
  - [Global Financial Stability Report October 2017 Summary: Financial Conditions And Growth At Risk (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-3/documents/sum3.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"}
  - [Global Financial Stability Report October 2017 Summary: Financial Conditions And Growth At Risk (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-3/documents/sum3.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"}
- **annexfigures1-4**
  - [annexfigures1-4 (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-3/pdf-data/annexfigures1-4.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"}
  - [annexfigures1-4 (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-3/pdf-data/annexfigures1-4.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"}
- **106735_Figure 3.1**
  - [106735_Figure 3.1 (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-3/pdf-data/figure3-1.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"}
  - [106735_Figure 3.1 (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-3/pdf-data/figure3-1.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"}
- **106735_Figure 3.2**
  - [106735_Figure 3.2 (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-3/pdf-data/figure3-2.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"}
  - [106735_Figure 3.2 (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-3/pdf-data/figure3-2.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"}
- **106735_Figure 3.3**
  - [106735_Figure 3.3 (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-3/pdf-data/figure3-3.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"}
  - [106735_Figure 3.3 (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-3/pdf-data/figure3-3.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"}
- **106735_Figure 3.4**
  - [106735_Figure 3.4 (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-3/pdf-data/figure3-4.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"}
  - [106735_Figure 3.4 (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-3/pdf-data/figure3-4.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"}
- **106735_Figure 3.5**
  - [106735_Figure 3.5 (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-3/pdf-data/figure3-5.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"}
  - [106735_Figure 3.5 (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-3/pdf-data/figure3-5.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"}
- **106735_Figure 3.6**
  - [106735_Figure 3.6 (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-3/pdf-data/figure3-6.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"}
  - [106735_Figure 3.6 (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-3/pdf-data/figure3-6.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"}
- **106735_Figure 3.7**
  - [106735_Figure 3.7 (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-3/pdf-data/figure3-7.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"}
  - [106735_Figure 3.7 (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-3/pdf-data/figure3-7.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"}
- **106735_Figure 3.8**
  - [106735_Figure 3.8 (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-3/pdf-data/figure3-8.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"}
  - [106735_Figure 3.8 (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-3/pdf-data/figure3-8.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"}
- **106735_Figure 3.9**
  - [106735_Figure 3.9 (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-3/pdf-data/figure3-9.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"}
  - [106735_Figure 3.9 (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2017/october/chapter-3/pdf-data/figure3-9.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"}

---

## References

- [Sign up to receive free e-mail notices when new series and/or country items are posted on the IMF website.](https://www.imf.org/en/email-subscription/index)
- [Modify your profile](https://www.imf.org/en/email-subscription/login)
- [Financial Stability Improves, But Rising Vulnerabilities Could Put Growth at Risk](https://blogs.imf.org/2017/10/11/financial-stability-improves-but-rising-vulnerabilities-could-put-growth-at-risk//)
- [Rising Household Debt: What It Means for Growth and Stability](https://blogs.imf.org/?p=21508&preview=true)
- [How Policy Makers Can Better Predict a Downturn – and Prepare](https://blogs.imf.org/2017/10/03/how-policy-makers-can-better-predict-a-downturn-and-prepare//)
- [https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo)
- [Global Economy in the Shadow of War](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo/issues/2026/04/14/world-economic-outlook-april-2026)
- [https://www.imf.org/en/publications/gfsr](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/gfsr)
- [Global Financial Markets Confront the War in the Middle East and Amplification Risks](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/gfsr/issues/2026/04/14/global-financial-stability-report-april-2026)
- [https://www.imf.org/en/publications/fm](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/fm)
- [Fiscal Policy under Pressure: High Debt, Rising Risks](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/fm/issues/2026/04/15/fiscal-monitor-april-2026)
- [https://www.imf.org/en/publications/reo](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/reo)
- [Asia and Pacific](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/reo/apac)
- [Europe](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/reo/eu)
- [Middle East and Central Asia](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/reo/meca)
- [Sub-Saharan Africa](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/reo/ssa)
- [Western Hemisphere](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/reo/wh)
- [https://www.imf.org/en/publications/areb](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/areb)
- [Getting to Growth in an Age of Uncertainty](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/areb/issues/2025/09/24/annual-report-2025)
- [https://www.imf.org/en/publications/finance-development](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/finance-development)
- [More Publications](https://www.imf.org/en/publications)
- [Blog](https://blogs.imf.org/2017/10/11/financial-stability-improves-but-rising-vulnerabilities-could-put-growth-at-risk)

_Source: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/gfsr/issues/2017/09/27/global-financial-stability-report-october-2017_