## Global Financial Stability Report, October 2017: Is Growth at Risk?

_Global Financial Stability Report, October 11, 2017_

## Source details

**Canonical URL:** [Global Financial Stability Report, October 2017: Is Growth at Risk?](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/gfsr/issues/2019/10/11/global-financial-stability-report-october-2017-is-growth-at-risk-45056)

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## Bibliographic details
- Published: October 11, 2017
- Series: Global Financial Stability Report
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781484308394.082

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### Executive summary and main findings
- The global financial system continues to strengthen in response to extraordinary policy support, regulatory enhancements, and the cyclical upturn in growth.
- The report contains a chapter examining the short- and medium-term implications for economic growth and financial stability of the past decades’ rise in household debt.
  - Documents large differences in household debt-to-GDP ratios across countries but a common increasing trajectory that was moderated but not reversed by the global financial crisis.
- Another chapter develops a new macroeconomic measure of financial stability by linking financial conditions to the probability distribution of future GDP growth and applies it to a set of 20 major advanced and emerging market economies.
  - The chapter shows that changes in financial conditions shift the whole distribution of future GDP growth.

### Policy-relevant analysis and implications
- Strengthening of the global financial system is attributed to:
  - extraordinary policy support;
  - regulatory enhancements;
  - the cyclical upturn in growth.
- Household debt dynamics:
  - Rising household debt over past decades has implications for short- and medium-term economic growth and financial stability.
  - The global financial crisis moderated but did not reverse the general upward trajectory in household debt-to-GDP ratios across countries.
- Financial conditions and growth risk:
  - A new macroeconomic measure links financial conditions to the probability distribution of future GDP growth.
  - Financial condition changes affect not only mean growth projections but the entire distribution of future GDP growth outcomes.

### Scope, subjects, and keywords
- Subjects: Banking; Consumption; Credit; Emerging and frontier financial markets; Financial crises; Financial institutions; Financial markets; Financial sector policy and analysis; Financial sector risk; Global financial crisis of 2008-2009; Global systemically important banks; Income; Money; National accounts
- Keywords: Africa; Consumption; Credit; credit market participation; Emerging and frontier financial markets; financial condition; financial leverage; Financial sector risk; fixed income; GDP growth; GFSR; Global; Global financial crisis of 2008-2009; global financial system; Global systemically important banks; growth risk; household debt; IMF executive board discussion summary; Income; labor market distortion; market; quarter FCI; return on assets; risk; risk appetite; risks to growth; univariate financial conditions index

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## References

- [https://www.imf.org/en/publications/gfsr](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/gfsr)
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- [Banking](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/publications-by-subject?subject=Banking)
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- [Financial sector policy and analysis](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/publications-by-subject?subject=Financial+sector+policy+and+analysis)
- [Financial sector risk](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/publications-by-subject?subject=Financial+sector+risk)
- [Global financial crisis of 2008-2009](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/publications-by-subject?subject=Global+financial+crisis+of+2008-2009)
- [Global systemically important banks](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/publications-by-subject?subject=Global+systemically+important+banks)
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- [National accounts](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/publications-by-subject?subject=National+accounts)
- [Enhancing Tax Capacity: Revenue Gains from Strengthening Tax Administration
October 24, 2025](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/wp/issues/2025/10/24/enhancing-tax-capacity-revenue-gains-from-strengthening-tax-administration-571373)
- [Development Committee: The Managing Director's Written Statement
October 20, 2025](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/policy-papers/issues/2025/10/20/development-committee-the-managing-director-s-written-statement-571316)
- [The Managing Director's Global Policy Agenda, Fall 2025: Navigating a World In Transition
October 16, 2025](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/policy-papers/issues/2025/10/14/the-managing-director-s-global-policy-agenda-fall-2025-navigating-a-world-in-transition-570971)
- [Taxes in Lithuania: Benchmarking and Policy Options
October 13, 2025](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/selected-issues-papers/issues/2025/10/10/taxes-in-lithuania-benchmarking-and-policy-options-571138)

_Source: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/gfsr/issues/2019/10/11/global-financial-stability-report-october-2017-is-growth-at-risk-45056_