## The Last Mile: Financial Vulnerabilities and Risks _Global Financial Stability Report, April 2024_ ## Source details **Canonical URL:** [The Last Mile: Financial Vulnerabilities and Risks](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/gfsr/issues/2024/04/16/global-financial-stability-report-april-2024) ## Other formats - [Markdown version](/en/publications/gfsr/issues/2024/04/16/global-financial-stability-report-april-2024/index.md) - [Structured JSON version](/en/publications/gfsr/issues/2024/04/16/global-financial-stability-report-april-2024/index.json) - [Bundle manifest](/en/publications/gfsr/issues/2024/04/16/global-financial-stability-report-april-2024/bundle-manifest.json) ## Bibliographic details - Published: April 16, 2024 --- ### Overview - Near-term risks to global financial stability have receded as disinflation is entering its last mile, but medium-term vulnerabilities are mounting. - The report contains three chapters: - Chapter 1: Financial Fragilities along the Last Mile of Disinflation - Chapter 2: The Rise and Risks of Private Credit - Chapter 3: Cyber Risk: A Growing Concern for Macrofinancial Stability ### Chapter 1 — Financial Fragilities along the Last Mile of Disinflation - Expectations that global disinflation is entering its “last mile” and monetary policy will be easing have eased financial conditions worldwide since the October 2023 Global Financial Stability Report. - Emerging markets have shown resilience, and some frontier economies have issued international debt. - The global economy appears increasingly likely to achieve a soft landing, and cracks in the financial system exposed by high interest rates have not ruptured further. - Near-term global financial stability risks have receded. - Salient risks along the last mile include: - Growing strains in the commercial real estate sector. - Signs of credit deterioration among corporates that could be exacerbated by adverse shocks. - The risk that stalling disinflation could surprise investors, leading to a repricing of assets and a resurgence of financial market volatility. - A continued accumulation of debt in both public and private sectors as a notable medium-term vulnerability. ### Chapter 2 — The Rise and Risks of Private Credit - Private credit is a rapidly growing asset class—traditionally focused on providing loans to mid-sized firms outside the realms of either commercial banks or public debt markets—that now rivals other major credit markets in size. - Important vulnerabilities identified: - Relatively fragile borrowers. - A growing share of semi-liquid investment vehicles. - Multiple layers of leverage. - Stale and potentially subjective valuations. - Unclear connections between participants. - Risk assessment: - If private credit remains opaque and continues to grow exponentially under limited prudential oversight, these vulnerabilities could become systemic. - Policy recommendations and supervisory considerations: - Authorities could consider a more proactive supervisory and regulatory approach to private credit. - Close data gaps and enhance reporting requirements to comprehensively assess risks. - Closely monitor and address liquidity and conduct risks in funds—especially retail—that may be faced with higher redemption risks. ### Chapter 3 — Cyber Risk: A Growing Concern for Macrofinancial Stability - Against a backdrop of growing digitalization, evolving technologies, and rising geopolitical tensions, cyber risks are on the rise. - While cyber incidents have thus far not been systemic, the risk of extreme losses from such incidents has increased. - The financial sector is highly exposed; a severe cyber incident could pose macro-financial stability risks through: - A loss of confidence. - Disruption of critical services. - Spillovers to other institutions through technological and financial linkages. - Current gaps and needs: - Cyber policy frameworks remain generally inadequate, especially in emerging market and developing economies. - Reporting of cyber incidents should be strengthened to allow for more effective monitoring of cyber risks. - Recommended measures to strengthen cyber resilience: - Develop adequate national cybersecurity strategies. - Establish appropriate regulatory and supervisory frameworks. - Build a capable cybersecurity workforce. - Create domestic and international information-sharing arrangements. - Supervisors should hold board members responsible for managing the cybersecurity of financial firms and promoting a conducive risk culture, cyber hygiene, and cyber training and awareness. - Financial firms should develop and test response and recovery procedures. - National authorities should develop effective response protocols and crisis management frameworks. ### Media and Outreach - IMF Financial Counsellor Tobias Adrian on the April 2024 Global Financial Stability Report — May 2, 2024 — 3:42 - Press Briefing: Global Financial Stability Report, April 2024 — April 16, 2024 — 52:17 - The Rise and Risks of Private Credit — April 10, 2024 — 50:52 - Cyber Risk: A Growing Concern for Macrofinancial Stability — April 9, 2024 — 57:53 *Source: Global Financial Stability Report — The Last Mile: Financial Vulnerabilities and Risks (April 2024).* --- ## Content in this bundle - **Chapter 1 Data** - [Chapter 1 Data (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2024/april/data/ch1data.xlsx.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"} - [Chapter 1 Data (XLSX)](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2024/april/data/ch1data.xlsx){rel="external" type="application/vnd.openxmlformats-officedocument.spreadsheetml.sheet"} - **Dataset overview** - [Dataset overview (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2024/april/data/ch2data-updated.xlsx.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"} - [Dataset overview (XLSX)](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2024/april/data/ch2data-updated.xlsx){rel="external" type="application/vnd.openxmlformats-officedocument.spreadsheetml.sheet"} - **Chapter 3 Data** - [Chapter 3 Data (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2024/april/data/ch3data.xlsx.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"} - [Chapter 3 Data (XLSX)](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2024/april/data/ch3data.xlsx){rel="external" type="application/vnd.openxmlformats-officedocument.spreadsheetml.sheet"} - **Chapter 1** - [Chapter 1 (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2024/april/english/ch1.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"} - [Chapter 1 (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2024/april/english/ch1.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"} - **Chapter 2** - [Chapter 2 (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2024/april/english/ch2.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"} - [Chapter 2 (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2024/april/english/ch2.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"} - **Global Financial Stability Report, April 2024, “The Rise and Risks of Private Credit"** - [Global Financial Stability Report, April 2024, “The Rise and Risks of Private Credit" (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2024/april/english/ch2execsum.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"} - [Global Financial Stability Report, April 2024, “The Rise and Risks of Private Credit" (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2024/april/english/ch2execsum.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"} - **ch3** - [ch3 (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2024/april/english/ch3.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"} - [ch3 (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2024/april/english/ch3.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"} - **Chapter 3 Online Annex** - [Chapter 3 Online Annex (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2024/april/english/ch3onlineannex.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"} - [Chapter 3 Online Annex (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2024/april/english/ch3onlineannex.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"} - **Cyber Risk: A Growing Concern for Macrofinancial Stability** - [Cyber Risk: A Growing Concern for Macrofinancial Stability (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2024/april/english/ch3sum.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"} - [Cyber Risk: A Growing Concern for Macrofinancial Stability (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2024/april/english/ch3sum.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"} - **Executive Summary** - [Executive Summary (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2024/april/english/execsum.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"} - [Executive Summary (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2024/april/english/execsum.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"} - **Foreword** - [Foreword (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2024/april/english/foreword.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"} - [Foreword (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2024/april/english/foreword.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"} - **Global Financial Stability Report — Key Highlights 2024 Apr** - [Global Financial Stability Report — Key Highlights 2024 Apr (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2024/april/english/infographic.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"} - [Global Financial Stability Report — Key Highlights 2024 Apr (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2024/april/english/infographic.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"} - **Full Report** - [Full Report (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2024/april/english/text.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"} - [Full Report (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/gfsr/2024/april/english/text.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"} --- ## References - [Previous Issues](https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/GFSR) - [Blog by IMF Financial Counsellor Tobias Adrian](https://origin-blogs.imf.org/en/blogs/articles/2024/04/16/central-banks-must-remain-vigilant-along-the-last-mile-of-disinflation) - [Podcast](https://www.imf.org/en/news/podcasts/all-podcasts/2024/04/15/gfsr-april-2024) - [Press Conference](https://www.imf.org/en/Videos/view?vid=6351041605112) - [https://origin-blogs.imf.org/en/blogs/articles/2024/04/08/fast-growing-usd2-trillion-private-credit-market-warrants-closer-watch](https://origin-blogs.imf.org/en/blogs/articles/2024/04/08/fast-growing-usd2-trillion-private-credit-market-warrants-closer-watch) - [Replay the Event](https://www.imf.org/en/Videos/view?vid=6350632166112) - [https://origin-blogs.imf.org/en/blogs/articles/2024/04/09/rising-cyber-threats-pose-serious-concerns-for-financial-stability](https://origin-blogs.imf.org/en/blogs/articles/2024/04/09/rising-cyber-threats-pose-serious-concerns-for-financial-stability) - [Replay the Event](https://www.imf.org/en/Videos/view?vid=6350581746112) _Source: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/gfsr/issues/2024/04/16/global-financial-stability-report-april-2024_