## What Is Driving the Rise in Advanced Economy Bond Yields?

_Global Financial Stability Notes, June 29, 2021_

## Source details

**Canonical URL:** [What Is Driving the Rise in Advanced Economy Bond Yields?](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/global-financial-stability-notes/issues/2021/06/29/what-is-driving-the-rise-in-advanced-economy-bond-yields-461301)

## Other formats

- [Markdown version](/en/publications/global-financial-stability-notes/issues/2021/06/29/what-is-driving-the-rise-in-advanced-economy-bond-yields-461301/index.md)
- [Structured JSON version](/en/publications/global-financial-stability-notes/issues/2021/06/29/what-is-driving-the-rise-in-advanced-economy-bond-yields-461301/index.json)
- [Bundle manifest](/en/publications/global-financial-stability-notes/issues/2021/06/29/what-is-driving-the-rise-in-advanced-economy-bond-yields-461301/bundle-manifest.json)

## Bibliographic details
- Authors: Rohit Goel, Sheheryar Malik
- Published: June 29, 2021
- Series: Global Financial Stability Notes
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781513588803.065

---

### Key findings
- The nominal bond yields for advanced economies rose sharply during the first quarter of the year.
- For the United States:
  - The rise in inflation expectations is the primary driver of the rise in US nominal bond yields over the near term.
  - The rise in real yields has been the major contributor to the rise in longer-term yields.
  - The change in term premiums has also played a key role in driving both the longer-term inflation breakeven and real yields.
- For other major advanced economies:
  - Inflation expectations have risen across the board in the near term.
  - Changes in real yields appear more pertinent as a driver for shifts in longer-term yields.

### Analysis scope and focus
- Jurisdictions covered: advanced economies (with particular investor focus on the United States).
- Tenors analyzed: across the yield curve, distinguishing near-term (inflation expectations) and longer-term (real yields and term premiums).
- Financial stability context: the rise in US nominal bond yields has had notable global financial stability spillovers.

---

## Content in this bundle

- **Gsnea2021003**
  - [Gsnea2021003 (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/gfs-notes/2021/english/gsnea2021003.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"}
  - [Gsnea2021003 (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/gfs-notes/2021/english/gsnea2021003.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"}

---

_Source: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/global-financial-stability-notes/issues/2021/06/29/what-is-driving-the-rise-in-advanced-economy-bond-yields-461301_