## How to Include the Effects of Rising Temperatures in Long-Term GDP Projections

_IMF How To Notes, November 14, 2025_

## Source details

**Canonical URL:** [How to Include the Effects of Rising Temperatures in Long-Term GDP Projections](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/imf-how-to-notes/issues/2025/11/14/how-to-include-the-effects-of-rising-temperatures-in-long-term-gdp-projections-571774)

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## Bibliographic details
- Authors: Samuele Centorrino, Emanuele Massetti, Mehdi Raissi, Filippos Tagklis
- Published: November 14, 2025
- Series: IMF How To Notes
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9798229030021.061

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### Summary
- Climate change threatens macroeconomic and financial stability through rising temperatures, shifting precipitation patterns, sea level rise, and more frequent and intense extreme weather, in addition to other factors.
- The note presents a method to integrate the effects of rising temperatures into long-term macroeconomic and GDP projections to better assess vulnerabilities and future risks.
- Impact assessments for 171 countries are available in an online Data Appendix.

### Methodology: Three-step approach
- Step 1: Estimating macroeconomic effects of rising temperatures from historical data.
- Step 2: Building temperature change scenarios from climate model simulations.
- Step 3: Integrating impacts into long-term GDP projections.
- The methodology addresses key empirical challenges and can be leveraged to assess effects of temperature increases on fiscal variables, including public debt.

### Key findings and uses
- The approach connects historical temperature–macroeconomic relationships with forward-looking climate model scenarios to produce long-term GDP projections that account for rising temperatures.
- The methodology is applicable for assessing vulnerabilities and future risks relevant to macroeconomic and financial stability.
- The framework can be used to evaluate fiscal implications, including impacts on public debt.

### Data and coverage
- Impact assessments cover 171 countries and are provided in an online Data Appendix.

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_Source: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/imf-how-to-notes/issues/2025/11/14/how-to-include-the-effects-of-rising-temperatures-in-long-term-gdp-projections-571774_