{
  "title": "How Can Europe Pay for Things That It Can't Afford?",
  "publication": "IMF Notes, November 4, 2025",
  "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/en/publications/imf-notes/issues/2025/11/04/how-can-europe-pay-for-things-that-it-can-t-afford-571439",
  "canonical": "https://www.imf.org/en/publications/imf-notes/issues/2025/11/04/how-can-europe-pay-for-things-that-it-can-t-afford-571439",
  "overlayPath": "/en/publications/imf-notes/issues/2025/11/04/how-can-europe-pay-for-things-that-it-can-t-afford-571439/index.md",
  "summary": "Europe has managed major shocks, but growth is slowing, export gains are reversing due to tariffs, and bond markets reflect rising risks. Interest rate cuts and increased fiscal spending, including defense, have not spurred private demand.",
  "sections": [
    {
      "heading": "Main findings and economic context",
      "content": "- Europe has managed major shocks, but growth is slowing.\n- Export gains are reversing due to tariffs.\n- Bond markets reflect rising risks.\n- Interest rate cuts and increased fiscal spending, including defense, have not spurred private demand.\n- The productivity gap with the US remains wide.\n- Structural reforms are lagging.\n- National priorities and slow EU decision-making hinder deeper integration of capital, labor, and product markets."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Debt projection and fiscal outlook",
      "content": "- Without stronger growth and fiscal consolidation, average European debt could reach 130 percent of GDP by 2040.\n- Reaching that debt path would require significant fiscal adjustment."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Policy recommendations (near-term)",
      "content": "- Maintain price stability.\n- Start fiscal consolidation.\n- Keep trade open."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Subjects and keywords highlighted",
      "content": "- Subject: Fiscal consolidation, Fiscal policy, Fiscal stance, Labor, Pensions, Public debt\n- Keywords: Baltics, debt simulation, Eastern Europe, Europe, Fiscal consolidation, Fiscal stance, greatest financing challenge, Pensions, policy action, policy package for Europe, reference debt\n\nIMF Notes — November 4, 2025.\n\n---\n\n Content in this bundle\n\n- How Can Europe Pay for Things That It Cannot Afford; IMF Notes No. 25/004; November 2025\n  - How Can Europe Pay for Things That It Cannot Afford; IMF Notes No. 25/004; November 2025 (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - How Can Europe Pay for Things That It Cannot Afford; IMF Notes No. 25/004; November 2025 (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n\n---\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/imf-notes/issues/2025/11/04/how-can-europe-pay-for-things-that-it-can-t-afford-571439"
    }
  ],
  "bullets": [
    "[Markdown version](/en/publications/imf-notes/issues/2025/11/04/how-can-europe-pay-for-things-that-it-can-t-afford-571439/index.md)",
    "[Structured JSON version](/en/publications/imf-notes/issues/2025/11/04/how-can-europe-pay-for-things-that-it-can-t-afford-571439/index.json)",
    "[Bundle manifest](/en/publications/imf-notes/issues/2025/11/04/how-can-europe-pay-for-things-that-it-can-t-afford-571439/bundle-manifest.json)",
    "Published: November 4, 2025",
    "Series: IMF Notes",
    "DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9798229026680.068",
    "Europe has managed major shocks, but growth is slowing.",
    "Export gains are reversing due to tariffs.",
    "Bond markets reflect rising risks.",
    "Interest rate cuts and increased fiscal spending, including defense, have not spurred private demand.",
    "The productivity gap with the US remains wide.",
    "Structural reforms are lagging.",
    "National priorities and slow EU decision-making hinder deeper integration of capital, labor, and product markets.",
    "Without stronger growth and fiscal consolidation, average European debt could reach 130 percent of GDP by 2040.",
    "Reaching that debt path would require significant fiscal adjustment.",
    "Maintain price stability.",
    "Start fiscal consolidation.",
    "Keep trade open.",
    "Subject: Fiscal consolidation, Fiscal policy, Fiscal stance, Labor, Pensions, Public debt",
    "Keywords: Baltics, debt simulation, Eastern Europe, Europe, Fiscal consolidation, Fiscal stance, greatest financing challenge, Pensions, policy action, policy package for Europe, reference debt",
    "**How Can Europe Pay for Things That It Cannot Afford; IMF Notes No. 25/004; November 2025**"
  ],
  "related": [
    {
      "title": "How Can Europe Pay for Things That It Cannot Afford; IMF Notes No. 25/004; November 2025",
      "role": "document",
      "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/imf-notes/2025/english/insea2025004.pdf",
      "summary": {
        "path": "/-/media/files/publications/imf-notes/2025/english/insea2025004.pdf.md",
        "mime": "text/markdown"
      },
      "binary": {
        "path": "/-/media/files/publications/imf-notes/2025/english/insea2025004.pdf",
        "mime": "application/pdf"
      }
    }
  ],
  "alternates": {
    "markdown": "/en/publications/imf-notes/issues/2025/11/04/how-can-europe-pay-for-things-that-it-can-t-afford-571439/index.md",
    "json": "/en/publications/imf-notes/issues/2025/11/04/how-can-europe-pay-for-things-that-it-can-t-afford-571439/index.json",
    "bundleManifest": "/en/publications/imf-notes/issues/2025/11/04/how-can-europe-pay-for-things-that-it-can-t-afford-571439/bundle-manifest.json"
  },
  "generatedAtUtc": "2026-09-21T18:48:27.648Z"
}