## 2013 Spillover Report - Analytical Underpinnings and Other Background

_Policy Papers, July 3, 2013_

## Source details

**Canonical URL:** [2013 Spillover Report - Analytical Underpinnings and Other Background](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/policy-papers/issues/2016/12/31/2013-spillover-report-analytical-underpinnings-and-other-background-pp4787)

## Other formats

- [Markdown version](/en/publications/policy-papers/issues/2016/12/31/2013-spillover-report-analytical-underpinnings-and-other-background-pp4787/index.md)
- [Structured JSON version](/en/publications/policy-papers/issues/2016/12/31/2013-spillover-report-analytical-underpinnings-and-other-background-pp4787/index.json)
- [Bundle manifest](/en/publications/policy-papers/issues/2016/12/31/2013-spillover-report-analytical-underpinnings-and-other-background-pp4787/bundle-manifest.json)

## Bibliographic details
- Published: July 3, 2013
- Series: Policy Papers

---

### Summary of purpose and scope
- High uncertainty in general, and high policy uncertainty more specifically, can have important impact on global investment and output growth.
- Much of the recent policy uncertainty emanated from the United States and Europe—the world’s two largest economies.
- This background note attempts to quantify the impact of U.S. and European policy uncertainty on other regions.
- Key questions addressed:
  - What do we mean by policy uncertainty?
  - How well can we measure it?
  - How has policy uncertainty in the United States and Europe evolved during the past several decades?
  - How large are the spillovers to economic activity in other regions?

### Channels of spillovers identified
- Trade channel:
  - Trade can be affected if increased policy uncertainty adversely affects economic activity and import demand in the United States and Europe.
- Financial/ risk-aversion channel:
  - Policy uncertainty could raise global risk aversion, resulting in sharp corrections in financial markets and capital outflows from emerging markets.

### Main analytical findings
- The analysis suggests that sharp increases in U.S. and European policy uncertainty in the past have temporarily lowered investment and output in other regions to varying degrees.
- The analysis suggests that a marked decrease in policy uncertainty in the United States and Europe in the near term could help boost global investment and output.

### Metadata and publication details
- Title: 2013 Spillover Report - Analytical Underpinnings and Other Background
- Publication date: July 3, 2013
- Citation preview format: Chicago
- Citation preview text: 2013 Spillover Report - Analytical Underpinnings and Other Background, (USA: International Monetary Fund, 0) accessed 9/17/2026
- Subject tags: Background papers, Capital flows, China, Europe, Fiscal policy, Japan, Monetary policy, Spillovers, United Kingdom, United States

*International Monetary Fund*

---

## Content in this bundle

- **_070313a**
  - [_070313a (Markdown version)](/-/media/websites/imf/imported-full-text-pdf/external/np/pp/eng/2013/_070313a.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"}
  - [_070313a (PDF)](/-/media/websites/imf/imported-full-text-pdf/external/np/pp/eng/2013/_070313a.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"}

---

_Source: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/policy-papers/issues/2016/12/31/2013-spillover-report-analytical-underpinnings-and-other-background-pp4787_