## 2021 Comprehensive Surveillance Review— Background Paper on Scenario Planning

_Policy Papers, May 18, 2021_

## Source details

**Canonical URL:** [2021 Comprehensive Surveillance Review— Background Paper on Scenario Planning](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/policy-papers/issues/2021/05/18/2021-comprehensive-surveillance-review-background-paper-on-scenario-planning-460340)

## Other formats

- [Markdown version](/en/publications/policy-papers/issues/2021/05/18/2021-comprehensive-surveillance-review-background-paper-on-scenario-planning-460340/index.md)
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## Bibliographic details
- Published: May 18, 2021
- Series: Policy Papers
- DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781513583174.007

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### Overview
- Publication date: May 18, 2021
- Core purpose: Use scenario planning exercises to draw out surveillance priorities and stress-test the robustness of those priorities to uncertainties in the decade ahead.
- Central priorities addressed:
  - Confronting risks and uncertainties
  - Mitigating spillovers
  - Economic sustainability through a unified policy approach

### Key findings from the scenario planning exercises
- The scenarios illustrate how different shocks and alternative policy approaches:
  - Carry their own risks
  - Can have both positive and negative spillovers
- Scenarios demonstrate complex economic and non-economic factors feeding into the priority on economic sustainability
- Scenarios show how resource constraints and changing economic structures underpin the need for a unified policy approach

### Policy implications and emphasis
- Surveillance priorities should be stress-tested against a range of plausible scenarios over the next decade
- Policies must account for:
  - Trade-offs where actions to address one risk can create spillovers elsewhere
  - Interactions between economic sustainability concerns and non-economic factors
- A unified policy approach is warranted given resource constraints and evolving economic structures

### Subjects and keywords
- Subject: Economic sectors, Environment, Fintech, Health, Monetary policy, Political economy, Technology, Transnational corporations
- Keywords: Europe, Fintech, Global, IMF's transparency policy, policy approach, projections of the IMF, service provision, surveillance priority, Transnational corporations

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## Content in this bundle

- **Policy Paper**
  - [Policy Paper (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/pp/2021/english/ppea2021035.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"}
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_Source: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/policy-papers/issues/2021/05/18/2021-comprehensive-surveillance-review-background-paper-on-scenario-planning-460340_