## Regional Economic Outlook: Asia and Pacific, October 2010: Consolidating the Recovery and Building Sustainable Growth

_Asia and Pacific, October 21, 2010_

## Source details

**Canonical URL:** [Regional Economic Outlook: Asia and Pacific, October 2010: Consolidating the Recovery and Building Sustainable Growth](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/reo/apac/issues/2017/01/07/regional-economic-outlook-asia-and-pacific3)

## Other formats

- [Markdown version](/en/publications/reo/apac/issues/2017/01/07/regional-economic-outlook-asia-and-pacific3/index.md)
- [Structured JSON version](/en/publications/reo/apac/issues/2017/01/07/regional-economic-outlook-asia-and-pacific3/index.json)
- [Bundle manifest](/en/publications/reo/apac/issues/2017/01/07/regional-economic-outlook-asia-and-pacific3/bundle-manifest.json)

## Bibliographic details
- Published: October 21, 2010
- Series: Asia and Pacific

---

### Near-term outlook and headline findings
- Press Release headline: IMF Sees Strong Growth in Asia Continuing, Further Policy Tightening Needed.
- One year after the deepest recession in recent history, Asia is leading the global recovery.
- The region rebounded swiftly during 2009 and in the first quarter of 2010.
- In the near term the region is expected to continue leading the global recovery.
- In the medium term, the global crisis has highlighted the importance for Asia of ensuring that private domestic demand becomes a more prominent engine of growth.

### Structure and major analytical themes (table of contents)
- Executive Summary
- I. Moving to Sustainable Growth: Risks and Challenges
  - A. Recent Developments and Emerging Pressures
  - B. Economic Outlook
  - C. Risks
  - D. Policy Challenges
- II. Inflation Dynamics in Asia
  - A. Introduction
  - B. Explaining Inflation Dynamics in Asia
  - C. A Closer Look at Inflation Dynamics in China and India
  - D. Conclusions and Policy Implications
  - Appendix 2.1. Global VAR
  - Appendix 2.2. Structural VAR (SVAR)
- III. Investment and Rebalancing in Asia
  - B. Investment Trends in Asia
  - C. What Drives Investment in Asia?
  - D. Policy Implications: How Can Asia Facilitate Rebalancing Through Investment?
  - E. Summary
  - Appendix 3.1. Firm-Level Analysis
- IV. Low-Income Countries and the Pacific Islands
  - B. Postcrisis Fiscal Adjustment in Asian Low-Income Countries
  - C. Sri Lanka: At a Crossroads
  - D. Mongolia: A Remarkable Turnaround
  - E. Fiscal Challenges for Compact Countries—Marshall Islands, Micronesia, and Palau

### Key analytical focus areas and methodologies
- Inflation analysis:
  - Persistence of Food Price Inflation (Box 2.1)
  - Use of Global VAR and Structural VAR (Appendix 2.1 and 2.2)
  - Country-specific NKPC estimates for China and India (Tables 2.2–2.5)
- Investment and rebalancing:
  - Firm-level analysis and determinants of private investment spending (Appendix 3.1; Tables 3.1–3.4)
  - Role of infrastructure on private investment (Table 3.2)
  - Corporate sector leverage and investment composition (Figures 3.10, 3.7)
- Financial and fiscal risk monitoring:
  - Financial Conditions Index for Asia (Box 1.3)
  - Fiscal impulses and projected general government gross debt (Figures 1.22, 1.50)
  - Gross Public Debt, 2009 (Figure 1.43)
- Special country and regional studies:
  - Sri Lanka: Gross Official Reserves, Inflation and GDP Growth (Tables/Figures in Chapter 4)
  - Mongolia: Real GDP and Mineral Exports (Figures 4.6–4.7)
  - Fiscal situations for Compact countries and Pacific Island economies (Tables 4.8–4.12)

### Policy implications and recommendations (as signposted in the report)
- Near-term:
  - Monitor and, where appropriate, tighten macroeconomic policies as recovery continues (implied by Press Release: Further Policy Tightening Needed).
- Medium-term:
  - Promote a shift toward private domestic demand as a more prominent engine of growth to achieve sustainable rebalancing.
- Inflation and monetary policy:
  - Analyze inflation dynamics including food and commodity shocks, and calibrate policy responses informed by country-level NKPC and VAR analyses.
- Investment and structural policies:
  - Facilitate rebalancing through policies that support private investment, including infrastructure, corporate sector reforms, and improving fundamentals highlighted in firm-level and aggregate investment analyses.
- Fiscal policy in low-income and small island economies:
  - Implement postcrisis fiscal adjustment and reforms tailored to country circumstances, with attention to grant dependence and public wage and revenue structures in Pacific Island economies.

*Regional Economic Outlook: Asia and Pacific, October 2010: Consolidating the Recovery and Building Sustainable Growth*

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## Content in this bundle

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---

## References

- [Press Release: IMF Sees Strong Growth in Asia Continuing, Further Policy Tightening Needed](https://www.imf.org/external/np/sec/pr/2010/pr10393.htm)
- [Watch a video about the Outlook](https://www.imf.org/external/mmedia/view.aspx?vid=641811284001)
- [Transcript of a Press Briefing, October 21, 2010, Jakarta](https://www.imf.org/external/np/tr/2010/tr102110a.htm)
- [World Economic Outlook](https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2010/02/index.htm)
- [Disclaimer](https://www.imf.org/external/terms.htm)
- [Adobe Acrobat Reader)](https://www.imf.org/adobe)
- [https://www.imf.org/en/home](https://www.imf.org/en/home)

_Source: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/reo/apac/issues/2017/01/07/regional-economic-outlook-asia-and-pacific3_