{
  "title": "Regional Economic Outlook for Asia and Pacific, October 2021",
  "publication": "Regional Economic Outlook",
  "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/en/publications/reo/apac/issues/2021/10/15/regional-economic-outlook-for-asia-and-pacific-october-2021",
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  "summary": "<p>The Asian outlook for 2021 has been downgraded by more than 1 percent to 6.5 percent compared with the&nbsp;<em><a href=\"https://www.imf.",
  "sections": [
    {
      "heading": "Pandemic resurgence and regional outlook",
      "content": "- The publication states the Asian outlook for 2021 was downgraded by more than 1 percent to 6.5 percent compared with the April 2021 World Economic Outlook because of new peaks of the pandemic cycle driven by the highly contagious Delta variant.\n- The publication projects global growth of 5.9 percent in 2021 and 4.9 percent in 2022 (0.1 percentage point lower for 2021 than in the July 2021 World Economic Outlook Update).\n- The publication notes that advanced economies are forecast to grow 5.6 percent in 2021, led by a rebound in the US and Europe.\n- The publication projects that beyond 2022 global growth is projected to moderate to about 3.5 percent over the medium term.\n- The publication characterizes the ongoing rise in inflation as expected to be transitory, though uncertainty remains high.\n- The publication highlights a deepening divergence between Asian advanced economies and emerging market and developing economies, reflecting vaccination coverage and policy support, and states that medium-term output levels in emerging market and developing economies are expected to remain below pre-pandemic trends.\n- The publication lists risks tilted to the downside: uncertain pandemic dynamics, vaccine efficacy against virus variants, supply chain disruptions, and potential global financial spillovers from US monetary normalization in the presence of domestic financial vulnerabilities."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Leveraging opportunities from COVID-19 vaccines — empirical findings",
      "content": "- The publication uses novel daily data to examine determinants of COVID-19 vaccine rollouts and quantify effects of vaccinations on health and economic outcomes.\n- Determinants of vaccine deployment identified in the publication include:\n  - the severity of the COVID-19 waves in 2020,\n  - procurement strategies,\n  - local production of vaccines,\n  - the quality of the health infrastructure,\n  - vaccine acceptance.\n- The publication provides empirical evidence that:\n  - the swift and broad administration of vaccines can provide a significant boost in economic activity, with the effect increasing over time and when a larger share of population gets vaccinated;\n  - improvements in health outcomes are more visible when a country is in the middle of a significant outbreak and containment measures are in place;\n  - cross-country health and economic spillovers from COVID-19 infections and vaccine rollouts are sizable, supporting the statement that the pandemic will not be over anywhere until it is over everywhere and putting a premium on broad access to vaccines."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Reigniting growth through trade liberalization — findings and quantified effects",
      "content": "- The publication reports that trade openness and global value chain (GVC) integration have stalled in Asia since the global financial crisis, partly reflecting a slower pace of trade liberalization.\n- The publication uses a novel index of trade restrictions to assess potential gains from reducing nontariff barriers (NTBs).\n- Empirical estimates and model-based simulations in the publication indicate that GDP could increase by about 1.6 percent five years after a major reform effort to reduce NTBs.\n- The publication states that a renewed push to liberalize trade can invigorate durable growth and minimize post-pandemic scarring, while noting that policies to mitigate the impact of trade reforms on inequality may be needed."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Key statistics and projections (as reported)",
      "content": "- Asian outlook for 2021: 6.5 percent (downgraded by more than 1 percent versus April 2021 WEO).\n- Global growth: 5.9 percent in 2021; 4.9 percent in 2022.\n- Adjustment versus July 2021 WEO Update: 0.1 percentage point lower for global growth in 2021.\n- Advanced economies growth in 2021: 5.6 percent.\n- Medium-term global growth projection: about 3.5 percent.\n- Estimated GDP gain from major NTB reduction: about 1.6 percent five years after reform."
    }
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      "title": "Executive Summary",
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