{ "title": "Regional Economic Outlook: Europe -- Addressing the Crisis, May 2009 -- Table of Contents", "publication": "Europe, May 12, 2009", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/en/publications/reo/eu/issues/2017/01/07/regional-economic-outlook-europe1", "canonical": "https://www.imf.org/en/publications/reo/eu/issues/2017/01/07/regional-economic-outlook-europe1", "overlayPath": "/en/publications/reo/eu/issues/2017/01/07/regional-economic-outlook-europe1/index.md", "summary": "Europe is in a deep recession. Adverse feedback between the financial and real sectors and across borders is likely to delay the recovery and create downside risks.", "sections": [ { "heading": "Executive overview and key findings", "content": "- Europe is in a deep recession.\n- Adverse feedback between the financial and real sectors and across borders is likely to delay the recovery and create downside risks.\n- Unprecedented policies have been undertaken to address the crisis—but their success and sufficiency for a tightly integrated region are uncertain.\n- To restore trust and confidence in financial markets, additional and forceful action will be essential.\n- Maintaining fiscal support should help soften the downturn, in particular if sustainability is supported by solid medium-term strategies and fiscal frameworks.\n- To be effective, these policies require coordination across advanced and emerging economies.\n- The report's analytical work underpins the link between fiscal sustainability, coordination, and effectiveness.\n- Emerging markets have been affected differently by the crisis, with the quality of policies and external vulnerabilities being key factors.\n\nPress Release on the European Regional Economic Outlook, May 12, 2009; Regional Economic Outlook: Europe, May 2009." }, { "heading": "Outlook: Galvanizing Recovery (Chapter 1 themes)", "content": "- Synchronized Recession\n- Impromptu Policy Reaction\n- Uncertain Outlook\n- Calling for a Well-Articulated and Effectively Coordinated Policy Response" }, { "heading": "Fiscal policy in advanced countries (Chapter 2 themes and policy guidance)", "content": "- Overview of fiscal costs of the crisis and the effectiveness of interventions.\n- Fiscal Costs of the Crisis\n- Making the Most Out of Fiscal Interventions\n- Treasuring Fiscal Solvency\n- Ensuring Fiscal Sustainability: Policy Options\n- Conclusions and Policy Implications\n- Emphasis: maintain fiscal support while implementing solid medium-term strategies and fiscal frameworks to preserve sustainability." }, { "heading": "European emerging economies in the crisis (Chapter 3 themes and findings)", "content": "- Who Got Hurt More? Stylized Facts\n- What Explains the Widened Spreads: Known Vulnerabilities or the Convergence Criteria Checklist?\n- Banking Sector Holds a Key to the Recovery from the Crisis\n- Policy Implications\n- Analytical emphasis: cross-country differences driven by policy quality and external vulnerabilities." }, { "heading": "Financial sector and supervision (Chapter 4 theme)", "content": "- Redesigning Financial Supervision in the European Union" }, { "heading": "Sovereign financing and fiscal rules (Chapters 5–7 themes)", "content": "- Sovereign Financing Needs of Advanced Economies and the Rollover Risk\n- Is the Stability and Growth Pact an Obstacle to Adequate Fiscal Stabilization?\n- Crisis Duration Across Emerging Market" }, { "heading": "Notable boxes in the report", "content": "- Has the Financial Crisis Impaired Monetary Transmission in the Euro Area?\n- Growth Prospects in Emerging Europe After the Global Crisis\n- A Case Study in Coordination: Deposit Guarantee" }, { "heading": "Key tables (selected titles and temporal coverage)", "content": "- European Countries: Real GDP Growth and CPI Inflation, 2006–10\n- European Countries: External and Fiscal Balances, 2006–10\n- IMF Support for European Countries Affected by the Global Crisis\n- Headline Support for the Financial Sector and Up-Front Financing Need\n- Advanced European Economies: Estimated Cost of Discretionary Measures, 2008–10\n- Ranges of Fiscal Multipliers Used by IMF Country Teams\n- The Case for Fiscal Stimulus: Effects of Fiscal Stimulus Under Distressed Financial Markets\n- Coordination Gains: Cumulated Effects of Fiscal Stimulus on a Large Euro Area Country\n- Sovereign Spreads: Estimated Panel Regression\n- Solvency Concerns Increases Risk Premiums Thereby Reducing the Effectiveness of Fiscal Stimulus\n- A Snapshot of Emerging Markets\n- Did the Convergence Criteria Matter?\n- Correlation with Loan Loss Provisions\n- Banks in Emerging Europe Were Imprudent in the Past\n- Consumption Growth Is Correlated with Credit Growth\n- Consumption Growth Depends upon Credit Growth\n- Projected Changes in Public Debt\n- Selected Euro Area Countries: Sovereign Spreads and Financial Institutions' Expected Default Probabilities, 2008-January 2009\n- Estimated Common Component in Sovereign Spreads, 2001-January 2009\n- Contributions to the Change in Spreads\n- EMBIG Spreads, 2005-November 2008\n- Spreads and Banking System Characteristics\n- Residuals from the Fixed Effects Regression for Sovereign Spreads, January 2001-October 2008" }, { "heading": "Key figures (selected titles and temporal coverage)", "content": "- Euro Area: Contribution to Growth, 2006–08\n- Selected European Countries: Headline and Core Inflation, January 2006–February 2009\n- iTraxx Credit Default Swap Europe Financials’ Index, March 2007–April 2009\n- Generalized Impulse Response Functions: Rate of Growth of Real GDP in Response to Negative Standard Error Shock to U.S. Equity Price Growth Rate\n- Estimating Shifts in the Global Price of Risk, 2007–March 2009\n- Selected European Countries: Growth of Real Credit to Private Sector, 2006–January 2009\n- Europe, Asia, and United States: Value of Trade, 1995-2007\n- Trade and Financial Integration Within Europe\n- Euro Area and United Kingdom: Liquidity Premium, 2007-April 2009\n- Government Support, Including Guarantees, to Banks, 2008-09\n- New Member States: Country-Specific Components of Sovereign Spreads, September 2008-January 2009\n- Selected Advanced Economies: Break-Even Inflation, 2007-April 2009\n- Germany, France, and Italy: Trade and GDP, 1991-2008\n- Advanced European Economies: Estimated Impact of Automatic Stabilizers on Fiscal Balances, 2008-09\n- Advanced European Economies: Fiscal Revenues During Episodes of House and Equity Price Busts\n- Selected Euro Area Countries: Sovereign Spreads and Financial Institutions' Expected Default Probabilities, 2008-January 2009\n\nRegional Economic Outlook: Europe -- Addressing the Crisis, May 2009 -- Table of Contents (web landing page).\n\n---\n\n Content in this bundle\n\n- Perspectives économiques régionales : EUROPE — Comment affronter la crise\n - Perspectives économiques régionales : EUROPE — Comment affronter la crise (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - Perspectives économiques régionales : EUROPE — Comment affronter la crise (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Ereo0509ppfpdf\n - Ereo0509ppfpdf (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - Ereo0509ppfpdf (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Regionaler Wirtschaftsausblick: Europa -- Der Krise begegnen. Zusammenfassung; Mai 2009.\n - Regionaler Wirtschaftsausblick: Europa -- Der Krise begegnen. Zusammenfassung; Mai 2009. (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - Regionaler Wirtschaftsausblick: Europa -- Der Krise begegnen. Zusammenfassung; Mai 2009. (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Regionaler Wirtschaftsausblick Frühjahr 2009 Europa: Pressepunkte für Kapitel 2 und Kapitel 3\n - Regionaler Wirtschaftsausblick Frühjahr 2009 Europa: Pressepunkte für Kapitel 2 und Kapitel 3 (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - Regionaler Wirtschaftsausblick Frühjahr 2009 Europa: Pressepunkte für Kapitel 2 und Kapitel 3 (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Regionální ekonomický výhled, jaro 2009: Evropa -- Body pro tisk – Kapitola 2, Kapitola 3\n - Regionální ekonomický výhled, jaro 2009: Evropa -- Body pro tisk – Kapitola 2, Kapitola 3 (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - Regionální ekonomický výhled, jaro 2009: Evropa -- Body pro tisk – Kapitola 2, Kapitola 3 (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Regional Economic Outlook: Europe: Addressing the Crisis; May 2009 -- Executive Summary.\n - Regional Economic Outlook: Europe: Addressing the Crisis; May 2009 -- Executive Summary. (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - Regional Economic Outlook: Europe: Addressing the Crisis; May 2009 -- Executive Summary. (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Regional Economic Outlook: Europe\n - Regional Economic Outlook: Europe (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - Regional Economic Outlook: Europe (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Regional Economic Outlook: Europe -- Press points for Chapters 2 and 3; May 2009.\n - Regional Economic Outlook: Europe -- Press points for Chapters 2 and 3; May 2009. (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - Regional Economic Outlook: Europe -- Press points for Chapters 2 and 3; May 2009. (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Перспективы развития региональной экономики: ЕВРОПА — Преодоление кризиса\n - Перспективы развития региональной экономики: ЕВРОПА — Преодоление кризиса (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - Перспективы развития региональной экономики: ЕВРОПА — Преодоление кризиса (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- ereo0509pprpdf\n - ereo0509pprpdf (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - ereo0509pprpdf (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Ereo0509exspdf\n - Ereo0509exspdf (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - Ereo0509exspdf (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Perspectivas económicas regionales: Europa - Notas de prensa de los capítulos 2 y 3\n - Perspectivas económicas regionales: Europa - Notas de prensa de los capítulos 2 y 3 (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - Perspectivas económicas regionales: Europa - Notas de prensa de los capítulos 2 y 3 (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n\n---\n\n References\n\n- Press Release on the European Regional Economic Outlook\n- Regional Economic Outlooks\n- IMF Regional Reports\n- World Economic Outlook:\n- Sign up to receive free e-mail notices when new series and/or country items are posted on the IMF website.\n- Modify your profile\n- Adobe Acrobat Reader\n- https://www.imf.org/en/home\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/reo/eu/issues/2017/01/07/regional-economic-outlook-europe1" } ], "bullets": [ "[Markdown version](/en/publications/reo/eu/issues/2017/01/07/regional-economic-outlook-europe1/index.md)", "[Structured JSON version](/en/publications/reo/eu/issues/2017/01/07/regional-economic-outlook-europe1/index.json)", "[Bundle manifest](/en/publications/reo/eu/issues/2017/01/07/regional-economic-outlook-europe1/bundle-manifest.json)", "Published: May 12, 2009", "Series: Europe", "Europe is in a deep recession.", "Adverse feedback between the financial and real sectors and across borders is likely to delay the recovery and create downside risks.", "Unprecedented policies have been undertaken to address the crisis—but their success and sufficiency for a tightly integrated region are uncertain.", "To restore trust and confidence in financial markets, additional and forceful action will be essential.", "Maintaining fiscal support should help soften the downturn, in particular if sustainability is supported by solid medium-term strategies and fiscal frameworks.", "To be effective, these policies require coordination across advanced and emerging economies.", "The report's analytical work underpins the link between fiscal sustainability, coordination, and effectiveness.", "Emerging markets have been affected differently by the crisis, with the quality of policies and external vulnerabilities being key factors.", "Synchronized Recession", "Impromptu Policy Reaction", "Uncertain Outlook", "Calling for a Well-Articulated and Effectively Coordinated Policy Response", "Overview of fiscal costs of the crisis and the effectiveness of interventions.", "Fiscal Costs of the Crisis", "Making the Most Out of Fiscal Interventions", "Treasuring Fiscal Solvency", "Ensuring Fiscal Sustainability: Policy Options", "Conclusions and Policy Implications", "Emphasis: maintain fiscal support while implementing solid medium-term strategies and fiscal frameworks to preserve sustainability.", "Who Got Hurt More? Stylized Facts", "What Explains the Widened Spreads: Known Vulnerabilities or the Convergence Criteria Checklist?", "Banking Sector Holds a Key to the Recovery from the Crisis", "Policy Implications", "Analytical emphasis: cross-country differences driven by policy quality and external vulnerabilities.", "Redesigning Financial Supervision in the European Union", "Sovereign Financing Needs of Advanced Economies and the Rollover Risk", "Is the Stability and Growth Pact an Obstacle to Adequate Fiscal Stabilization?", "Crisis Duration Across Emerging Market", "Has the Financial Crisis Impaired Monetary Transmission in the Euro Area?", "Growth Prospects in Emerging Europe After the Global Crisis", "A Case Study in Coordination: Deposit Guarantee", "European Countries: Real GDP Growth and CPI Inflation, 2006–10", "European Countries: External and Fiscal Balances, 2006–10", "IMF Support for European Countries Affected by the Global Crisis", "Headline Support for the Financial Sector and Up-Front Financing Need", "Advanced European Economies: Estimated Cost of Discretionary Measures, 2008–10", "Ranges of Fiscal Multipliers Used by IMF Country Teams", "The Case for Fiscal Stimulus: Effects of Fiscal Stimulus Under Distressed Financial Markets", "Coordination Gains: Cumulated Effects of Fiscal Stimulus on a Large Euro Area Country", "Sovereign Spreads: Estimated Panel Regression", "Solvency Concerns Increases Risk Premiums Thereby Reducing the Effectiveness of Fiscal Stimulus", "A Snapshot of Emerging Markets", "Did the Convergence Criteria Matter?", "Correlation with Loan Loss Provisions", "Banks in Emerging Europe Were Imprudent in the Past", "Consumption Growth Is Correlated with Credit Growth", "Consumption Growth Depends upon Credit Growth", "Projected Changes in Public Debt", "Selected Euro Area Countries: Sovereign Spreads and Financial Institutions' Expected Default Probabilities, 2008-January 2009", "Estimated Common Component in Sovereign Spreads, 2001-January 2009", "Contributions to the Change in Spreads", "EMBIG Spreads, 2005-November 2008", "Spreads and Banking System Characteristics", "Residuals from the Fixed Effects Regression for Sovereign Spreads, January 2001-October 2008", "Euro Area: Contribution to Growth, 2006–08", "Selected European Countries: Headline and Core Inflation, January 2006–February 2009", "iTraxx Credit Default Swap Europe Financials’ Index, March 2007–April 2009", "Generalized Impulse Response Functions: Rate of Growth of Real GDP in Response to Negative Standard Error Shock to U.S. Equity Price Growth Rate", "Estimating Shifts in the Global Price of Risk, 2007–March 2009", "Selected European Countries: Growth of Real Credit to Private Sector, 2006–January 2009", "Europe, Asia, and United States: Value of Trade, 1995-2007", "Trade and Financial Integration Within Europe", "Euro Area and United Kingdom: Liquidity Premium, 2007-April 2009", "Government Support, Including Guarantees, to Banks, 2008-09", "New Member States: Country-Specific Components of Sovereign Spreads, September 2008-January 2009", "Selected Advanced Economies: Break-Even Inflation, 2007-April 2009", "Germany, France, and Italy: Trade and GDP, 1991-2008", "Advanced European Economies: Estimated Impact of Automatic Stabilizers on Fiscal Balances, 2008-09", "Advanced European Economies: Fiscal Revenues During Episodes of House and Equity Price Busts", "Selected Euro Area Countries: Sovereign Spreads and Financial Institutions' Expected Default Probabilities, 2008-January 2009", "**Perspectives économiques régionales : EUROPE — Comment affronter la crise**", "**Ereo0509ppfpdf**", "**Regionaler Wirtschaftsausblick: Europa -- Der Krise begegnen. Zusammenfassung; Mai 2009.**", "**Regionaler Wirtschaftsausblick Frühjahr 2009 Europa: Pressepunkte für Kapitel 2 und Kapitel 3**", "**Regionální ekonomický výhled, jaro 2009: Evropa -- Body pro tisk – Kapitola 2, Kapitola 3**", "**Regional Economic Outlook: Europe: Addressing the Crisis; May 2009 -- Executive Summary.**", "**Regional Economic Outlook: Europe**", "**Regional Economic Outlook: Europe -- Press points for Chapters 2 and 3; May 2009.**", "**Перспективы развития региональной экономики: ЕВРОПА — Преодоление кризиса**", "**_ereo0509pprpdf**", "**Ereo0509exspdf**", "**Perspectivas económicas regionales: Europa - Notas de prensa de los capítulos 2 y 3**", "[Press Release on the European Regional Economic Outlook](https://www.imf.org/external/np/sec/pr/2009/pr09159.htm)", "[Regional Economic Outlooks](https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/reo/reorepts.aspx)", "[IMF Regional Reports](https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/region.asp)", "[World Economic Outlook:](https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2009/01/index.htm)", "[Sign up to receive free e-mail notices when new series and/or country items are posted on the IMF website.](https://www.imf.org/en/email-subscription/index)", "[Modify your profile](https://www.imf.org/en/email-subscription/login)", "[Adobe Acrobat Reader](https://www.imf.org/adobe)" ], "related": [ { "title": "Perspectives économiques régionales : EUROPE — Comment affronter la crise", "role": "document", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/websites/imf/imported-flagship-issues/external/french/pubs/ft/reo/2009/eur/_ereo0509exfpdf.pdf", "summary": { "path": "/-/media/websites/imf/imported-flagship-issues/external/french/pubs/ft/reo/2009/eur/_ereo0509exfpdf.pdf.md", "mime": "text/markdown" }, "binary": { "path": "/-/media/websites/imf/imported-flagship-issues/external/french/pubs/ft/reo/2009/eur/_ereo0509exfpdf.pdf", "mime": "application/pdf" } }, { "title": "Ereo0509ppfpdf", "role": "document", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/websites/imf/imported-flagship-issues/external/french/pubs/ft/reo/2009/eur/_ereo0509ppfpdf.pdf", "summary": { "path": "/-/media/websites/imf/imported-flagship-issues/external/french/pubs/ft/reo/2009/eur/_ereo0509ppfpdf.pdf.md", "mime": "text/markdown" }, "binary": { "path": "/-/media/websites/imf/imported-flagship-issues/external/french/pubs/ft/reo/2009/eur/_ereo0509ppfpdf.pdf", "mime": "application/pdf" } }, { "title": "Regionaler Wirtschaftsausblick: Europa -- Der Krise begegnen. Zusammenfassung; Mai 2009.", "role": "document", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/websites/imf/imported-flagship-issues/external/german/pubs/ft/reo/2009/eur/_ereo0509exdpdf.pdf", "summary": { "path": "/-/media/websites/imf/imported-flagship-issues/external/german/pubs/ft/reo/2009/eur/_ereo0509exdpdf.pdf.md", "mime": "text/markdown" }, "binary": { "path": "/-/media/websites/imf/imported-flagship-issues/external/german/pubs/ft/reo/2009/eur/_ereo0509exdpdf.pdf", "mime": "application/pdf" } }, { "title": "Regionaler Wirtschaftsausblick Frühjahr 2009 Europa: Pressepunkte für Kapitel 2 und Kapitel 3", "role": "document", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/websites/imf/imported-flagship-issues/external/german/pubs/ft/reo/2009/eur/_ereo0509ppdpdf.pdf", "summary": { "path": "/-/media/websites/imf/imported-flagship-issues/external/german/pubs/ft/reo/2009/eur/_ereo0509ppdpdf.pdf.md", "mime": "text/markdown" }, "binary": { "path": "/-/media/websites/imf/imported-flagship-issues/external/german/pubs/ft/reo/2009/eur/_ereo0509ppdpdf.pdf", "mime": "application/pdf" } }, { "title": "Regionální ekonomický výhled, jaro 2009: Evropa -- Body pro tisk – Kapitola 2, Kapitola 3", "role": "document", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/websites/imf/imported-flagship-issues/external/pubs/ft/reo/2009/eur/cze/_ereo0509ppczpdf.pdf", "summary": { "path": "/-/media/websites/imf/imported-flagship-issues/external/pubs/ft/reo/2009/eur/cze/_ereo0509ppczpdf.pdf.md", "mime": "text/markdown" }, "binary": { "path": "/-/media/websites/imf/imported-flagship-issues/external/pubs/ft/reo/2009/eur/cze/_ereo0509ppczpdf.pdf", "mime": "application/pdf" } }, { "title": "Regional Economic Outlook: Europe: Addressing the Crisis; 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