{ "title": "Regional Economic Outlook: Europe -- Reassessing Risks, April 2008 -- Table of Contents", "publication": "Europe, April 18, 2008", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/en/publications/reo/eu/issues/2017/01/07/regional-economic-outlook-europe7", "canonical": "https://www.imf.org/en/publications/reo/eu/issues/2017/01/07/regional-economic-outlook-europe7", "overlayPath": "/en/publications/reo/eu/issues/2017/01/07/regional-economic-outlook-europe7/index.md", "summary": "Europe is facing slower growth as a result of protracted financial turbulence and spillovers from the U.S. Meanwhile, inflation has risen sharply.", "publishDate": "2008-04-18", "series": "Europe", "sections": [ { "heading": "Executive summary and thematic overview", "content": "- Europe is facing slower growth as a result of protracted financial turbulence and spillovers from the U.S.\n- Inflation has risen sharply.\n- Policymakers in advanced economies will have to continue to support financial markets and balance risks to real activity with the need to anchor inflation.\n- Emerging Europe is well placed to continue to grow, albeit at a slower pace, amid concerns about overheating and external imbalances in several countries.\n- Sound macroeconomic policies and structural reforms will be necessary to ensure a soft landing in these countries and smooth convergence throughout the region." }, { "heading": "Outlook: Navigating turbulent waters", "content": "- Major subsections:\n - Advanced Economies\n - Emerging Economies" }, { "heading": "Financial turbulence: transmission and macro effects", "content": "- Major subsections:\n - How Financial Turbulence Spread To Europe\n - Impact On Financial System Resilience\n - Impact on the Real Economy\n- Included box: Financial Turbulence: Policy Lessons" }, { "heading": "Convergence in Emerging Europe: sustainability and vulnerabilities", "content": "- Major subsections:\n - Overview\n - Sustaining Growth\n - Addressing Vulnerabilities\n - Running Sound Macroeconomic Policies\n - Policy Agenda\n- Included boxes:\n - Understanding Food Price Inflation in Emerging Europe\n - Spillovers from Weaker U.S. Growth" }, { "heading": "Banking sector spillovers and regional contagion", "content": "- Dedicated chapters and analyses:\n - Spillover Risks among Major EU Banks\n - Regional Financial Interlinkages and Contagion Channels\n - Banks' Risk Profile, Credit Growth, and the Real Economy\n - Real Sector Implications of Financial Turbulence for an Emerging Market Economy" }, { "heading": "Growth, debt, and external vulnerability analyses", "content": "- Analytical chapters and appendices:\n - Potential Growth Estimates in Emerging Europe Based on a Growth Model\n - Current Account Sustainability in the EU-10\n - Response of External Debt-GDP Ratio to Adverse Shocks, 2007-11\n - Response of GDP Growth to a 10-Percentage-Point Decline in Credit Growth" }, { "heading": "Empirical material: tables", "content": "- Key tables listed:\n - European Countries: Real GDP Growth and CPI Inflation, 2006-09\n - European Countries: External and Fiscal Balances, Government Debt, 2006-08\n - Measuring the Impact of Risk Repricing on Selected Markets\n - Net Bank Exposure to U.S. Subprime Mortgage Markets\n - Estimated Losses on Mortgage-Related Subprime Bank Exposures\n - Output Response to Financial Shocks: Simulation Results\n - Determinants of Growth in Emerging Europe, 2003-07\n - Sustainability of Current Account Deficits Based on a Model of Regional Convergence, 2007" }, { "heading": "Empirical material: figures", "content": "- Selected figures and time spans (as listed):\n - Europe and the United States: Real GDP Growth, 2001-09\n - Key Short-Term Indicators\n - Euro Area: Contribution of Food and Energy to Headline Inflation, January 2006-December 2007\n - Euro Area: Cost of Financing, 2003-08\n - Spreads of Three-Month Interbank Rates over Expected Policy Rates, 2007-08\n - Changes in Credit Standards for Loans to Enterprises and Households, 2005-08\n - Measures of the Euro Exchange Rate, 1999-2008\n - Growth in Emerging Europe, 2001-09\n - Emerging Europe: Confidence Indicators, January 2006-February 2008\n - Emerging Europe: Sovereign and Corporate Bond Spreads, January 2007-March 2008\n - Emerging Markets: Private Sector External Bond Issuance, 2006-08\n - Emerging Europe: Bond Spreads and Current Account Deficits\n - Central and Eastern Europe: Credit Growth and House Prices, 2002-06\n - Estimating Shifts in the Global Price of Risk, 2007-08\n - Reassessing Risks Across Asset Classes and Borders\n - Euro Area Lending to Nonfinancial Corporations and Households, 2000-08\n - Changes in the Balance Sheet of the European Banking System\n - Expected Default Frequencies (EDF), 2007-08\n - Implied Spreads, 2007-08\n - Market Leverage Versus Asset Volatility of Exposed EU Banks, 2007-08\n - European Banks: Market Evaluation of Assets in Distress\n - Convergence in Emerging Europe and in the Rest of the World, 2002-06\n - GDP per Capita and Current Account Balances, 2007\n - Emerging Europe: Value Added by Sector, Contributions to Real GDP Growth, 2002-0\n - Emerging Europe: Domestic and External Demand, Contributions to Real GDP Growth, 2002-06\n - Emerging Europe: Growth Accounting, 2002-06\n - Growth and Private Sector Credit Growth, 2002-06\n - Emerging Europe: Contributions to Current Account Deficit, 2003-07\n - Emerging Europe: FDI Coverage of Current Account Deficit, 2002-06\n - Emerging Europe: Change in Current Account Balance and Real Effective Exchange Rate Appreciation, 2003-07\n - Emerging Europe: Percentage Change in Export Market Shares in the World Economy, 2002-06\n - Current Account Model Predictions and Actual Balances in Selected New EU Members\n - Emerging Europe: Ratio of Short-Term Debt (Remaining Maturity) to Foreign Exchange Reserves, 2007\n - Emerging Europe: Lending Interest Rate-Taylor Rule Interest Rate, 2003-07\n - Emerging Europe: Monetary Conditions Index, 2007\n - Change in Actual and Structural Fiscal Balances, 2003-07" }, { "heading": "Ancillary information", "content": "- Publication and access items shown on the page:\n - Press Release: Regional Economic Outlook: Europe — April 21, 2008\n - World Economic and Financial Surveys\n - Ordering Information\n - Full text and Summaries in multiple languages: English, русский, Česky, Deutsch, Español, Français, Türkçe, Український\n - View the full text (use the free Adobe Acrobat Reader).\n - Email notification sign-up for new series and/or country items\n\nRegional Economic Outlook: Europe -- Reassessing Risks, April 2008 -- Table of Contents\n\n---\n\n Content in this bundle\n\n- Perspectives économiques régionales : EUROPE — Réévaluation des risques — Avril 2008\n - Perspectives économiques régionales : EUROPE — Réévaluation des risques — Avril 2008 (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - Perspectives économiques régionales : EUROPE — Réévaluation des risques — Avril 2008 (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Regionaler Wirtschaftsausblick -- EUROPA: Neubewertung der Risiken -- Zusammenfassung; April 2008.\n - Regionaler Wirtschaftsausblick -- EUROPA: Neubewertung der Risiken -- Zusammenfassung; April 2008. (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - Regionaler Wirtschaftsausblick -- EUROPA: Neubewertung der Risiken -- Zusammenfassung; April 2008. (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Regionální ekonomický výhled -- EVROPA: Přehodnocení rizik -- Shrnutí; duben 2008.\n - Regionální ekonomický výhled -- EVROPA: Přehodnocení rizik -- Shrnutí; duben 2008. (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - Regionální ekonomický výhled -- EVROPA: Přehodnocení rizik -- Shrnutí; duben 2008. (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Regional Economic Outlook -- Europe: Reassessing Risks -- Executive Summary; April 2008\n - Regional Economic Outlook -- Europe: Reassessing Risks -- Executive Summary; April 2008 (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - Regional Economic Outlook -- Europe: Reassessing Risks -- Executive Summary; April 2008 (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Regional Economic Outlook -- Europe: Reassessing Risks; April 2008.\n - Regional Economic Outlook -- Europe: Reassessing Risks; April 2008. (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - Regional Economic Outlook -- Europe: Reassessing Risks; April 2008. (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Bölgesel Ekonomik Bakış -- AVRUPA : Risklerin Yeniden Değerlendirilmesi -- İdari Özet; Nisan 2008.\n - Bölgesel Ekonomik Bakış -- AVRUPA : Risklerin Yeniden Değerlendirilmesi -- İdari Özet; Nisan 2008. (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - Bölgesel Ekonomik Bakış -- AVRUPA : Risklerin Yeniden Değerlendirilmesi -- İdari Özet; Nisan 2008. (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Перспективи розвитку регіональної економіки\n - Перспективи розвитку регіональної економіки (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - Перспективи розвитку регіональної економіки (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- ereo0408exrpdf\n - ereo0408exrpdf (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - ereo0408exrpdf (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Перспективы развития региональной экономики -- Европа: Переоценка рисков; Квітень 2008 року.\n - Перспективы развития региональной экономики -- Европа: Переоценка рисков; Квітень 2008 року. (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Перспективы развития региональной экономики -- Европа: Переоценка рисков; Квітень 2008 року.\n - Перспективы развития региональной экономики -- Европа: Переоценка рисков; Квітень 2008 року. (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Perspectivas económicas regionales: EUROPA — Revaluar los riesgos — Abril de 2008\n - Perspectivas económicas regionales: EUROPA — Revaluar los riesgos — Abril de 2008 (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - Perspectivas económicas regionales: EUROPA — Revaluar los riesgos — Abril de 2008 (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n\n---\n\n References\n\n- Press Release\n- Regional Economic Outlooks\n- IMF Regional Reports\n- World Economic Outlook:\n- Sign up to receive free e-mail notices when new series and/or country items are posted on the IMF website.\n- Modify your profile\n- Ordering Information\n- Adobe Acrobat Reader\n- https://www.imf.org/en/home\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/reo/eu/issues/2017/01/07/regional-economic-outlook-europe7" } ], "bullets": [ "[Markdown version](/en/publications/reo/eu/issues/2017/01/07/regional-economic-outlook-europe7/index.md)", "[Structured JSON version](/en/publications/reo/eu/issues/2017/01/07/regional-economic-outlook-europe7/index.json)", "[Bundle manifest](/en/publications/reo/eu/issues/2017/01/07/regional-economic-outlook-europe7/bundle-manifest.json)", "Published: April 18, 2008", "Series: Europe", "Europe is facing slower growth as a result of protracted financial turbulence and spillovers from the U.S.", "Inflation has risen sharply.", "Policymakers in advanced economies will have to continue to support financial markets and balance risks to real activity with the need to anchor inflation.", "Emerging Europe is well placed to continue to grow, albeit at a slower pace, amid concerns about overheating and external imbalances in several countries.", "Sound macroeconomic policies and structural reforms will be necessary to ensure a soft landing in these countries and smooth convergence throughout the region.", "Major subsections:", "Major subsections:", "Included box: Financial Turbulence: Policy Lessons", "Major subsections:", "Included boxes:", "Dedicated chapters and analyses:", "Analytical chapters and appendices:", "Key tables listed:", "Selected figures and time spans (as listed):", "Publication and access items shown on the page:", "**Perspectives économiques régionales : EUROPE — Réévaluation des risques — Avril 2008**", "**Regionaler Wirtschaftsausblick -- EUROPA: Neubewertung der Risiken -- Zusammenfassung; April 2008.**", "**Regionální ekonomický výhled -- EVROPA: Přehodnocení rizik -- Shrnutí; duben 2008.**", "**Regional Economic Outlook -- Europe: Reassessing Risks -- Executive Summary; April 2008**", "**Regional Economic Outlook -- Europe: Reassessing Risks; April 2008.**", "**Bölgesel Ekonomik Bakış -- AVRUPA : Risklerin Yeniden Değerlendirilmesi -- İdari Özet; Nisan 2008.**", "**Перспективи розвитку регіональної економіки**", "**_ereo0408exrpdf**", "**Перспективы развития региональной экономики -- Европа: Переоценка рисков; Квітень 2008 року.**", "**Перспективы развития региональной экономики -- Европа: Переоценка рисков; Квітень 2008 року.**", "**Perspectivas económicas regionales: EUROPA — Revaluar los riesgos — Abril de 2008**", "[Press Release](https://www.imf.org/external/np/sec/pr/2008/pr0889.htm)", "[Regional Economic Outlooks](https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/reo/reorepts.aspx)", "[IMF Regional Reports](https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/region.asp)", "[World Economic Outlook:](https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2008/01/index.htm)", "[Sign up to receive free e-mail notices when new series and/or country items are posted on the IMF website.](https://www.imf.org/en/email-subscription/index)", "[Modify your profile](https://www.imf.org/en/email-subscription/login)", "[Ordering Information](https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.cfm?sk=21658.0)", "[Adobe Acrobat Reader](https://www.imf.org/adobe)", "[https://www.imf.org/en/home](https://www.imf.org/en/home)" ], "related": [ { "title": "Perspectives économiques régionales : EUROPE — Réévaluation des risques — Avril 2008", "role": "document", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/websites/imf/imported-flagship-issues/external/french/pubs/ft/reo/2008/eur/_ereo0408exfpdf.pdf", "summary": { "path": "/-/media/websites/imf/imported-flagship-issues/external/french/pubs/ft/reo/2008/eur/_ereo0408exfpdf.pdf.md", "mime": "text/markdown" }, "binary": { "path": "/-/media/websites/imf/imported-flagship-issues/external/french/pubs/ft/reo/2008/eur/_ereo0408exfpdf.pdf", "mime": "application/pdf" } }, { "title": "Regionaler Wirtschaftsausblick -- EUROPA: Neubewertung der Risiken -- Zusammenfassung; 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