{ "title": "Middle East and Central Asia", "publication": "Middle East and Central Asia, October 31, 2016", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/en/publications/reo/meca/issues/2016/10/mreo1016", "canonical": "https://www.imf.org/en/publications/reo/meca/issues/2016/10/mreo1016", "overlayPath": "/en/publications/reo/meca/issues/2016/10/mreo1016/index.md", "summary": "Context: Continuing exceptionally challenging environment due to low oil prices, deepening conflicts, and spillovers from slowdowns in Russia and China.", "sections": [ { "heading": "MENAP: Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan — Oil Exporters (Chapter 1)", "content": "- Context: Continuing exceptionally challenging environment due to low oil prices, deepening conflicts, and spillovers from slowdowns in Russia and China.\n- Key developments:\n - Moderate oil price recovery.\n - Progress in fiscal consolidation in many countries, but sustained efforts required over the medium term to place public finances on a sound footing.\n - Plans announced to diversify economies away from oil and create jobs for rapidly-growing populations; transformation will take time and requires careful, steady implementation.\n - Financial stability risks remain, notably tightening liquidity and risk of deteriorating asset quality.\n- Policy implications:\n - Continued fiscal consolidation to restore fiscal buffers.\n - Vigilance on financial stability and liquidity management while pursuing diversification." }, { "heading": "MENAP: Oil Importers — Growth and Inclusiveness Challenges (Chapter 2)", "content": "- Macro overview:\n - Macroeconomic stabilization advancing following recent energy subsidy reforms and low oil prices.\n - Growth remains weak and fragile amid regional conflicts, structural impediments, and subdued external demand.\n - Over the medium term, growth is set to remain too low to address persistently high unemployment and low economic inclusiveness.\n- Key constraints:\n - Limited fiscal space due to high debt service costs and large wage bills.\n - In some cases, external vulnerabilities remain high.\n- Reform priorities:\n - Deeper structural reforms to lower business costs, improve access to finance and export markets, and enhance worker talent.\n - Greater exchange rate flexibility in some cases to improve competitiveness.\n- Highlights:\n - Subdued economic activity.\n - Lackluster medium-term prospects.\n - Rising downside risks.\n - Need for implementing fiscal, monetary, and structural reforms.\n - Role for international support." }, { "heading": "Caucasus and Central Asia (CCA) — Coping with External Shocks (Chapter 3)", "content": "- Recent developments:\n - Fiscal accommodation and exchange rate adjustment have helped mitigate immediate impacts from commodity price slumps and weaker growth in key trading partners.\n - Growth is starting to recover, but the region faces increased fiscal, external, and financial sector vulnerabilities and less policy space.\n- Key risks and needs:\n - Need to formulate credible multiyear fiscal plans.\n - Modernization of monetary policy frameworks.\n - Strengthening of financial supervision.\n - Structural transformation to diversify away from commodities and reduce reliance on remittances.\n- Summary points:\n - Weak and fragile recovery.\n - Challenging yet critical exchange rate adjustment.\n - Easing inflationary pressures.\n - Financial vulnerabilities still rising.\n - Declining space for further fiscal easing.\n - Exports supporting external positions.\n - Multifarious downside risks." }, { "heading": "How Will China’s Rebalancing Affect the Middle East and Central Asia? (Chapter 4)", "content": "- Channels of impact:\n - Weaker commodity prices, slower global growth, and higher global risk aversion.\n- Magnitude of impact:\n - Overall impact on MENAP and CCA likely to be small — between 0.01 percent and 0.1 percent for each 1 percentage point slowdown in China’s growth.\n - Within regions, commodity exporters would be impacted the most.\n- Opportunities:\n - China’s One Belt One Road (OBOR) investments, mainly in infrastructure, could help increase growth in the CCA and Pakistan even if investment is less than originally planned.\n - Potential to increase consumption-oriented exports (tourism, agricultural products, clothing) and create jobs.\n- Policy recommendations:\n - Step up structural reforms to improve the business environment and boost productivity and competitiveness to reap benefits from China’s rebalancing.\n\nOctober 2016 — Middle East and Central Asia regional overview (IMF).\n\n---\n\n Content in this bundle\n\n- IMF Regional Economic Outlook, Middle East and Central Asia, October 2016\n - IMF Regional Economic Outlook, Middle East and Central Asia, October 2016 (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - IMF Regional Economic Outlook, Middle East and Central Asia, October 2016 (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Acknowledgments: Regional Economic Outlook: Middle East and Central Asia; October 2016\n - Acknowledgments: Regional Economic Outlook: Middle East and Central Asia; October 2016 (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - Acknowledgments: Regional Economic Outlook: Middle East and Central Asia; October 2016 (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Assumptions and Conventions: Regional Economic Outlook: Middle East and Central Asia; October 2016\n - Assumptions and Conventions: Regional Economic Outlook: Middle East and Central Asia; October 2016 (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - Assumptions and Conventions: Regional Economic Outlook: Middle East and Central Asia; October 2016 (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Regional Economic Outlook: Middle East and Central Asia; CCA Region Highlights -- October 2016\n - Regional Economic Outlook: Middle East and Central Asia; CCA Region Highlights -- October 2016 (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - Regional Economic Outlook: Middle East and Central Asia; CCA Region Highlights -- October 2016 (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Country Groupings: Regional Economic Outlook: Middle East and Central Asia; October 2016\n - Country Groupings: Regional Economic Outlook: Middle East and Central Asia; October 2016 (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - Country Groupings: Regional Economic Outlook: Middle East and Central Asia; October 2016 (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Statistical Appendix -- Regional Economic Outlook: Middle East and Central Asia; April 2016\n - Statistical Appendix -- Regional Economic Outlook: Middle East and Central Asia; April 2016 (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - Statistical Appendix -- Regional Economic Outlook: Middle East and Central Asia; April 2016 (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Mreo1016ch1\n - Mreo1016ch1 (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - Mreo1016ch1 (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Regional Economic Outlook\n - Regional Economic Outlook (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - Regional Economic Outlook (XLSX){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/vnd.openxmlformats-officedocument.spreadsheetml.sheet\"}\n- World Economic Outlook : Regional Economic Outlook: Middle East and Central Asia; October 2016\n - World Economic Outlook : Regional Economic Outlook: Middle East and Central Asia; October 2016 (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - World Economic Outlook : Regional Economic Outlook: Middle East and Central Asia; October 2016 (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Mreo1016ch2\n - Mreo1016ch2 (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - Mreo1016ch2 (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Mreo1016ch3\n - Mreo1016ch3 (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - Mreo1016ch3 (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- mreo1016ch4\n - mreo1016ch4 (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - mreo1016ch4 (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Mreo1016ch5\n - Mreo1016ch5 (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - Mreo1016ch5 (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n\n---\n\n References\n\n- Sign up to receive free e-mail notices when new series and/or country items are posted on the IMF website.\n- Modify your profile\n- Chart\n- Chart\n- Video\n- Chart\n- Chart\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/reo/meca/issues/2016/10/mreo1016" } ], "bullets": [ "[Markdown version](/en/publications/reo/meca/issues/2016/10/mreo1016/index.md)", "[Structured JSON version](/en/publications/reo/meca/issues/2016/10/mreo1016/index.json)", "[Bundle manifest](/en/publications/reo/meca/issues/2016/10/mreo1016/bundle-manifest.json)", "Published: October 31, 2016", "Series: Middle East and Central Asia", "Context: Continuing exceptionally challenging environment due to low oil prices, deepening conflicts, and spillovers from slowdowns in Russia and China.", "Key developments:", "Policy implications:", "Macro overview:", "Key constraints:", "Reform priorities:", "Highlights:", "Recent developments:", "Key risks and needs:", "Summary points:", "Channels of impact:", "Magnitude of impact:", "Opportunities:", "Policy recommendations:", "**IMF Regional Economic Outlook, Middle East and Central Asia, October 2016**", "**Acknowledgments: Regional Economic Outlook: Middle East and Central Asia; October 2016**", "**Assumptions and Conventions: Regional Economic Outlook: Middle East and Central Asia; October 2016**", "**Regional Economic Outlook: Middle East and Central Asia; CCA Region Highlights -- October 2016**", "**Country Groupings: Regional Economic Outlook: Middle East and Central Asia; October 2016**", "**Statistical Appendix -- Regional Economic Outlook: Middle East and Central Asia; April 2016**", "**Mreo1016ch1**", "**Regional Economic Outlook**", "**World Economic Outlook : Regional Economic Outlook: Middle East and Central Asia; October 2016**", "**Mreo1016ch2**", "**Mreo1016ch3**", "**mreo1016ch4**", "**Mreo1016ch5**", "[Sign up to receive free e-mail notices when new series and/or country items are posted on the IMF website.](https://www.imf.org/en/email-subscription/index)", "[Modify your profile](https://www.imf.org/en/email-subscription/login)", "[Chart](https://www.imf.org/en/about)", "[Chart](https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/reo/2016/mcd/mreo1016chart2.htm)", "[Video](https://www.imf.org/external/mmedia/view.aspx?vid=5171895696001)", "[Chart](https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/reo/2016/mcd/mreo1016chart3.htm)", "[Chart](https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/reo/2016/mcd/mreo1016chart4.htm)" ], "related": [ { "title": "IMF Regional Economic Outlook, Middle East and Central Asia, October 2016", "role": "document", "sourceUrl": "http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/reo/2016/mcd/eng/pdf/mreo1016.pdf", "summary": { "path": "/external/pubs/ft/reo/2016/mcd/eng/pdf/mreo1016.pdf.md", "mime": "text/markdown" }, "binary": { "path": "/external/pubs/ft/reo/2016/mcd/eng/pdf/mreo1016.pdf", "mime": "application/pdf" } }, { "title": "Acknowledgments: Regional Economic Outlook: Middle East and Central Asia; 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