## Middle East and Central Asia _Middle East and Central Asia, October 31, 2016_ ## Source details **Canonical URL:** [Middle East and Central Asia](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/reo/meca/issues/2016/10/mreo1016) ## Other formats - [Markdown version](/en/publications/reo/meca/issues/2016/10/mreo1016/index.md) - [Structured JSON version](/en/publications/reo/meca/issues/2016/10/mreo1016/index.json) - [Bundle manifest](/en/publications/reo/meca/issues/2016/10/mreo1016/bundle-manifest.json) ## Bibliographic details - Published: October 31, 2016 - Series: Middle East and Central Asia --- ### MENAP: Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan — Oil Exporters (Chapter 1) - Context: Continuing exceptionally challenging environment due to low oil prices, deepening conflicts, and spillovers from slowdowns in Russia and China. - Key developments: - Moderate oil price recovery. - Progress in fiscal consolidation in many countries, but sustained efforts required over the medium term to place public finances on a sound footing. - Plans announced to diversify economies away from oil and create jobs for rapidly-growing populations; transformation will take time and requires careful, steady implementation. - Financial stability risks remain, notably tightening liquidity and risk of deteriorating asset quality. - Policy implications: - Continued fiscal consolidation to restore fiscal buffers. - Vigilance on financial stability and liquidity management while pursuing diversification. ### MENAP: Oil Importers — Growth and Inclusiveness Challenges (Chapter 2) - Macro overview: - Macroeconomic stabilization advancing following recent energy subsidy reforms and low oil prices. - Growth remains weak and fragile amid regional conflicts, structural impediments, and subdued external demand. - Over the medium term, growth is set to remain too low to address persistently high unemployment and low economic inclusiveness. - Key constraints: - Limited fiscal space due to high debt service costs and large wage bills. - In some cases, external vulnerabilities remain high. - Reform priorities: - Deeper structural reforms to lower business costs, improve access to finance and export markets, and enhance worker talent. - Greater exchange rate flexibility in some cases to improve competitiveness. - Highlights: - Subdued economic activity. - Lackluster medium-term prospects. - Rising downside risks. - Need for implementing fiscal, monetary, and structural reforms. - Role for international support. ### Caucasus and Central Asia (CCA) — Coping with External Shocks (Chapter 3) - Recent developments: - Fiscal accommodation and exchange rate adjustment have helped mitigate immediate impacts from commodity price slumps and weaker growth in key trading partners. - Growth is starting to recover, but the region faces increased fiscal, external, and financial sector vulnerabilities and less policy space. - Key risks and needs: - Need to formulate credible multiyear fiscal plans. - Modernization of monetary policy frameworks. - Strengthening of financial supervision. - Structural transformation to diversify away from commodities and reduce reliance on remittances. - Summary points: - Weak and fragile recovery. - Challenging yet critical exchange rate adjustment. - Easing inflationary pressures. - Financial vulnerabilities still rising. - Declining space for further fiscal easing. - Exports supporting external positions. - Multifarious downside risks. ### How Will China’s Rebalancing Affect the Middle East and Central Asia? (Chapter 4) - Channels of impact: - Weaker commodity prices, slower global growth, and higher global risk aversion. - Magnitude of impact: - Overall impact on MENAP and CCA likely to be small — between 0.01 percent and 0.1 percent for each 1 percentage point slowdown in China’s growth. - Within regions, commodity exporters would be impacted the most. - Opportunities: - China’s One Belt One Road (OBOR) investments, mainly in infrastructure, could help increase growth in the CCA and Pakistan even if investment is less than originally planned. - Potential to increase consumption-oriented exports (tourism, agricultural products, clothing) and create jobs. - Policy recommendations: - Step up structural reforms to improve the business environment and boost productivity and competitiveness to reap benefits from China’s rebalancing. *October 2016 — Middle East and Central Asia regional overview (IMF).* --- ## Content in this bundle - **IMF Regional Economic Outlook, Middle East and Central Asia, October 2016** - [IMF Regional Economic Outlook, Middle East and Central Asia, October 2016 (Markdown version)](/external/pubs/ft/reo/2016/mcd/eng/pdf/mreo1016.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"} - [IMF Regional Economic Outlook, Middle East and Central Asia, October 2016 (PDF)](/external/pubs/ft/reo/2016/mcd/eng/pdf/mreo1016.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"} - **Acknowledgments: Regional Economic Outlook: Middle East and Central Asia; October 2016** - [Acknowledgments: Regional Economic Outlook: Middle East and Central Asia; October 2016 (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/reo/mcd-cca/2016/october/aknow.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"} - [Acknowledgments: Regional Economic Outlook: Middle East and Central Asia; October 2016 (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/reo/mcd-cca/2016/october/aknow.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"} - **Assumptions and Conventions: Regional Economic Outlook: Middle East and Central Asia; October 2016** - [Assumptions and Conventions: Regional Economic Outlook: Middle East and Central Asia; October 2016 (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/reo/mcd-cca/2016/october/assemp.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"} - [Assumptions and Conventions: Regional Economic Outlook: Middle East and Central Asia; October 2016 (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/reo/mcd-cca/2016/october/assemp.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"} - **Regional Economic Outlook: Middle East and Central Asia; CCA Region Highlights -- October 2016** - [Regional Economic Outlook: Middle East and Central Asia; CCA Region Highlights -- October 2016 (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/reo/mcd-cca/2016/october/cca1016hi.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"} - [Regional Economic Outlook: Middle East and Central Asia; CCA Region Highlights -- October 2016 (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/reo/mcd-cca/2016/october/cca1016hi.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"} - **Country Groupings: Regional Economic Outlook: Middle East and Central Asia; October 2016** - [Country Groupings: Regional Economic Outlook: Middle East and Central Asia; October 2016 (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/reo/mcd-cca/2016/october/cgroup.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"} - [Country Groupings: Regional Economic Outlook: Middle East and Central Asia; October 2016 (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/reo/mcd-cca/2016/october/cgroup.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"} - **Statistical Appendix -- Regional Economic Outlook: Middle East and Central Asia; April 2016** - [Statistical Appendix -- Regional Economic Outlook: Middle East and Central Asia; April 2016 (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/reo/mcd-cca/2016/october/mreo0416st.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"} - [Statistical Appendix -- Regional Economic Outlook: Middle East and Central Asia; April 2016 (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/reo/mcd-cca/2016/october/mreo0416st.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"} - **Mreo1016ch1** - [Mreo1016ch1 (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/reo/mcd-cca/2016/october/mreo1016ch1.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"} - [Mreo1016ch1 (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/reo/mcd-cca/2016/october/mreo1016ch1.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"} - **Regional Economic Outlook** - [Regional Economic Outlook (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/reo/mcd-cca/2016/october/mreost1016.xlsx.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"} - [Regional Economic Outlook (XLSX)](/-/media/files/publications/reo/mcd-cca/2016/october/mreost1016.xlsx){rel="external" type="application/vnd.openxmlformats-officedocument.spreadsheetml.sheet"} - **World Economic Outlook : Regional Economic Outlook: Middle East and Central Asia; October 2016** - [World Economic Outlook : Regional Economic Outlook: Middle East and Central Asia; October 2016 (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/reo/mcd-cca/2016/october/weo.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"} - [World Economic Outlook : Regional Economic Outlook: Middle East and Central Asia; October 2016 (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/reo/mcd-cca/2016/october/weo.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"} - **Mreo1016ch2** - [Mreo1016ch2 (Markdown version)](/external/pubs/ft/reo/2016/mcd/eng/pdf/mreo1016ch2.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"} - [Mreo1016ch2 (PDF)](/external/pubs/ft/reo/2016/mcd/eng/pdf/mreo1016ch2.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"} - **Mreo1016ch3** - [Mreo1016ch3 (Markdown version)](/external/pubs/ft/reo/2016/mcd/eng/pdf/mreo1016ch3.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"} - [Mreo1016ch3 (PDF)](/external/pubs/ft/reo/2016/mcd/eng/pdf/mreo1016ch3.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"} - **mreo1016ch4** - [mreo1016ch4 (Markdown version)](/external/pubs/ft/reo/2016/mcd/eng/pdf/mreo1016ch4.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"} - [mreo1016ch4 (PDF)](/external/pubs/ft/reo/2016/mcd/eng/pdf/mreo1016ch4.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"} - **Mreo1016ch5** - [Mreo1016ch5 (Markdown version)](/external/pubs/ft/reo/2016/mcd/eng/pdf/mreo1016ch5.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"} - [Mreo1016ch5 (PDF)](/external/pubs/ft/reo/2016/mcd/eng/pdf/mreo1016ch5.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"} --- ## References - [Sign up to receive free e-mail notices when new series and/or country items are posted on the IMF website.](https://www.imf.org/en/email-subscription/index) - [Modify your profile](https://www.imf.org/en/email-subscription/login) - [Chart](https://www.imf.org/en/about) - [Chart](https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/reo/2016/mcd/mreo1016chart2.htm) - [Video](https://www.imf.org/external/mmedia/view.aspx?vid=5171895696001) - [Chart](https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/reo/2016/mcd/mreo1016chart3.htm) - [Chart](https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/reo/2016/mcd/mreo1016chart4.htm) _Source: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/reo/meca/issues/2016/10/mreo1016_