{ "title": "Regional Economic Outlook Middle East and Central Asia; May 2015 Update", "publication": "Middle East and Central Asia, May 5, 2015", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/en/publications/reo/meca/issues/2017/01/07/middle-east-and-central-asia", "canonical": "https://www.imf.org/en/publications/reo/meca/issues/2017/01/07/middle-east-and-central-asia", "overlayPath": "/en/publications/reo/meca/issues/2017/01/07/middle-east-and-central-asia/index.md", "summary": "The Regional Economic Outlook: Middle East and Central Asia (REO) is prepared by the IMF's Middle East and Central Asia Department (MCD).", "sections": [ { "heading": "Overview", "content": "- Prepared by the IMF's Middle East and Central Asia Department (MCD) covering 31 member countries; analysis and projections draw primarily on information gathered by MCD staff through consultations with member countries.\n- Covers Middle East and Central Asia (MENAP and CCA) regions with detailed treatment of oil exporters and importers, spillovers from Russia, and impacts of oil price declines." }, { "heading": "MENAP — Key Findings", "content": "- Regional outlook: A modest recovery is expected to continue despite a slump in oil prices, regional conflicts, and post-Arab Spring transition uncertainties.\n- Growth projections (Table 1):\n - MENAP Oil Exporters: 2014 — 2.4; 2015 — 3.4\n - GCC: 2014 — 3.6; 2015 — 1.2\n - Non-GCC Oil Importers: 2014 — 1.0; 2015 — 4.0\n - MENAP Oil Importers aggregate growth: 2014 — 3.0; 2015 — 4.0\n- Inflation and unemployment:\n - Inflation in oil exporters projected to remain broadly unchanged in 2015; GCC inflation expected to decline by ½ pp to just above 2 percent.\n - Unemployment across the region remains high, especially among youth; growth rates are insufficient to materially reduce unemployment." }, { "heading": "MENAP Oil-Exporting Countries — Findings and Projections", "content": "- Oil price trajectory and assumptions:\n - Between July 2014 and April 2015, oil prices dropped by 50 percent.\n - Expected to be $58 per barrel in 2015 and $74 per barrel by 2020.\n - Market expectations revised down by almost 20 percent since last October (Figure 1 referenced).\n- Growth and fiscal impact:\n - Growth in MENAP oil exporters: 2014 — 2.4 percent; projected unchanged in 2015; projected rise to 3½ percent in 2016.\n - GCC 2015 growth forecast: 3.4 percent (revised downward by 1 pp since last October); Saudi Arabia 2015 forecast: 3 percent (down 1½ pp, half due to rebasing).\n - Outside the GCC 2015 growth revised down by 2 pp to just above 1 percent.\n- External and fiscal balances:\n - Fall in anticipated oil export earnings in 2015: $287 billion (21 percent of GDP) in the GCC; $90 billion (11 percent of GDP) in non-GCC countries.\n - MENAP oil exporters' current account projected to turn into a deficit of $22 billion (1 percent of GDP) in 2015.\n - GCC combined budget surplus for 2014: $76 billion (4½ percent of GDP) expected to turn into deficit of $113 billion (8 percent of GDP) in 2015; narrow to 1 percent of GDP over medium term.\n - Non-GCC fiscal deficit 2014: 4¾ percent of GDP, expected to widen to 9 percent of GDP in 2015, stabilizing at 2½ percent of GDP in medium term.\n- Fiscal breakeven and buffers:\n - Most countries cannot balance budgets when oil prices approach $60 per barrel (Figure 4 referenced).\n - Non-oil fiscal balances expected to improve by 2½ pp of non-oil GDP in 2015 in several countries (Kuwait, Oman, Iraq, Libya).\n - Outside GCC, non-oil balances expected to improve by 2¾ pp of non-oil GDP in 2015, a revision of 1½ pp since last October.\n- Announced fiscal measures (as of end-March 2015) — selected items:\n - Bahrain: increase in natural gas prices for industrial users (+11%) and employee medical insurance fees.\n - Kuwait: 2015/16 budget projects an 18% cut in public spending; capital spending shielded.\n - Oman: 2015 budget includes reduction in defense spending; capital spending shielded.\n - Qatar: No major announced policy response; restraining current expenditures.\n - Saudi Arabia: large fiscal spending package worth around 4 percent of GDP announced in Feb 2015.\n - UAE: No major announced policy response; gradual fiscal consolidation continued.\n - Algeria: public sector hiring freeze announced.\n - Iran: 2015/16 budget aims to limit drop in oil revenue by (i) increasing share of oil exports that goes to the budget, (ii) depreciating the official exchange rate (by 10%).\n - Iraq: 2015 budget includes increases in non-oil taxes and aims to contain spending.\n - Libya: No major policy response announced.\n - Yemen: Large decline in energy subsidies planned for 2015H1; Increase in Social Welfare Fund transfers to poor by 50% (Dec 2014).\n- Opportunities for fiscal reform:\n - Growth-friendly consolidation: limit spending overruns, slow public wage bill growth, ensure productivity of capital spending.\n - Reduce generalized energy subsidies and increase targeted social subsidies.\n - Improve efficiency, oversight, and transparency of capital expenditure; improve tax administration and non-oil revenue collection.\n- Financial sector:\n - GCC banks expected to remain sound due to strong initial positions and continuing government infrastructure investment; liquidity could tighten and NPLs could rise.\n - Non-GCC banks more vulnerable: Iran exhibiting systemwide stress and high NPLs; Yemen large government exposures; Iraq pressure on weak banking system.\n- Diversification imperative:\n - Need to move away from oil-driven growth models relying on subsidies and public employment.\n - Policy focus: incentives for private entrepreneurship in tradable goods, better education–skills match, increased private employment of nationals." }, { "heading": "MENAP Oil-Importing Countries — Findings and Projections", "content": "- Growth recovery:\n - Economic activity slow after 2011 downturn; 2014 growth: 3 percent; projected to strengthen by 1 pp to 4 percent in 2015.\n - Support from gradual euro area recovery, improved domestic confidence, and more accommodative fiscal and monetary policies.\n - Lower oil prices help mainly via improved fiscal/quasi-fiscal positions and external vulnerabilities rather than direct growth.\n- Inflation and external effects:\n - Inflation set to decline sharply in 2015 by 2½ pp to 7 percent, largely due to lower food prices and negative output gaps.\n - Net external gains from lower oil prices estimated at $16 billion (1½ percent of GDP) for 2015.\n - International reserves expected to improve by ¾ months of imports in 2015.\n - Public debt projections for 2015 lowered by 2 pp of GDP from last October REO to 75 percent of GDP.\n- Fiscal consolidation and revenue measures:\n - Fiscal deficits declined by 1½ percentage points to just below 8 percent of GDP in 2014.\n - Continued consolidation in 2015: fiscal deficits expected to decline by another 1 percentage point of GDP to 7 percent of GDP.\n - Emphasis on revenue measures: eliminating exemptions, addressing loopholes, strengthening administration, introducing income tax reforms (Jordan) and a VAT (Egypt).\n - Some countries (Lebanon, Pakistan) raised taxes on fuel products.\n - Savings from subsidy reforms estimated at ½ percent of GDP in 2015.\n- Banking sector:\n - Banks generally well-capitalized, profitable, and liquid; high concentration of bank loans to government and state-owned enterprises presents stability risks; high NPLs broadly stabilized in many cases.\n- Policy guidance:\n - Use gains from lower oil prices to strengthen buffers and reduce public debt; remove inefficient energy subsidies and introduce automatic fuel price adjustment mechanisms where appropriate.\n - In countries with strong buffers, use windfalls and subsidy-savings to support growth-enhancing spending, avoiding irreversible spending commitments such as sustained increases in public sector wages.\n - Rising international reserves and declining inflation create favorable conditions for increasing exchange rate flexibility and easing monetary policy, but prudence needed when inflation remains elevated." }, { "heading": "Caucasus and Central Asia (CCA) — Key Findings", "content": "- Growth outlook and shocks:\n - Economic activity in CCA decelerated in 2014: growth declined by 1¼ pp to 5¼ percent.\n - With sharp oil price declines and expected contraction of Russia’s economy in 2015, growth projected to decline by another 2 pp to 3¼ percent in 2015 (a downward revision of 2½ pp since October 2014 REO).\n - CCA oil exporters: growth projected to decline by 2 pp to 3½ percent in 2015.\n - CCA oil importers: growth projected to slow by 3 pp to 1½ percent in 2015.\n- Inflation and exchange rates:\n - Inflation expected to rise by 1 pp to 7 percent in 2015 due to currency depreciation and pass-through.\n - Some countries devalued currencies in early 2015 (Turkmenistan, Azerbaijan); Armenia, Georgia, Tajikistan, and Kyrgyz Republic allowed varying depreciation.\n - Kyrgyz Republic and Tajikistan expected to reach double-digit inflation due to strong pass-through and credit growth.\n- External and fiscal positions:\n - CCA oil exporters’ current account expected to turn from a surplus of 3 percent of GDP in 2014 to a deficit of 2½ percent in 2015.\n - CCA oil importers’ current account deficit expected to worsen slightly to 11 percent in 2015.\n - Some oil exporters (Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan) to use large buffers for near-term countercyclical stimulus; Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan plan sizable consolidations in 2015 and medium term.\n - Fiscal breakeven concerns: exporters such as Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan cannot cover government spending at oil prices below $58.\n- Financial sector stress and policy response:\n - Currency depreciation and dollarization increase credit and solvency risks; nonperforming loans high or rising (25 percent in Kazakhstan, 27 percent in Tajikistan).\n - Supervisors urged to intensify surveillance, avoid forbearance and evergreening, require adequate classification and provisioning, limit liquidity support to solvent banks, and require shareholder recapitalization where needed.\n- Structural reforms:\n - Need for market deepening, governance improvements, infrastructure closing, business regulation reforms, trade integration, labor market reforms, and increased domestic competition (e.g., energy sector in Armenia)." }, { "heading": "Projections and Assumptions (as stated)", "content": "- Oil price assumptions:\n - Price of oil assumed to average US$58.1 a barrel in 2015 and US$65.7 a barrel in 2016 (simple average of U.K. Brent, Dubai, and West Texas Intermediate).\n- LIBOR assumptions:\n - Six-month LIBOR on U.S. dollar deposits assumed to average 0.7 percent in 2015 and 1.9 percent in 2016.\n- Projections are working hypotheses based on data through mid-March 2015; 2015 and 2016 data are projections.\n- Somalia excluded from regional aggregates due to lack of reliable data; Syria excluded for 2011 onward." }, { "heading": "Policy Recommendations and Scenarios", "content": "- Fiscal policy:\n - Where buffers and financing allow, use temporary fiscal easing to respond to weakening demand and declining remittances.\n - Over the medium term, prioritize fiscal consolidation to rebuild depleted buffers and adjust spending to the new context.\n - Implement growth-friendly consolidation: limit current spending overruns, slow public wage growth, prioritize and increase oversight of capital spending.\n - Reduce generalized energy subsidies and increase targeted social assistance; implement automatic fuel price adjustment mechanisms where appropriate.\n - Improve tax administration and broaden non-oil revenue bases.\n- Monetary and exchange rate policy:\n - Greater exchange rate flexibility where needed to ease reserve pressures and retain competitiveness.\n - Monetary tightening may be necessary where inflation expectations risk unanchoring; in regions with rising reserves and lower inflation, easing may support recovery but exercise prudence.\n - In the CCA, tighten monetary policy where inflation elevated; improve liquidity management and use macroprudential tools to curb excessive credit growth.\n - Medium-term focus on reducing dollarization via credible monetary/exchange frameworks and deeper domestic financial markets.\n- Financial sector measures:\n - Intensify supervision, require appropriate NPL recognition and provisioning, limit liquidity support to solvent banks, and strengthen crisis management frameworks.\n - Avoid forbearance and evergreening; require shareholder capital contributions for undercapitalized banks.\n- Structural reforms and diversification:\n - Prioritize deep structural reforms to improve the business climate, governance, and competitiveness.\n - Encourage private-sector-driven diversification, incentives for tradable goods sectors, skills development aligned with private demand, and increased private employment of nationals." }, { "heading": "Selected Regional Statistics and Indicators (preserve numeric values as presented)", "content": "- Oil price path in baseline: $58 per barrel in 2015; $74 per barrel by 2020.\n- Fall in anticipated oil export earnings in 2015:\n - GCC: $287 billion (21 percent of GDP).\n - Non-GCC: $90 billion (11 percent of GDP).\n- MENAP oil exporters current account: deficit of $22 billion (1 percent of GDP) in 2015.\n- GCC combined budget: 2014 surplus $76 billion (4½ percent of GDP) → 2015 deficit $113 billion (8 percent of GDP).\n- Non-GCC fiscal deficit: 2014 — 4¾ percent of GDP → 2015 — 9 percent of GDP.\n- MENAP oil exporters growth: 2014 — 2.4 percent; 2015 — 3.4 percent.\n- MENAP oil importers growth: 2014 — 3.0 percent; 2015 — 4.0 percent.\n- Inflation in MENAP oil importers: expected decline by 2½ pp to 7 percent in 2015.\n- Net external gains for MENAP oil importers from lower oil prices in 2015: $16 billion (1½ percent of GDP).\n- Public debt projection change: 2015 public debt lowered by 2 pp of GDP from last October REO to 75 percent of GDP.\n- CCA growth: 2014 — 5¼ percent; 2015 projection — 3¼ percent (decline of 2 pp).\n- CCA inflation: expected to rise by 1 pp to 7 percent in 2015.\n- Nonperforming loans highlighted: Kazakhstan — 25 percent; Tajikistan — 27 percent.\n- Fiscal breakeven concern: some CCA exporters cannot cover government spending at oil prices below $58.\n\nRegional Economic Outlook: Middle East and Central Asia; May 2015 Update — IMF Middle East and Central Asia Department (MCD).\n\n---\n\n Content in this bundle\n\n- mreo0515a\n - mreo0515a (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - mreo0515a (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- الإقليمي — آفاق الاقتصاد\n - الإقليمي — آفاق الاقتصاد (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - الإقليمي — آفاق الاقتصاد (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- mreo0515a\n - mreo0515a (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - mreo0515a (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- بعض التحسن في آفاق الاقتصاد في الشرق الأوسط، ولكن المخاطر باقية؛ نشرة الصندوق -- 5 مايو 2015\n - بعض التحسن في آفاق الاقتصاد في الشرق الأوسط، ولكن المخاطر باقية؛ نشرة الصندوق -- 5 مايو 2015 (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - بعض التحسن في آفاق الاقتصاد في الشرق الأوسط، ولكن المخاطر باقية؛ نشرة الصندوق -- 5 مايو 2015 (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- 高加索和中亚地区：石油价格下跌与地区溢出效应给经济前景蒙上阴影 -- 高加索和中亚地区经济展望 -- 2015年5月\n - 高加索和中亚地区：石油价格下跌与地区溢出效应给经济前景蒙上阴影 -- 高加索和中亚地区经济展望 -- 2015年5月 (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - 高加索和中亚地区：石油价格下跌与地区溢出效应给经济前景蒙上阴影 -- 高加索和中亚地区经济展望 -- 2015年5月 (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- mreo0515pf\n - mreo0515pf (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - mreo0515pf (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Moyen-Orient, Afrique du Nord, Afghanistan et Pakistan : pétrole, conflits et transitions\n - Moyen-Orient, Afrique du Nord, Afghanistan et Pakistan : pétrole, conflits et transitions (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - Moyen-Orient, Afrique du Nord, Afghanistan et Pakistan : pétrole, conflits et transitions (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- mreo0515f\n - mreo0515f (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - mreo0515f (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Caucasus and Central Asia\n - Caucasus and Central Asia (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - Caucasus and Central Asia (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Regional Economic Outlook: Caucasus and Central Asia; Presentation, May 2015\n - Regional Economic Outlook: Caucasus and Central Asia; Presentation, May 2015 (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - Regional Economic Outlook: Caucasus and Central Asia; Presentation, May 2015 (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Caucasus and Central Asia: Oil Price Decline and Regional Spillovers Darken the Outlook\n - Caucasus and Central Asia: Oil Price Decline and Regional Spillovers Darken the Outlook (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - Caucasus and Central Asia: Oil Price Decline and Regional Spillovers Darken the Outlook (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Mreo0515\n - Mreo0515 (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - Mreo0515 (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- MENAP Oil-Exporting Countries\n - MENAP Oil-Exporting Countries (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - MENAP Oil-Exporting Countries (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- MENAP Oil-Importing Countries\n - MENAP Oil-Importing Countries (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - MENAP Oil-Importing Countries (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Mreo0515p\n - Mreo0515p (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - Mreo0515p (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- mreo0515pdf\n - mreo0515pdf (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - mreo0515pdf (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- mreo0515st\n - mreo0515st (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - mreo0515st (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- mreo0515stpdf — Section 1–3 Statistical Appendix\n - mreo0515stpdf — Section 1–3 Statistical Appendix (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - mreo0515stpdf — Section 1–3 Statistical Appendix (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Перспективы развития региональной экономики Кавказ и Центральная Азия; Maй 2015 года\n - Перспективы развития региональной экономики Кавказ и Центральная Азия; Maй 2015 года (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - Перспективы развития региональной экономики Кавказ и Центральная Азия; Maй 2015 года (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Кавказ и Центральная Азия — Снижение цен на нефть и региональные вторичные эффекты омрачают прогноз\n - Кавказ и Центральная Азия — Снижение цен на нефть и региональные вторичные эффекты омрачают прогноз (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - Кавказ и Центральная Азия — Снижение цен на нефть и региональные вторичные эффекты омрачают прогноз (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Dataset overview: mreo0515st\n - Dataset overview: mreo0515st (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - Dataset overview: mreo0515st (XLSX){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/vnd.openxmlformats-officedocument.spreadsheetml.sheet\"}\n- World Economic Outlook\n - World Economic Outlook (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - World Economic Outlook (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- 2. Oil Trade Balance, Pure Price Effects\n - 2. Oil Trade Balance, Pure Price Effects (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - 2. Oil Trade Balance, Pure Price Effects (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n\n---\n\n References\n\n- Caucasus, Central Asia Feel Impact of Adverse Shocks\n- Middle East Outlook Sees Modest Improvement, But Risks Remain\n- Middle East & Central Asia Regional Economic Outlooks\n- IMF Data Portal: MCD REO May 2015\n- Disclaimer\n- https://www.imf.org/external/ns/cs.aspx?id=29\n- https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/gfsr/index.htm\n- https://www.imf.org/external/ns/cs.aspx?id=262\n- https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/reo/reorepts.aspx\n- Sign up to receive free e-mail notices when new series and/or country items are posted on the IMF website.\n- Modify your profile\n- January 2015 REO Update\n- 2\n- October 2014 REO.\n- https://www.imf.org/en/home\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/reo/meca/issues/2017/01/07/middle-east-and-central-asia" } ], "bullets": [ "[Markdown version](/en/publications/reo/meca/issues/2017/01/07/middle-east-and-central-asia/index.md)", "[Structured JSON version](/en/publications/reo/meca/issues/2017/01/07/middle-east-and-central-asia/index.json)", "[Bundle manifest](/en/publications/reo/meca/issues/2017/01/07/middle-east-and-central-asia/bundle-manifest.json)", "Published: May 5, 2015", "Series: Middle East and Central Asia", "Prepared by the IMF's Middle East and Central Asia Department (MCD) covering 31 member countries; analysis and projections draw primarily on information gathered by MCD staff through consultations with member countries.", "Covers Middle East and Central Asia (MENAP and CCA) regions with detailed treatment of oil exporters and importers, spillovers from Russia, and impacts of oil price declines.", "Regional outlook: A modest recovery is expected to continue despite a slump in oil prices, regional conflicts, and post-Arab Spring transition uncertainties.", "Growth projections (Table 1):", "Inflation and unemployment:", "Oil price trajectory and assumptions:", "Growth and fiscal impact:", "External and fiscal balances:", "Fiscal breakeven and buffers:", "Announced fiscal measures (as of end-March 2015) — selected items:", "Opportunities for fiscal reform:", "Financial sector:", "Diversification imperative:", "Growth recovery:", "Inflation and external effects:", "Fiscal consolidation and revenue measures:", "Banking sector:", "Policy guidance:", "Growth outlook and shocks:", "Inflation and exchange rates:", "External and fiscal positions:", "Financial sector stress and policy response:", "Structural reforms:", "Oil price assumptions:", "LIBOR assumptions:", "Projections are working hypotheses based on data through mid-March 2015; 2015 and 2016 data are projections.", "Somalia excluded from regional aggregates due to lack of reliable data; Syria excluded for 2011 onward.", "Fiscal policy:", "Monetary and exchange rate policy:", "Financial sector measures:", "Structural reforms and diversification:", "Oil price path in baseline: $58 per barrel in 2015; $74 per barrel by 2020.", "Fall in anticipated oil export earnings in 2015:", "MENAP oil exporters current account: deficit of $22 billion (1 percent of GDP) in 2015.", "GCC combined budget: 2014 surplus $76 billion (4½ percent of GDP) → 2015 deficit $113 billion (8 percent of GDP).", "Non-GCC fiscal deficit: 2014 — 4¾ percent of GDP → 2015 — 9 percent of GDP.", "MENAP oil exporters growth: 2014 — 2.4 percent; 2015 — 3.4 percent.", "MENAP oil importers growth: 2014 — 3.0 percent; 2015 — 4.0 percent.", "Inflation in MENAP oil importers: expected decline by 2½ pp to 7 percent in 2015.", "Net external gains for MENAP oil importers from lower oil prices in 2015: $16 billion (1½ percent of GDP).", "Public debt projection change: 2015 public debt lowered by 2 pp of GDP from last October REO to 75 percent of GDP.", "CCA growth: 2014 — 5¼ percent; 2015 projection — 3¼ percent (decline of 2 pp).", "CCA inflation: expected to rise by 1 pp to 7 percent in 2015.", "Nonperforming loans highlighted: Kazakhstan — 25 percent; Tajikistan — 27 percent.", "Fiscal breakeven concern: some CCA exporters cannot cover government spending at oil prices below $58.", "**_mreo0515a**", "**الإقليمي — آفاق الاقتصاد**", "**mreo0515a**", "**بعض التحسن في آفاق الاقتصاد في الشرق الأوسط، ولكن المخاطر باقية؛ نشرة الصندوق -- 5 مايو 2015**", "**高加索和中亚地区：石油价格下跌与地区溢出效应给经济前景蒙上阴影 -- 高加索和中亚地区经济展望 -- 2015年5月**", "**_mreo0515pf**", "**Moyen-Orient, Afrique du Nord, Afghanistan et Pakistan : pétrole, conflits et transitions**", "**mreo0515f**", "**Caucasus and Central Asia**", "**Regional Economic Outlook: Caucasus and Central Asia; Presentation, May 2015**", "**Caucasus and Central Asia: Oil Price Decline and Regional Spillovers Darken the Outlook**", "**Mreo0515**", "**MENAP Oil-Exporting Countries**", "**MENAP Oil-Importing Countries**", "**Mreo0515p**", "**_mreo0515pdf**", "**_mreo0515st**", "**_mreo0515stpdf — Section 1–3 Statistical Appendix**", "**Перспективы развития региональной экономики Кавказ и Центральная Азия; Maй 2015 года**", "**Кавказ и Центральная Азия — Снижение цен на нефть и региональные вторичные эффекты омрачают прогноз**", "**Dataset overview: mreo0515st**", "**World Economic Outlook**", "**2. Oil Trade Balance, Pure Price Effects**", "[Caucasus, Central Asia Feel Impact of Adverse Shocks](https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/survey/so/2015/car051915a.htm)", "[Middle East Outlook Sees Modest Improvement, But Risks Remain](https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/survey/so/2015/car050515A.htm)", "[Middle East & Central Asia Regional Economic Outlooks](https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/reo/reorepts.aspx?ddlRegions=9&ddlYear=-1)", "[IMF Data Portal: MCD REO May 2015](http://data.imf.org/MCDREO)", "[Disclaimer](https://www.imf.org/external/terms.htm)", "[https://www.imf.org/external/ns/cs.aspx?id=29](https://www.imf.org/external/ns/cs.aspx?id=29)", "[https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/gfsr/index.htm](https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/gfsr/index.htm)", "[https://www.imf.org/external/ns/cs.aspx?id=262](https://www.imf.org/external/ns/cs.aspx?id=262)", "[https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/reo/reorepts.aspx](https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/reo/reorepts.aspx)", "[Sign up to receive free e-mail notices when new series and/or country items are posted on the IMF website.](https://www.imf.org/en/email-subscription/index)", "[Modify your profile](https://www.imf.org/en/email-subscription/login)", "[January 2015 REO Update](https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/reo/2015/mcd/eng/mreo0115.htm)", "[2](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/reo/meca/issues/2017/01/07/c1note2)", "[October 2014 REO.](https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/reo/2014/mcd/eng/mreo1014.htm)" ], "related": [ { "title": "_mreo0515a", "role": "document", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/websites/imf/imported-flagship-issues/external/arabic/pubs/ft/reo/2015/mcd/_mreo0515a.pdf", "summary": { "path": "/-/media/websites/imf/imported-flagship-issues/external/arabic/pubs/ft/reo/2015/mcd/_mreo0515a.pdf.md", "mime": "text/markdown" }, "binary": { "path": "/-/media/websites/imf/imported-flagship-issues/external/arabic/pubs/ft/reo/2015/mcd/_mreo0515a.pdf", "mime": "application/pdf" } }, { "title": "الإقليمي — آفاق الاقتصاد", "role": "document", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/websites/imf/imported-flagship-issues/external/arabic/pubs/ft/reo/2015/mcd/_mreo0515pa.pdf", "summary": { "path": "/-/media/websites/imf/imported-flagship-issues/external/arabic/pubs/ft/reo/2015/mcd/_mreo0515pa.pdf.md", "mime": "text/markdown" }, "binary": { "path": "/-/media/websites/imf/imported-flagship-issues/external/arabic/pubs/ft/reo/2015/mcd/_mreo0515pa.pdf", "mime": "application/pdf" } }, { "title": "mreo0515a", "role": "document", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/websites/imf/imported-flagship-issues/external/arabic/pubs/ft/reo/2015/mcd/mreo0515a.pdf", "summary": { "path": "/-/media/websites/imf/imported-flagship-issues/external/arabic/pubs/ft/reo/2015/mcd/mreo0515a.pdf.md", "mime": "text/markdown" }, "binary": { "path": "/-/media/websites/imf/imported-flagship-issues/external/arabic/pubs/ft/reo/2015/mcd/mreo0515a.pdf", "mime": "application/pdf" } }, { "title": "بعض 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