{
  "title": "Regional Economic Outlook: Middle East and Central Asia, October 2011 -- Table of Contents",
  "publication": "Middle East and Central Asia, October 26, 2011",
  "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/en/publications/reo/meca/issues/2017/01/07/regional-economic-outlook-middle-east-and-central-asia2",
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  "summary": "The Arab Spring \"holds the promise of improved living standards and a more prosperous future for the peoples of the Middle East and North Africa region.\"",
  "sections": [
    {
      "heading": "Overview and Main Messages",
      "content": "- The Arab Spring \"holds the promise of improved living standards and a more prosperous future for the peoples of the Middle East and North Africa region.\"\n- The region is also \"witnessing uncertainty and economic pressures from domestic and external sources, which will likely be exacerbated by the recent worsening of the global economy.\"\n- \"The main challenge in the short term will be to manage expectations while maintaining economic stability.\"\n- Policy priorities identified:\n  - \"Better-targeted subsidies and transfers will help free up resources for investment in infrastructure, education, and health.\"\n  - \"Policies aimed at fostering inclusive growth will also help cement the longer-term benefits of the ongoing changes in the region.\""
    },
    {
      "heading": "MENAP (Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan)",
      "content": "- Structure:\n  - MENAP Highlights\n  - Chapter 1: MENAP Oil Exporters: Benefiting from High Oil Prices amid Growing Risks\n  - Chapter 2: MENAP Oil Importers: Meeting Social Needs, Restoring Economic Confidence\n  - Annexes: Annex 1.1; Annex 2.1; Annex 2.2\n- Key points from Chapter 1 (MENAP Oil Exporters):\n  - \"Gradual Recovery Continues\"\n  - \"Fiscal Expansion Continues, with New Vigor in the Social Sector\"\n  - \"Fiscal, External Balances Improve despite Higher Spending\"\n  - \"Financial Conditions Point to Increased Regional, Global Risk\"\n  - \"Banks Gain Strength, but Credit Recovery Remains Subdued\"\n  - \"Inflationary Pressures Modest amid High Commodity Prices\"\n  - \"Echoes of 2008, but with Key Differences in Risk Tolerance\"\n  - Policy focus: \"Designing Fiscal Policy for the Long Haul\"; \"Monetary Policy for Stability and Growth\"; \"Structural Reforms Should Continue\"\n- Key points from Chapter 2 (MENAP Oil Importers):\n  - \"Sharp Downturn to Last through 2012\"\n  - \"Inflation Remains Stable as Food and Fuel Subsidies Rise\"\n  - \"External Balances Are Worsening\"\n  - \"Financial Markets Have Taken a Hit\"\n  - \"Spending Escalates with Universal Subsidies Rising Sharply\"\n  - \"Fiscal Deficits Increasingly Financed from Domestic Sources\"\n  - \"The Road Ahead Is Challenging\"\n  - Policy focus: \"The Way Forward to Inclusive Growth\"\n- Selected analytic boxes relevant to MENAP:\n  - 1.1 Libyan Revolution: Economic Impact and Challenges Ahead\n  - 1.2 Sudan and South Sudan: Beyond the Breakup\n  - 1.3 Labor Markets in the GCC\n  - 2.1 Mitigating the Impact of High Energy Prices: Oil Importers as Commodity Exporters\n  - 2.2 Global Linkages and Regional Spillovers from the Slowdown in Europe\n  - 2.3 MENAP Oil Importers: Domestic Fuel Pricing\n  - 2.4 Who Benefits from Energy Subsidies? Evidence from Jordan and Mauritania"
    },
    {
      "heading": "Caucasus and Central Asia (CCA)",
      "content": "- Structure:\n  - CCA Highlights\n  - Chapter 3: Caucasus and Central Asia: Safeguarding the Recovery (version in Русский)\n  - Annex 3.1\n- Key messages:\n  - \"Recovery Gaining Speed\"\n  - \"Growth Outlook Broadly Positive, but with Downside Risks\"\n  - \"Inflation Remains Elevated in Several Countries\"\n  - \"Policy Options and Challenges\"\n  - Differentiated discussion for \"Oil and Gas Importers\" and \"Oil and Gas Exporters\"\n  - \"Medium-Term Challenges: Jobs and Inclusive Growth\"\n- Selected analytic boxes relevant to the CCA:\n  - 3.1 Regional Spillovers from Russia’s Economic Recovery\n  - 3.2 Remittances and Tax Revenues in CCA Countries\n  - 3.3 Unemployment in the South Caucasus: The Challenge of Making Growth More Inclusive\n  - 3.4 Business Environment and Governance in the CCA"
    },
    {
      "heading": "Figures, Tables, and Statistical Appendix (selected entries listed in contents)",
      "content": "- Notable figure titles and themes:\n  - \"On the Back of High Oil Prices, the Recovery Continues\"\n  - \"Strong Fluctuations in Oil Sector GDP, Non-Oil Remains Steady\"\n  - \"Non-Oil Fiscal Deficits Have Been Widening in Most Countries\"\n  - \"Most Oil Exporters Have Ramped Up Spending\"\n  - \"Despite Higher Spending, Fiscal Balances Improve in Most Countries\"\n  - \"Current Account Balances Improve Further\"\n  - \"Sovereign Risk Levels Still Elevated\"\n  - \"GCC Countries: Spillover Coefficient from Financial Distress in Other MENA Countries\"\n  - \"Stock Market Indices Still Not Back to Pre-Lehman Levels\"\n  - \"Financial Stability Improving, but Vulnerabilities Still Present\"\n  - \"GCC Credit Growth Is Still Mostly Subdued ... Although Deposits Are Picking Up\"\n  - \"Some Inflationary Pressures in the Oil Exporters ... But Inflation Still Subdued in the GCC\"\n  - \"Fiscal Break-Even Oil Prices Have Been Creeping Upward\"\n  - \"New Spending Measures Announced in 2011\" (Table)\n- Statistical Appendix includes tables numbered 1 through 23, covering:\n  - Real GDP Growth; Nominal GDP; Oil Exporters: Oil and Non-Oil Real GDP Growth; Oil Exporters: Crude Oil Production and Exports; Consumer Price Inflation; Core Consumer Price Inflation; Broad Money Growth; General Government Fiscal Balance; General Government Total Revenue, Excluding Grants; Oil Exporters: General Government Non-Oil Fiscal Balance; Oil Exporters: General Government Non-Oil Revenue; General Government Total Expenditure and Net Lending; Total Government Gross Debt; Selected MENAP Countries: Total Government Net Debt; Exports of Goods and Services; Imports of Goods and Services; Current Account Balance (Billion U.S. dollars); Current Account Balance (Percent of GDP); Gross Official Reserves; Total Gross External Debt; Capital Adequacy Ratios; Return on Assets; Nonperforming Loans\n\nRegional Economic Outlook: Middle East and Central Asia, October 2011 — Table of Contents\n\n---\n\n Content in this bundle\n\n- الفصلين 1 و2 لآفاق الاقتصاد الإقليمي: منطقة الشرق الأوسط وشمال إفريقيا وأفغانستان وباكستان\n  - الفصلين 1 و2 لآفاق الاقتصاد الإقليمي: منطقة الشرق الأوسط وشمال إفريقيا وأفغانستان وباكستان (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - الفصلين 1 و2 لآفاق الاقتصاد الإقليمي: منطقة الشرق الأوسط وشمال إفريقيا وأفغانستان وباكستان (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- آفاق الاقتصاد الإقليمي: منطقة الشرق الأوسط وشمال إفريقيا وأفغانستان وباكستان : أضواء على أهم الأحداث\n  - آفاق الاقتصاد الإقليمي: منطقة الشرق الأوسط وشمال إفريقيا وأفغانستان وباكستان : أضواء على أهم الأحداث (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - آفاق الاقتصاد الإقليمي: منطقة الشرق الأوسط وشمال إفريقيا وأفغانستان وباكستان : أضواء على أهم الأحداث (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- عرض عن آفاق الاقتصاد الإقليمي: منطقة الشرق الأوسط وآسيا الوسطى، عدد أكتوبر 2011\n  - عرض عن آفاق الاقتصاد الإقليمي: منطقة الشرق الأوسط وآسيا الوسطى، عدد أكتوبر 2011 (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - عرض عن آفاق الاقتصاد الإقليمي: منطقة الشرق الأوسط وآسيا الوسطى، عدد أكتوبر 2011 (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- 2011 年10 月中东和中亚《地区经济展望》高加索和中亚地区要点, 2011 年10 月 31 日\n  - 2011 年10 月中东和中亚《地区经济展望》高加索和中亚地区要点, 2011 年10 月 31 日 (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - 2011 年10 月中东和中亚《地区经济展望》高加索和中亚地区要点, 2011 年10 月 31 日 (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Perspectives économiques régionales – Moyen-Orient et Afrique du Nord; Octobre 2011\n  - Perspectives économiques régionales – Moyen-Orient et Afrique du Nord; Octobre 2011 (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - Perspectives économiques régionales – Moyen-Orient et Afrique du Nord; Octobre 2011 (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Perspectives économiques régionales – Moyen-Orient, Afrique du Nord, Afghanistan et Pakistan\n  - Perspectives économiques régionales – Moyen-Orient, Afrique du Nord, Afghanistan et Pakistan (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - Perspectives économiques régionales – Moyen-Orient, Afrique du Nord, Afghanistan et Pakistan (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Moyen-Orient et Asie centrale: Perspectives économiques régionales; Octobre 2011\n  - Moyen-Orient et Asie centrale: Perspectives économiques régionales; Octobre 2011 (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - Moyen-Orient et Asie centrale: Perspectives économiques régionales; Octobre 2011 (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Caucasus and Central Asia\n  - Caucasus and Central Asia (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - Caucasus and Central Asia (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Caucasus and Central Asia Regional Economic Outlook; October 2011\n  - Caucasus and Central Asia Regional Economic Outlook; October 2011 (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - Caucasus and Central Asia Regional Economic Outlook; October 2011 (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Regional Economic Outlook: Caucasus and Central Asia: Safeguarding the Recovery\n  - Regional Economic Outlook: Caucasus and Central Asia: Safeguarding the Recovery (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - Regional Economic Outlook: Caucasus and Central Asia: Safeguarding the Recovery (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- MENAP Highlights\n  - MENAP Highlights (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - MENAP Highlights (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Middle East and Central Asia: Regional Economic Outlook; October 2011\n  - Middle East and Central Asia: Regional Economic Outlook; October 2011 (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - Middle East and Central Asia: Regional Economic Outlook; October 2011 (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Regional Economic Outlook:  Middle East and Central Asia; October 2011\n  - Regional Economic Outlook:  Middle East and Central Asia; October 2011 (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - Regional Economic Outlook:  Middle East and Central Asia; October 2011 (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Oilexporterspdf\n  - Oilexporterspdf (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - Oilexporterspdf (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- 2. MENAP Oil Importers: Meeting Social Needs, Restoring Economic Confidence\n  - 2. MENAP Oil Importers: Meeting Social Needs, Restoring Economic Confidence (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - 2. MENAP Oil Importers: Meeting Social Needs, Restoring Economic Confidence (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Кавказ и Центральная Азия\n  - Кавказ и Центральная Азия (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - Кавказ и Центральная Азия (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Основные положения по странам КЦА\n  - Основные положения по странам КЦА (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - Основные положения по странам КЦА (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Кавказ и Центральная Азия: Перспективы развития региональной экономики; Октябрь 2011 года\n  - Кавказ и Центральная Азия: Перспективы развития региональной экономики; Октябрь 2011 года (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - Кавказ и Центральная Азия: Перспективы развития региональной экономики; Октябрь 2011 года (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n\n---\n\n References\n\n- Sign up to receive free e-mail notices when new series and/or country items are posted on the IMF website.\n- Modify your profile\n- Blog: Mideast Braces Itself for a Multi-Year Transition\n- Press Release: IMF Sees Varied Outlook for Mideast, with Oil-Importing Countries Facing Continued Economic Pressures\n- IMF Survey: Mideast Outlook Varies Markedly Across Region\n- Blog: What to Do About Unemployment in the Caucasus and Central Asia\n- Press Release: Caucasus, Central Asia Set for Robust Growth, But Global Risks Weigh\n- IMF Survey: Caucasus, Central Asia Set for Robust Growth, But Global Risks Weigh\n- Middle East: Regional Economic Outlooks Archive\n- Regional Economic Outlooks\n- IMF Regional Reports\n- World Economic Outlook Archives\n- Subscribe\n- Ordering Information\n- Disclaimer\n- https://www.imf.org/en/home\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/reo/meca/issues/2017/01/07/regional-economic-outlook-middle-east-and-central-asia2"
    }
  ],
  "bullets": [
    "[Markdown version](/en/publications/reo/meca/issues/2017/01/07/regional-economic-outlook-middle-east-and-central-asia2/index.md)",
    "[Structured JSON version](/en/publications/reo/meca/issues/2017/01/07/regional-economic-outlook-middle-east-and-central-asia2/index.json)",
    "[Bundle manifest](/en/publications/reo/meca/issues/2017/01/07/regional-economic-outlook-middle-east-and-central-asia2/bundle-manifest.json)",
    "Published: October 26, 2011",
    "Series: Middle East and Central Asia",
    "The Arab Spring \"holds the promise of improved living standards and a more prosperous future for the peoples of the Middle East and North Africa region.\"",
    "The region is also \"witnessing uncertainty and economic pressures from domestic and external sources, which will likely be exacerbated by the recent worsening of the global economy.\"",
    "\"The main challenge in the short term will be to manage expectations while maintaining economic stability.\"",
    "Policy priorities identified:",
    "Structure:",
    "Key points from Chapter 1 (MENAP Oil Exporters):",
    "Key points from Chapter 2 (MENAP Oil Importers):",
    "Selected analytic boxes relevant to MENAP:",
    "Structure:",
    "Key messages:",
    "Selected analytic boxes relevant to the CCA:",
    "Notable figure titles and themes:",
    "Statistical Appendix includes tables numbered 1 through 23, covering:",
    "**الفصلين 1 و2 لآفاق الاقتصاد الإقليمي: منطقة الشرق الأوسط وشمال إفريقيا وأفغانستان وباكستان**",
    "**آفاق الاقتصاد الإقليمي: منطقة الشرق الأوسط وشمال إفريقيا وأفغانستان وباكستان : أضواء على أهم الأحداث**",
    "**عرض عن آفاق الاقتصاد الإقليمي: منطقة الشرق الأوسط وآسيا الوسطى، عدد أكتوبر 2011**",
    "**2011 年10 月中东和中亚《地区经济展望》高加索和中亚地区要点, 2011 年10 月 31 日**",
    "**Perspectives économiques régionales – Moyen-Orient et Afrique du Nord; Octobre 2011**",
    "**Perspectives économiques régionales – Moyen-Orient, Afrique du Nord, Afghanistan et Pakistan**",
    "**Moyen-Orient et Asie centrale: Perspectives économiques régionales; Octobre 2011**",
    "**Caucasus and Central Asia**",
    "**Caucasus and Central Asia Regional Economic Outlook; October 2011**",
    "**Regional Economic Outlook: Caucasus and Central Asia: Safeguarding the Recovery**",
    "**MENAP Highlights**",
    "**Middle East and Central Asia: Regional Economic Outlook; October 2011**",
    "**Regional Economic Outlook:  Middle East and Central Asia; October 2011**",
    "**Oilexporterspdf**",
    "**2. MENAP Oil Importers: Meeting Social Needs, Restoring Economic Confidence**",
    "**Кавказ и Центральная Азия**",
    "**Основные положения по странам КЦА**",
    "**Кавказ и Центральная Азия: Перспективы развития региональной экономики; Октябрь 2011 года**",
    "[Sign up to receive free e-mail notices when new series and/or country items are posted on the IMF website.](https://www.imf.org/en/email-subscription/index)",
    "[Modify your profile](https://www.imf.org/en/email-subscription/login)",
    "[Blog: Mideast Braces Itself for a Multi-Year Transition](http://blog-imfdirect.imf.org/2011/10/26/mideast-braces-itself-for-a-multi-year-transition/)",
    "[Press Release: IMF Sees Varied Outlook for Mideast, with Oil-Importing Countries Facing Continued Economic Pressures](https://www.imf.org/external/np/sec/pr/2011/pr11378.htm)",
    "[IMF Survey: Mideast Outlook Varies Markedly Across Region](https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/survey/so/2011/CAR102511A.htm)",
    "[Blog: What to Do About Unemployment in the Caucasus and Central Asia](http://blog-imfdirect.imf.org/2011/10/31/what-to-do-about-unemployment-in-the-caucasus-and-central-asia/)",
    "[Press Release: Caucasus, Central Asia Set for Robust Growth, But Global Risks Weigh](https://www.imf.org/external/np/sec/pr/2011/pr11383.htm)",
    "[IMF Survey: Caucasus, Central Asia Set for Robust Growth, But Global Risks Weigh](https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/survey/so/2011/CAR102711A.htm)",
    "[Middle East: Regional Economic Outlooks Archive](https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/reo/reorepts.aspx?ddlRegions=9&ddlYear=-1)",
    "[Regional Economic Outlooks](https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/reo/reorepts.aspx)",
    "[IMF Regional Reports](https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/region.asp)",
    "[World Economic Outlook Archives](https://www.imf.org/external/ns/cs.aspx?id=29)",
    "[Subscribe](https://www.imf.org/external/RSS/feeds.aspx?Category=PUBS_GF)",
    "[Ordering Information](https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.cfm?sk=24751.0)",
    "[Disclaimer](https://www.imf.org/external/terms.htm)"
  ],
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