## Regional Economic Outlook: Middle East and Central Asia, October 2011 -- Table of Contents

_Middle East and Central Asia, October 26, 2011_

## Source details

**Canonical URL:** [Regional Economic Outlook: Middle East and Central Asia, October 2011 -- Table of Contents](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/reo/meca/issues/2017/01/07/regional-economic-outlook-middle-east-and-central-asia2)

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## Bibliographic details
- Published: October 26, 2011
- Series: Middle East and Central Asia

---

### Overview and Main Messages
- The Arab Spring "holds the promise of improved living standards and a more prosperous future for the peoples of the Middle East and North Africa region."
- The region is also "witnessing uncertainty and economic pressures from domestic and external sources, which will likely be exacerbated by the recent worsening of the global economy."
- "The main challenge in the short term will be to manage expectations while maintaining economic stability."
- Policy priorities identified:
  - "Better-targeted subsidies and transfers will help free up resources for investment in infrastructure, education, and health."
  - "Policies aimed at fostering inclusive growth will also help cement the longer-term benefits of the ongoing changes in the region."

### MENAP (Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan)
- Structure:
  - MENAP Highlights
  - Chapter 1: MENAP Oil Exporters: Benefiting from High Oil Prices amid Growing Risks
  - Chapter 2: MENAP Oil Importers: Meeting Social Needs, Restoring Economic Confidence
  - Annexes: Annex 1.1; Annex 2.1; Annex 2.2
- Key points from Chapter 1 (MENAP Oil Exporters):
  - "Gradual Recovery Continues"
  - "Fiscal Expansion Continues, with New Vigor in the Social Sector"
  - "Fiscal, External Balances Improve despite Higher Spending"
  - "Financial Conditions Point to Increased Regional, Global Risk"
  - "Banks Gain Strength, but Credit Recovery Remains Subdued"
  - "Inflationary Pressures Modest amid High Commodity Prices"
  - "Echoes of 2008, but with Key Differences in Risk Tolerance"
  - Policy focus: "Designing Fiscal Policy for the Long Haul"; "Monetary Policy for Stability and Growth"; "Structural Reforms Should Continue"
- Key points from Chapter 2 (MENAP Oil Importers):
  - "Sharp Downturn to Last through 2012"
  - "Inflation Remains Stable as Food and Fuel Subsidies Rise"
  - "External Balances Are Worsening"
  - "Financial Markets Have Taken a Hit"
  - "Spending Escalates with Universal Subsidies Rising Sharply"
  - "Fiscal Deficits Increasingly Financed from Domestic Sources"
  - "The Road Ahead Is Challenging"
  - Policy focus: "The Way Forward to Inclusive Growth"
- Selected analytic boxes relevant to MENAP:
  - 1.1 Libyan Revolution: Economic Impact and Challenges Ahead
  - 1.2 Sudan and South Sudan: Beyond the Breakup
  - 1.3 Labor Markets in the GCC
  - 2.1 Mitigating the Impact of High Energy Prices: Oil Importers as Commodity Exporters
  - 2.2 Global Linkages and Regional Spillovers from the Slowdown in Europe
  - 2.3 MENAP Oil Importers: Domestic Fuel Pricing
  - 2.4 Who Benefits from Energy Subsidies? Evidence from Jordan and Mauritania

### Caucasus and Central Asia (CCA)
- Structure:
  - CCA Highlights
  - Chapter 3: Caucasus and Central Asia: Safeguarding the Recovery (version in Русский)
  - Annex 3.1
- Key messages:
  - "Recovery Gaining Speed"
  - "Growth Outlook Broadly Positive, but with Downside Risks"
  - "Inflation Remains Elevated in Several Countries"
  - "Policy Options and Challenges"
  - Differentiated discussion for "Oil and Gas Importers" and "Oil and Gas Exporters"
  - "Medium-Term Challenges: Jobs and Inclusive Growth"
- Selected analytic boxes relevant to the CCA:
  - 3.1 Regional Spillovers from Russia’s Economic Recovery
  - 3.2 Remittances and Tax Revenues in CCA Countries
  - 3.3 Unemployment in the South Caucasus: The Challenge of Making Growth More Inclusive
  - 3.4 Business Environment and Governance in the CCA

### Figures, Tables, and Statistical Appendix (selected entries listed in contents)
- Notable figure titles and themes:
  - "On the Back of High Oil Prices, the Recovery Continues"
  - "Strong Fluctuations in Oil Sector GDP, Non-Oil Remains Steady"
  - "Non-Oil Fiscal Deficits Have Been Widening in Most Countries"
  - "Most Oil Exporters Have Ramped Up Spending"
  - "Despite Higher Spending, Fiscal Balances Improve in Most Countries"
  - "Current Account Balances Improve Further"
  - "Sovereign Risk Levels Still Elevated"
  - "GCC Countries: Spillover Coefficient from Financial Distress in Other MENA Countries"
  - "Stock Market Indices Still Not Back to Pre-Lehman Levels"
  - "Financial Stability Improving, but Vulnerabilities Still Present"
  - "GCC Credit Growth Is Still Mostly Subdued ... Although Deposits Are Picking Up"
  - "Some Inflationary Pressures in the Oil Exporters ... But Inflation Still Subdued in the GCC"
  - "Fiscal Break-Even Oil Prices Have Been Creeping Upward"
  - "New Spending Measures Announced in 2011" (Table)
- Statistical Appendix includes tables numbered 1 through 23, covering:
  - Real GDP Growth; Nominal GDP; Oil Exporters: Oil and Non-Oil Real GDP Growth; Oil Exporters: Crude Oil Production and Exports; Consumer Price Inflation; Core Consumer Price Inflation; Broad Money Growth; General Government Fiscal Balance; General Government Total Revenue, Excluding Grants; Oil Exporters: General Government Non-Oil Fiscal Balance; Oil Exporters: General Government Non-Oil Revenue; General Government Total Expenditure and Net Lending; Total Government Gross Debt; Selected MENAP Countries: Total Government Net Debt; Exports of Goods and Services; Imports of Goods and Services; Current Account Balance (Billion U.S. dollars); Current Account Balance (Percent of GDP); Gross Official Reserves; Total Gross External Debt; Capital Adequacy Ratios; Return on Assets; Nonperforming Loans

*Regional Economic Outlook: Middle East and Central Asia, October 2011 — Table of Contents*

---

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---

## References

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- [Blog: Mideast Braces Itself for a Multi-Year Transition](http://blog-imfdirect.imf.org/2011/10/26/mideast-braces-itself-for-a-multi-year-transition/)
- [Press Release: IMF Sees Varied Outlook for Mideast, with Oil-Importing Countries Facing Continued Economic Pressures](https://www.imf.org/external/np/sec/pr/2011/pr11378.htm)
- [IMF Survey: Mideast Outlook Varies Markedly Across Region](https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/survey/so/2011/CAR102511A.htm)
- [Blog: What to Do About Unemployment in the Caucasus and Central Asia](http://blog-imfdirect.imf.org/2011/10/31/what-to-do-about-unemployment-in-the-caucasus-and-central-asia/)
- [Press Release: Caucasus, Central Asia Set for Robust Growth, But Global Risks Weigh](https://www.imf.org/external/np/sec/pr/2011/pr11383.htm)
- [IMF Survey: Caucasus, Central Asia Set for Robust Growth, But Global Risks Weigh](https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/survey/so/2011/CAR102711A.htm)
- [Middle East: Regional Economic Outlooks Archive](https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/reo/reorepts.aspx?ddlRegions=9&ddlYear=-1)
- [Regional Economic Outlooks](https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/reo/reorepts.aspx)
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_Source: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/reo/meca/issues/2017/01/07/regional-economic-outlook-middle-east-and-central-asia2_