## Regional Economic Outlook: Middle East and Central Asia, October 2010 -- Table of Contents _Middle East and Central Asia, April 27, 2011_ ## Source details **Canonical URL:** [Regional Economic Outlook: Middle East and Central Asia, October 2010 -- Table of Contents](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/reo/meca/issues/2017/01/07/regional-economic-outlook-middle-east-and-central-asia3) ## Other formats - [Markdown version](/en/publications/reo/meca/issues/2017/01/07/regional-economic-outlook-middle-east-and-central-asia3/index.md) - [Structured JSON version](/en/publications/reo/meca/issues/2017/01/07/regional-economic-outlook-middle-east-and-central-asia3/index.json) - [Bundle manifest](/en/publications/reo/meca/issues/2017/01/07/regional-economic-outlook-middle-east-and-central-asia3/bundle-manifest.json) ## Bibliographic details - Published: April 27, 2011 - Series: Middle East and Central Asia --- ### Regional overview and main findings - Reports on the regional implications of the global economic recovery and presents key policy challenges and recommendations. - Rebound in crude oil prices and production leads to visible improvements in fiscal and external balances in 2010–11 for oil-exporting countries of the Middle East and North Africa. - Further efforts at financial sector development and economic diversification are top agenda items for oil exporters. - Oil-importing countries (including Afghanistan and Pakistan) weathered the global recession well; Pakistan suffered devastating floods in July/August, which will hold back growth this year. - Overriding longer-term challenges for oil-importers: raise growth and provide jobs for expanding populations. - In the Caucasus and Central Asia, recovery has gained momentum in virtually all countries, aided by the lagged effect of fiscal stimulus and a favorable external environment; exports are picking up and remittances are rebounding, though at a slowing pace. - Despite broadly positive outlooks, risks are largely on the downside. - Priority policy actions across the region include resolving banking sector problems and, in some countries, reducing external debt and current account deficits. ### Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan (MENAP) — Highlights and chapters - MENAP Highlights - Chapter 1: MENAP Oil Exporters: Opportunity to Pursue Fundamental Reforms - Sections: Increased Uncertainty, But Financial Windfalls; Despite the Windfalls, Near-Term Policy Challenges Remain; Medium Term: Outlook Good, But Deep Structural Reforms Needed - Chapter 2: MENAP Oil Importers: Winds of Change - Sections: Before the Protests; Temporary Toll on Region’s Economies; Higher Commodity Prices Add to Challenges; Policy Responses Come at a Fiscal Cost…; …But Higher Spending Will Support Near-Term Growth; Economic Policy Space Is Tight; The Road Ahead - Chapter 3: Policy Challenges - 3.1 MENA Oil Importers: Creating Jobs for the Young Workforce - Unemployment: Largely a Youth Phenomenon - Quick Wins with Long-Term Benefits: Lessons from Elsewhere - Pillars of a Comprehensive Job Strategy - 3.2 Moving from Subsidizing Products to Protecting People: Strengthening Social Protection in MENAP - The Cost of Reliance on Subsidies for Social Protection - Why Is Price Subsidy Reform So Difficult? - Steps to Strengthen Social Protection in the Short Term - Advancing Subsidy Reform with Broad Ownership - 3.3 The Impact of Financial Development on Economic Growth in the Middle East and North Africa - Financial Depth Is Adequate Overall…; …But Banks Have Not Delivered; Policy Actions Going Forward ### Caucasus and Central Asia (CCA) — Highlights and chapters - CCA Highlights - Chapter 4: Caucasus and Central Asia: Sustaining the Recovery - Sections: Growth Continued to Recover But Inflation Picked Up; Continuing Recovery at a Moderating Pace; Risks to the Outlook; Policy Challenges: Achieving Sustainable and Inclusive Growth; Is Inflation a Concern?; Resisting Fiscal Pressures, Improving Expenditure Quality; Strengthening Bank Balance Sheets; Improving the Business Climate to Create Job Opportunities ### Policy recommendations and priorities (region-wide, as presented) - For oil exporters: - Pursue financial sector development. - Advance economic diversification away from oil dependence. - Use improved oil revenues to address fiscal and external balances while advancing structural reforms. - For oil importers: - Raise growth and create jobs for expanding and youthful populations. - Manage the fiscal cost of policy responses to surging commodity prices. - Implement more cost-effective social safety nets to replace subsidies over the medium term. - For Caucasus and Central Asia: - Address rising inflation without threatening fiscal stability. - Restore the health of banking systems. - Diversify growth beyond mining, oil, and gas to increase job creation and reduce poverty. - Cross-cutting priorities: - Resolve banking sector problems. - Reduce external debt and current account deficits where needed. - Strengthen social protection, including steps to advance subsidy reform with broad ownership. - Improve expenditure quality and resist unsustainable fiscal pressures. ### Notable boxes, figures, tables, and statistical appendices included - Boxes (selected): 1.1 Stabilizing Global Oil Markets; 1.2 Sudan: Economic Challenges for North and South Sudan; 1.3 Employment Creation in Oil Exporters; 1.4 Spillovers from the GCC; 2.1 Political Unrest Shakes Egyptian and Tunisian Economies; 2.2 Tourism Takes a Break; 3.2.2 Examples of Successful Subsidy Reforms; 4.1 Poverty and Social Context in the CCA; 4.4 New Pipelines in the Caucasus and Central Asia Region - Figures (selected): 1.1 Crude Oil Prices Rise Sharply; 1.6 Current Accounts Improve Across the Board; 1.8 Fiscal Balances Improve; 2.6 New Fiscal Costs; 3.1.1 Unemployment Rates by Region; 4.6 High and Mostly Rising Levels of Nonperforming Loans - Tables (selected): 1.1 Summary of Recent Fiscal Policy Measures; 2.1 Impact of Higher Fuel and Food Prices; 2.2 Fiscal Policy Measures Announced Since Late 2010 - Statistical Appendix covers 1. Real GDP Growth through 22. 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[Основные положения по странам КЦА (PDF)](/-/media/websites/imf/imported-flagship-issues/external/russian/pubs/ft/reo/mcd/2011/04/cca0411hir.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"} --- ## References - [Sign up to receive free e-mail notices when new series and/or country items are posted on the IMF website.](https://www.imf.org/en/email-subscription/index) - [Modify your profile](https://www.imf.org/en/email-subscription/login) - [Watch video:](http://www.imf.org/external/mmedia/view.aspx?vid=919888585001) - [شاهدوا الفيديو](http://www.imf.org/external/mmedia/view.aspx?vid=919932142001) - [The MENA Jobs and Growth Challenge: How Can Finance Help?](http://blog-imfdirect.imf.org/2011/05/23/how-can-finance-help-middle-east-jobs-and-growth/) - [Subsidies—Love Them or Hate Them, It's Better to Target Them](http://blog-imfdirect.imf.org/2011/05/10/food-and-fuel-subsidies/) - [IMF Sees Long-Term Opportunities for the Middle East and North Africa Despite Short-Term Challenges Amid Unrest](https://www.imf.org/external/np/sec/pr/2011/pr11147.htm) - [Mideast Countries See Opportunity Amid Unrest](https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/survey/so/2011/car042611A.htm) - [Watch video:](http://www.imf.org/external/mmedia/view.aspx?vid=921096928001) - [Seven Pillars of Prosperity—Diversifying Economic Growth in the Caucasus and Central Asia](http://blog-imfdirect.imf.org/2011/05/05/seven-pillars-of-economic-prosperity%e2%80%94caucasus-and-central-asia/) - [Strong Recovery in the Caucasus and Central Asia to Continue in 2011](https://www.imf.org/external/np/sec/pr/2011/pr11151.htm) - [Caucasus, Central Asia Rebound, But Inflation Poses Risk](https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/survey/so/2011/CAR042711b.htm) - [Regional Economic Outlooks](http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/reo/reorepts.aspx) - [Tensions from the Two-Speed Recovery: Unemployment, Commodities, and Capital Flows](https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2011/01/index.htm) - [Adobe Acrobat Reader](https://www.imf.org/adobe) - [Ordering Information](https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.cfm?sk=24328.0) _Source: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/reo/meca/issues/2017/01/07/regional-economic-outlook-middle-east-and-central-asia3_