{ "title": "Regional Economic Outlook: Middle East and Central Asia, November 2013 -- Table of Contents", "publication": "Middle East and Central Asia, November 11, 2013", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/en/publications/reo/meca/issues/2017/01/07/regional-economic-outlook-middle-east-and-central-asia6", "canonical": "https://www.imf.org/en/publications/reo/meca/issues/2017/01/07/regional-economic-outlook-middle-east-and-central-asia6", "overlayPath": "/en/publications/reo/meca/issues/2017/01/07/regional-economic-outlook-middle-east-and-central-asia6/index.md", "summary": "The near-term economic outlook for the Middle East and North Africa region has weakened.", "publishDate": "2013-11-11", "series": "Middle East and Central Asia", "sections": [ { "heading": "Near-term outlook and policy priorities for MENAP (Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan)", "content": "- The near-term economic outlook for the Middle East and North Africa region has weakened.\n- In the oil-importing countries, many of which are Arab countries in transition, regional conflict, heightened political tensions, and delays in reforms continue to weigh on growth.\n- Immediate policy priorities:\n - Restore confidence and create jobs.\n - Make inroads into fiscal consolidation to restore debt sustainability and rebuild buffers.\n - Embark on structural reforms needed to support private sector-led, job-intensive growth.\n- For most oil-exporting countries:\n - Continue to enjoy steady growth in the non-oil sector, supported in part by high levels of public spending.\n - Headline growth has declined because of domestic oil supply disruptions and lower global demand.\n - A recovery in oil production is expected to lift growth next year.\n - Increased vulnerability to a sustained decline in oil prices and intergenerational equity considerations underscore the need to strengthen fiscal buffers.\n - Key medium-term challenges: economic diversification and faster private-sector job-creation for nationals." }, { "heading": "Outlook and recommendations for Caucasus and Central Asia (CCA)", "content": "- Economic activity in the Caucasus and Central Asia is expected to continue to expand rapidly.\n- Growth drivers:\n - Recovery in the hydrocarbon sector.\n - Firm growth in domestic demand.\n - Robust remittance inflows.\n- Downside risks:\n - Considerable downside risks stem in particular from slower-than-expected growth in Russia, an important trading partner and source of remittance inflows.\n- Policy recommendations:\n - Take advantage of favorable near-term economic conditions to rebuild fiscal policy buffers that were eroded after the global crisis.\n - Set in motion a process of structural transformation into dynamic emerging economies." }, { "heading": "Major chapters and thematic areas covered (high level)", "content": "- MENAP Region Highlights\n- Chapter 1: MENAP Oil Exporters\n - Growth Outlook Defined by Volatile Oil Production\n - A Reduction in Oil Revenues Is a Key Risk\n - Fiscal Space and Intergenerational Equity\n - Stepped-up Policy Action Is Needed for Growth and Job Creation\n- Chapter 2: MENAP Oil Importers\n - Tension and Conflict Impair Economic Activity\n - Downside Risks Are Significant\n - External and Fiscal Positions Are Highly Vulnerable\n - Medium-Term Growth Prospects Are Weak\n - A Package of Reforms and External Financing Is Needed\n - Getting the Pace and Composition of Fiscal Consolidation Right\n - Where Conditions Allow, Monetary Policy Should Be Supportive\n - Structural Policies to Raise Growth Potential\n - International Support\n- Chapter 3: Caucasus and Central Asia\n - Commodities, Remittances Support Rapid Economic Expansion\n - Risks to the Near-Term Outlook Are Tilted to the Downside\n - Inflation Stays Largely within a Comfortable Range\n - Slowly Recuperating Financial Sector Needs Strong Oversight\n - External Positions Call for More Exchange Rate Flexibility\n - Fiscal Consolidation Is Needed to Increase Buffers and Stabilize Debt\n - Toward Becoming Vibrant Emerging Markets" }, { "heading": "Annexes and cross-cutting analysis", "content": "- Annex 1. Prospects for the Global Oil Market\n- Annex 2. International Linkages and Spillovers for MENAP and CCA\n - Moderate Yet Growing Linkages to the Rest of the World\n - Increasing Synchrony of Output Cycles\n - Lower-than-Anticipated Growth in Emerging Markets Is an Important Risk\n - Slowdown in the Euro Area Would Mainly Affect the Maghreb\n - Effects of Tighter Global Financial Conditions Should Be Manageable\n- Annex 3. Anchoring Fiscal Policy in Oil-Exporting Countries\n - The Role of Fiscal Policy for MENAP and CCA Oil Exporters\n- Annex 4. Minimizing the Impact of Fiscal Consolidation on Growth, and Enhancing Equity\n - Mobilizing Tax Revenues\n - Reorienting Spending\n - Supporting Measures and Policies" }, { "heading": "Key analytical emphases, boxes, and figures (selected)", "content": "- Boxes address topics including:\n - Competitiveness and Labor Productivity in MENAP and CCA.\n - Role of Financial Development in Promoting Economic Growth and Reducing Income Inequality and Poverty in MENA and CCA.\n - Female Labor Force Participation in MENAP.\n - The Syrian Conflict and Its Regional Ramifications.\n - MENAP Oil Importers: Weaker Growth Scenario.\n - Subsidy Reform in MENA: Recent Progress and Challenges Ahead.\n- Figures highlight:\n - Crude Oil Production to Drive Recovery in 2014.\n - Oil GDP Pauses in 2013; Non-Oil GDP Slowing but Steady.\n - Fiscal Balances Are Falling and Vulnerable to Oil Prices.\n - Public Sector Wages and Salaries Have Outpaced Revenues.\n - Fiscal and External Breakeven Prices Are High.\n - Current Account Balances Are Falling.\n - Non-Oil Total Factor Productivity Growth Is Mostly Negative.\n - GCC Labor Markets Are Segmented.\n - Real GDP Growth Forecasts Revised Downward for some oil-importing countries.\n- Statistical and sectoral indicators include analyses of:\n - Private Sector Credit, Inflation patterns (GCC moderate; high in Iran), reserve coverage, public debt, external financing needs, nonperforming loans, and sovereign bond spreads.\n\nInternational Monetary Fund\n\n---\n\n Content in this bundle\n\n- منطقة الشرق الأوسط وشمال إفريقيا وأفغانسان وباكستان - نوفمبر ٢٠١٣\n - منطقة الشرق الأوسط وشمال إفريقيا وأفغانسان وباكستان - نوفمبر ٢٠١٣ (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - منطقة الشرق الأوسط وشمال إفريقيا وأفغانسان وباكستان - نوفمبر ٢٠١٣ (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- أضواء على أهم الأحداث في منطقة الشرق الأوسط وشمال إفريقيا وأفغانستان وباكستان - نوفمبر 2013\n - أضواء على أهم الأحداث في منطقة الشرق الأوسط وشمال إفريقيا وأفغانستان وباكستان - نوفمبر 2013 (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - أضواء على أهم الأحداث في منطقة الشرق الأوسط وشمال إفريقيا وأفغانستان وباكستان - نوفمبر 2013 (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Menap1113papdf\n - Menap1113papdf (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- منطقة الشرق الأوسط وشمال أفريقيا وباكستان وأفغانستان (MENAP): أبرز ما ورد\n - منطقة الشرق الأوسط وشمال أفريقيا وباكستان وأفغانستان (MENAP): أبرز ما ورد (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - منطقة الشرق الأوسط وشمال أفريقيا وباكستان وأفغانستان (MENAP): أبرز ما ورد (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- 高加索和中亚地区要点\n - 高加索和中亚地区要点 (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - 高加索和中亚地区要点 (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- 1. Pays exportateurs de pétrole de la région\n - 1. Pays exportateurs de pétrole de la région (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - 1. Pays exportateurs de pétrole de la région (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Région MOANAP : Principaux points\n - Région MOANAP : Principaux points (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - Région MOANAP : Principaux points (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Région MOANAP : Principaux points\n - Région MOANAP : Principaux points (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - Région MOANAP : Principaux points (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- CCA Region Highlights\n - CCA Region Highlights (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - CCA Region Highlights (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- 3. Caucasus and Central Asia: Need to Increase Resilience and Accelerate Reforms\n - 3. Caucasus and Central Asia: Need to Increase Resilience and Accelerate Reforms (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - 3. Caucasus and Central Asia: Need to Increase Resilience and Accelerate Reforms (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Regional Economic Outlook — Caucasus and Central Asia — October 25, 2013\n - Regional Economic Outlook — Caucasus and Central Asia — October 25, 2013 (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - Regional Economic Outlook — Caucasus and Central Asia — October 25, 2013 (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- MENAP Region Highlights\n - MENAP Region Highlights (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - MENAP Region Highlights (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- 1. MENAP Oil Exporters: Heightened Risks to Oil and Fiscal Positions\n - 1. MENAP Oil Exporters: Heightened Risks to Oil and Fiscal Positions (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - 1. MENAP Oil Exporters: Heightened Risks to Oil and Fiscal Positions (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- 2. MENAP Oil Importers: Complex Political Dynamics and Security Challenges\n - 2. MENAP Oil Importers: Complex Political Dynamics and Security Challenges (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - 2. MENAP Oil Importers: Complex Political Dynamics and Security Challenges (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- menapst1113pdf\n - menapst1113pdf (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - menapst1113pdf (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- mreo1113pdf\n - mreo1113pdf (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - mreo1113pdf (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- mreo1113ppdf\n - mreo1113ppdf (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - mreo1113ppdf (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Основные положения по региону КЦА\n - Основные положения по региону КЦА (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - Основные положения по региону КЦА (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Перспективы развития региональной экономики Кавказ и Центральная Азия (25 октября 2013 года)\n - Перспективы развития региональной экономики Кавказ и Центральная Азия (25 октября 2013 года) (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - Перспективы развития региональной экономики Кавказ и Центральная Азия (25 октября 2013 года) (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- cca1013rpdf\n - cca1013rpdf (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - cca1013rpdf (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n\n---\n\n References\n\n- Sign up to receive free e-mail notices when new series and/or country items are posted on the IMF website.\n- Modify your profile\n- Middle East Regional Economic Outlook\n- Mideast Faces Lower Growth Prospects, Needs Bold Policies\n- Caucasus, Central Asia See Robust Growth, But Risks Remain\n- Middle East: Regional Economic Outlooks Archive\n- Regional Economic Outlooks\n- IMF Regional Reports\n- World Economic Outlook Archives\n- Subscribe\n- https://www.imf.org/en/home\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/reo/meca/issues/2017/01/07/regional-economic-outlook-middle-east-and-central-asia6" } ], "bullets": [ "[Markdown version](/en/publications/reo/meca/issues/2017/01/07/regional-economic-outlook-middle-east-and-central-asia6/index.md)", "[Structured JSON version](/en/publications/reo/meca/issues/2017/01/07/regional-economic-outlook-middle-east-and-central-asia6/index.json)", "[Bundle manifest](/en/publications/reo/meca/issues/2017/01/07/regional-economic-outlook-middle-east-and-central-asia6/bundle-manifest.json)", "Published: November 11, 2013", "Series: Middle East and Central Asia", "The near-term economic outlook for the Middle East and North Africa region has weakened.", "In the oil-importing countries, many of which are Arab countries in transition, regional conflict, heightened political tensions, and delays in reforms continue to weigh on growth.", "Immediate policy priorities:", "For most oil-exporting countries:", "Economic activity in the Caucasus and Central Asia is expected to continue to expand rapidly.", "Growth drivers:", "Downside risks:", "Policy recommendations:", "MENAP Region Highlights", "Chapter 1: MENAP Oil Exporters", "Chapter 2: MENAP Oil Importers", "Chapter 3: Caucasus and Central Asia", "Annex 1. Prospects for the Global Oil Market", "Annex 2. International Linkages and Spillovers for MENAP and CCA", "Annex 3. Anchoring Fiscal Policy in Oil-Exporting Countries", "Annex 4. Minimizing the Impact of Fiscal Consolidation on Growth, and Enhancing Equity", "Boxes address topics including:", "Figures highlight:", "Statistical and sectoral indicators include analyses of:", "**منطقة الشرق الأوسط وشمال إفريقيا وأفغانسان وباكستان - نوفمبر ٢٠١٣**", "**أضواء على أهم الأحداث في منطقة الشرق الأوسط وشمال إفريقيا وأفغانستان وباكستان - نوفمبر 2013**", "**Menap1113papdf**", "**منطقة الشرق الأوسط وشمال أفريقيا وباكستان وأفغانستان (MENAP): أبرز ما ورد**", "**高加索和中亚地区要点**", "**1. Pays exportateurs de pétrole de la région**", "**Région MOANAP : Principaux points**", "**Région MOANAP : Principaux points**", "**CCA Region Highlights**", "**3. Caucasus and Central Asia: Need to Increase Resilience and Accelerate Reforms**", "**Regional Economic Outlook — Caucasus and Central Asia — October 25, 2013**", "**MENAP Region Highlights**", "**1. MENAP Oil Exporters: Heightened Risks to Oil and Fiscal Positions**", "**2. MENAP Oil Importers: Complex Political Dynamics and Security Challenges**", "**menapst1113pdf**", "**mreo1113pdf**", "**mreo1113ppdf**", "**Основные положения по региону КЦА**", "**Перспективы развития региональной экономики Кавказ и Центральная Азия (25 октября 2013 года)**", "**cca1013rpdf**", "[Sign up to receive free e-mail notices when new series and/or country items are posted on the IMF website.](https://www.imf.org/en/email-subscription/index)", "[Modify your profile](https://www.imf.org/en/email-subscription/login)", "[Middle East Regional Economic Outlook](http://www.imf.org/external/mmedia/view.aspx?vid=2830436936001)", "[Mideast Faces Lower Growth Prospects, Needs Bold Policies](https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/survey/so/2013/CAR111213A.htm)", "[Caucasus, Central Asia See Robust Growth, But Risks Remain](https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/survey/so/2013/CAR102513A.htm)", "[Middle East: Regional Economic Outlooks Archive](https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/reo/reorepts.aspx?ddlRegions=9&ddlYear=-1)", "[Regional Economic Outlooks](https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/reo/reorepts.aspx)", "[IMF Regional Reports](https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/region.asp)", "[World Economic Outlook Archives](https://www.imf.org/external/ns/cs.aspx?id=29)", "[Subscribe](https://www.imf.org/external/RSS/feeds.aspx?Category=PUBS_GF)", "[https://www.imf.org/en/home](https://www.imf.org/en/home)" ], "related": [ { "title": "منطقة الشرق الأوسط وشمال إفريقيا وأفغانسان وباكستان - نوفمبر ٢٠١٣", "role": "document", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/websites/imf/imported-flagship-issues/external/arabic/pubs/ft/reo/2013/mcd/_menap1113apdf.pdf", "summary": { "path": "/-/media/websites/imf/imported-flagship-issues/external/arabic/pubs/ft/reo/2013/mcd/_menap1113apdf.pdf.md", "mime": "text/markdown" }, "binary": { "path": "/-/media/websites/imf/imported-flagship-issues/external/arabic/pubs/ft/reo/2013/mcd/_menap1113apdf.pdf", "mime": "application/pdf" } }, { "title": "أضواء على أهم الأحداث في منطقة الشرق الأوسط وشمال إفريقيا وأفغانستان وباكستان - نوفمبر 2013", "role": "document", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/websites/imf/imported-flagship-issues/external/arabic/pubs/ft/reo/2013/mcd/_menap1113hapdf.pdf", "summary": { "path": "/-/media/websites/imf/imported-flagship-issues/external/arabic/pubs/ft/reo/2013/mcd/_menap1113hapdf.pdf.md", "mime": "text/markdown" }, "binary": { "path": "/-/media/websites/imf/imported-flagship-issues/external/arabic/pubs/ft/reo/2013/mcd/_menap1113hapdf.pdf", "mime": "application/pdf" } }, { "title": "Menap1113papdf", "role": "document", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/websites/imf/imported-flagship-issues/external/arabic/pubs/ft/reo/2013/mcd/_menap1113papdf.pdf", "binary": { "path": "/-/media/websites/imf/imported-flagship-issues/external/arabic/pubs/ft/reo/2013/mcd/_menap1113papdf.pdf", "mime": "application/pdf" } }, { "title": "منطقة الشرق الأوسط وشمال أفريقيا وباكستان وأفغانستان (MENAP): أبرز ما ورد", "role": "document", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/websites/imf/imported-flagship-issues/external/arabic/pubs/ft/reo/2013/mcd/menap1113_ha.pdf", "summary": { "path": "/-/media/websites/imf/imported-flagship-issues/external/arabic/pubs/ft/reo/2013/mcd/menap1113_ha.pdf.md", "mime": "text/markdown" }, "binary": { "path": "/-/media/websites/imf/imported-flagship-issues/external/arabic/pubs/ft/reo/2013/mcd/menap1113_ha.pdf", "mime": "application/pdf" } }, { "title": "高加索和中亚地区要点", "role": "document", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/websites/imf/imported-flagship-issues/external/chinese/pubs/ft/reo/2013/mcd/_cca1013hcpdf.pdf", "summary": { "path": "/-/media/websites/imf/imported-flagship-issues/external/chinese/pubs/ft/reo/2013/mcd/_cca1013hcpdf.pdf.md", "mime": "text/markdown" }, "binary": { "path": "/-/media/websites/imf/imported-flagship-issues/external/chinese/pubs/ft/reo/2013/mcd/_cca1013hcpdf.pdf", "mime": "application/pdf" } }, { "title": "1. 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Caucasus and Central Asia: Need to Increase Resilience and Accelerate Reforms", "role": "document", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/websites/imf/imported-flagship-issues/external/pubs/ft/reo/2013/mcd/eng/pdf/_cca1013pdf.pdf", "summary": { "path": "/-/media/websites/imf/imported-flagship-issues/external/pubs/ft/reo/2013/mcd/eng/pdf/_cca1013pdf.pdf.md", "mime": "text/markdown" }, "binary": { "path": "/-/media/websites/imf/imported-flagship-issues/external/pubs/ft/reo/2013/mcd/eng/pdf/_cca1013pdf.pdf", "mime": "application/pdf" } }, { "title": "Regional Economic Outlook — Caucasus and Central Asia — October 25, 2013", "role": "document", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/websites/imf/imported-flagship-issues/external/pubs/ft/reo/2013/mcd/eng/pdf/_cca1013ppdf.pdf", "summary": { "path": "/-/media/websites/imf/imported-flagship-issues/external/pubs/ft/reo/2013/mcd/eng/pdf/_cca1013ppdf.pdf.md", "mime": "text/markdown" }, "binary": { "path": "/-/media/websites/imf/imported-flagship-issues/external/pubs/ft/reo/2013/mcd/eng/pdf/_cca1013ppdf.pdf", "mime": "application/pdf" } }, { "title": "MENAP Region Highlights", "role": "document", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/websites/imf/imported-flagship-issues/external/pubs/ft/reo/2013/mcd/eng/pdf/_menap1113hpdf.pdf", "summary": { "path": "/-/media/websites/imf/imported-flagship-issues/external/pubs/ft/reo/2013/mcd/eng/pdf/_menap1113hpdf.pdf.md", "mime": "text/markdown" }, "binary": { "path": "/-/media/websites/imf/imported-flagship-issues/external/pubs/ft/reo/2013/mcd/eng/pdf/_menap1113hpdf.pdf", "mime": "application/pdf" } }, { "title": "1. 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