{
  "title": "Regional Economic Outlook: Middle East and Central Asia, October 2010 -- Table of Contents",
  "publication": "Middle East and Central Asia, October 24, 2010",
  "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/en/publications/reo/meca/issues/2017/01/07/regional-economic-outlook-middle-east-and-central-asia7",
  "canonical": "https://www.imf.org/en/publications/reo/meca/issues/2017/01/07/regional-economic-outlook-middle-east-and-central-asia7",
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  "summary": "The October 2010 Regional Economic Outlook: Middle East and Central Asia reports on the regional implications of the global economic recovery and presents key policy challenges and recommendations.",
  "sections": [
    {
      "heading": "Overview",
      "content": "- The October 2010 Regional Economic Outlook: Middle East and Central Asia reports on the regional implications of the global economic recovery and presents key policy challenges and recommendations.\n- With the rebound in crude oil prices and production, the oil-exporting countries of the Middle East and North Africa will see visible improvements in their fiscal and external balances in 2010–11.\n- Going forward, further efforts at financial sector development and economic diversification top the agenda.\n- The region’s oil-importing countries, which include Afghanistan and Pakistan, have weathered the global recession well; Pakistan, however, suffered from devastating floods in July/August, which will hold back growth this year.\n- The overriding longer-term challenges for oil-importing countries are to raise growth and provide jobs for expanding populations.\n- In the Caucasus and Central Asia, recovery has gained momentum in virtually all countries, aided by the lagged effect of fiscal stimulus and a favorable external environment.\n- Exports are picking up, and remittances are rebounding, though at a slowing pace.\n- Despite the broadly positive outlook, risks are largely on the downside.\n- A priority is to resolve banking sector problems and, in some countries, to reduce external debt and current account deficits."
    },
    {
      "heading": "MENAP Oil Exporters: Key Findings and Policy Directions (Chapter 1)",
      "content": "- Headline: MENAP Oil Exporters: Well Placed to Focus on Medium-Term Challenges\n- Findings:\n  - The postcrisis recovery continues.\n  - There is less pressure on government budgets.\n  - Accommodative monetary policy may soon have to shift gears.\n  - Break-even oil prices in 2010 are explicitly referenced among figures.\n- Policy priorities:\n  - Refocusing medium-term fiscal policy.\n  - Moving on financial sector development.\n- Figures and items referenced (selection):\n  - Oil Sector Leads the Way in Growth Recovery\n  - Recuperating Stock Markets (Figure 1.5)\n  - Some Signs of Inflationary Pressures (Figure 1.6)\n  - Better Fiscal Balances (Figure 1.7)\n  - Fiscal Stances Vary Widely (Figure 1.8)\n  - Credit and Deposits (Figure 1.9)\n  - Break-Even Oil Prices in 2010 (Figure 1.10)"
    },
    {
      "heading": "MENAP Oil Importers: Key Findings and Policy Directions (Chapter 2)",
      "content": "- Headline: MENAP Oil Importers: Adjusting to New Global Growth Patterns\n- Findings:\n  - Recovery gathers momentum.\n  - Fiscal consolidation under way.\n  - Monetary policy can remain accommodative.\n  - Current growth is too low to address unemployment.\n  - Greater competitiveness is key to lifting growth.\n- Specific issues:\n  - Pakistan’s unprecedented floods in July/August with significant social and economic impact (Box 2.1).\n  - Annex 2.1 title: 18 Million Jobs Needed: Raising Growth and Labor Market Responsiveness.\n- Figures and items referenced (selection):\n  - Inflation Holding Steady (Figure 2.5)\n  - Currencies Mostly Appreciating (Figure 2.6)\n  - Lagging Output and Export Growth (Figure 2.7)\n  - Growth Differentials Explained (Figure 2.8)\n  - Competitiveness and Doing Business Indicators (Figure 2.9)\n  - Exports and Remittances Pick Up\n  - Growth Gains Ground, but Remains below Precrisis Levels\n  - Disposable Income Has Not Yet Recovered in Many Countries\n  - Private-Sector Credit Growth Remains Largely Subdued"
    },
    {
      "heading": "The Caucasus and Central Asia: Key Findings and Policy Directions (Chapter 3)",
      "content": "- Headline: The Caucasus and Central Asia: Challenges Beyond the Crisis\n- Findings:\n  - Recovery gains traction across virtually all countries.\n  - Banking sectors are not out of the woods, yet.\n  - Macroeconomic policies should adapt as recovery gathers momentum.\n  - Fiscal policy should aim for consolidation in 2011.\n  - Monetary policy can remain accommodative, mostly.\n  - Addressing external vulnerabilities is a priority.\n- Annex and box highlights:\n  - Annex 3.1: Strengthening Monetary Transmission in the CCA\n  - Box 3.1: Russia Recovers\n  - Box 3.2: Political and Ethnic Turmoil Leaves its Mark on the Kyrgyz Economy\n  - Box 3.3: Wheat Price Woes?\n  - Box 3.4: The Impact of the Belarus–Kazakhstan–Russian Federation Customs Union\n- Figures and items referenced (selection):\n  - High, and Mostly Rising Levels of Nonperforming Loans (Figure 3.5)\n  - Grants to Return to Precrisis Levels in Oil and Gas Importers (Figure 3.6)\n  - Public Debt Has Risen in Oil and Gas Importers (Figure 3.7)\n  - Trimming Down Deficits in Oil and Gas Importers (Figure 3.8)\n  - Oil and Gas Exporters: Time for Fiscal Consolidation (Figure 3.9)\n  - High Current Account Deficits in Oil and Gas Importers (Figure 3.10)\n  - Foreign Direct Investment Still in Short Supply in Oil and Gas Importers (Figure 3.11)\n  - Oil and Gas Importers’ External Debt Is High and Rising (Figure 3.12)\n  - High Levels of Dollarization (Figure 3.13)"
    },
    {
      "heading": "Boxes, Annexes, and Special Topics",
      "content": "- Boxes across chapters include:\n  - 1.1 Dependence on Oil: Cross-Country Comparison\n  - 1.2 Update on Dubai World’s Debt Restructuring\n  - 1.3 Recent Inflation Dynamics in GCC Countries\n  - 1.4 Financial Sector Policy Responses to the Crisis Vary With Different Initial Conditions\n  - 2.1 Unprecedented Floods in Pakistan: The Social and Economic Impact\n  - 2.2 Why Is Inflation High in Egypt and Pakistan?\n  - 2.3 Trade Patterns and Determinants in MENAP Oil-Importing Countries\n  - 3.1 Russia Recovers\n  - 3.2 Political and Ethnic Turmoil Leaves its Mark on the Kyrgyz Economy\n  - 3.3 Wheat Price Woes?\n  - 3.4 The Impact of the Belarus–Kazakhstan–Russian Federation Customs Union\n  - 2.4 Stock Markets Still Far from Peak\n\n- Annexes:\n  - Annex 2.1. 18 Million Jobs Needed: Raising Growth and Labor Market Responsiveness\n  - Annex 3.1. Strengthening Monetary Transmission in the CCA"
    },
    {
      "heading": "Data, Figures, and Tables Inventory (selected)",
      "content": "- Figures listed include thematic and numbered items such as:\n  - Oil Sector Leads the Way in Growth Recovery\n  - Exports Outpace Imports\n  - Current Account Balances Improve Across the Board\n  - More Favorable Financing Conditions, for the Most Part\n  - 1.5 Recuperating Stock Markets\n  - 1.6 Some Signs of Inflationary Pressures\n  - 1.7 Better Fiscal Balances\n  - 1.8 Fiscal Stances Vary Widely\n  - 1.9 Credit and Deposits\n  - 1.10 Break-Even Oil Prices in 2010\n  - 2.5 Inflation Holding Steady\n  - 2.6 Currencies Mostly Appreciating\n  - 2.7 Lagging Output and Export Growth\n  - 2.8 Growth Differentials Explained\n  - 2.9 Competitiveness and Doing Business Indicators\n  - 3.5 High, and Mostly Rising Levels of Nonperforming Loans\n  - 3.6 Grants to Return to Precrisis Levels in Oil and Gas Importers\n  - 3.7 Public Debt Has Risen in Oil and Gas Importers\n  - 3.8 Trimming Down Deficits in Oil and Gas Importers\n  - 3.9 Oil and Gas Exporters: Time for Fiscal Consolidation\n  - 3.10 High Current Account Deficits in Oil and Gas Importers\n  - 3.11 Foreign Direct Investment Still in Short Supply in Oil and Gas Importers\n  - 3.12 Oil and Gas Importers’ External Debt Is High and Rising\n  - 3.13 High Levels of Dollarization\n\n- Tables and statistical appendix tables include:\n  - Table: Fiscal Consolidation Measures Planned for 2011\n  - Statistical Appendix Tables 1 through 21, including:\n    - 1 Real GDP Growth\n    - 2 Nominal GDP\n    - 3 Oil and Non-Oil Real GDP Growth\n    - 4 Crude Oil Production and Exports\n    - 5 Consumer Price Inflation\n    - 6 Broad Money Growth\n    - 7 Central Government Fiscal Balance\n    - 8 Central Government Total Revenue, Excluding Grants\n    - 9 Oil Exporters: Central Government Non-Oil Fiscal Balance\n    - 10 Oil Exporters: Central Government Non-Oil Revenue\n    - 11 General Government Total Expenditure and Net Lending\n    - 12 Total Government Debt\n    - 13 Exports of Goods and Services\n    - 14 Imports of Goods and Services\n    - 15 Current Account Balance (Billions of U.S. dollars)\n    - 16 Current Account Balance (Percent of GDP)\n    - 17 Gross Official Reserves\n    - 18 Total Gross External Debt\n    - 19 Capital Adequacy Ratios\n    - 20 Return on Assets\n    - 21 Nonperforming Loans\n\nRegional Economic Outlook: Middle East and Central Asia, October 2010 — Table of Contents\n\n---\n\n Content in this bundle\n\n- آفاق الاقتصاد الإقليـمي - منطقة الشرق الأوسط وآسيا الوسطى - أكتوبر 2010 -- الفصول 1-2\n  - آفاق الاقتصاد الإقليـمي - منطقة الشرق الأوسط وآسيا الوسطى - أكتوبر 2010 -- الفصول 1-2 (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - آفاق الاقتصاد الإقليـمي - منطقة الشرق الأوسط وآسيا الوسطى - أكتوبر 2010 -- الفصول 1-2 (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- آفاق الاقتصاد الإقليمي: منطقة الشرق الأوسط وآسيا الوسطى - أكتوبر 2010 - أضواء على أهم الأحداث\n  - آفاق الاقتصاد الإقليمي: منطقة الشرق الأوسط وآسيا الوسطى - أكتوبر 2010 - أضواء على أهم الأحداث (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - آفاق الاقتصاد الإقليمي: منطقة الشرق الأوسط وآسيا الوسطى - أكتوبر 2010 - أضواء على أهم الأحداث (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- آفاق الاقتصاد الإقليمي 2010 - الشرق الأوسط وآسيا الوسطى\n  - آفاق الاقتصاد الإقليمي 2010 - الشرق الأوسط وآسيا الوسطى (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - آفاق الاقتصاد الإقليمي 2010 - الشرق الأوسط وآسيا الوسطى (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- 2010年10月中东和中亚地区经济展望要点\n  - 2010年10月中东和中亚地区经济展望要点 (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - 2010年10月中东和中亚地区经济展望要点 (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- mreo1024chap12fpdf\n  - mreo1024chap12fpdf (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - mreo1024chap12fpdf (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Mreo1024hifpdf\n  - Mreo1024hifpdf (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - Mreo1024hifpdf (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Perspectives économiques régionales 2010 - Moyen-Orient et Asie Centrale, octobre 2010\n  - Perspectives économiques régionales 2010 - Moyen-Orient et Asie Centrale, octobre 2010 (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - Perspectives économiques régionales 2010 - Moyen-Orient et Asie Centrale, octobre 2010 (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Regional Economic Outlook:  Middle East and Central Asia --  Highlights; October 2010\n  - Regional Economic Outlook:  Middle East and Central Asia --  Highlights; October 2010 (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - Regional Economic Outlook:  Middle East and Central Asia --  Highlights; October 2010 (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Regional Economic Outlook — Fall 2010\n  - Regional Economic Outlook — Fall 2010 (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - Regional Economic Outlook — Fall 2010 (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Regional Economic Outlook: Middle East and Central Asia; October 2010.\n  - Regional Economic Outlook: Middle East and Central Asia; October 2010. (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - Regional Economic Outlook: Middle East and Central Asia; October 2010. (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Regional Economic Outlook: Caucasus and Central Asia Fall 2010\n  - Regional Economic Outlook: Caucasus and Central Asia Fall 2010 (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - Regional Economic Outlook: Caucasus and Central Asia Fall 2010 (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Кавказ и Центральная Азия. Проблемы после кризиса\n  - Кавказ и Центральная Азия. Проблемы после кризиса (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - Кавказ и Центральная Азия. Проблемы после кризиса (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Ближний Восток и Центральная Азия: Перспективы развития региональной экономики, октябрь 2010 года\n  - Ближний Восток и Центральная Азия: Перспективы развития региональной экономики, октябрь 2010 года (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - Ближний Восток и Центральная Азия: Перспективы развития региональной экономики, октябрь 2010 года (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Перспективы развития региональной экономики. Кавказ и Центральная Азия Осень 2010 года\n  - Перспективы развития региональной экономики. Кавказ и Центральная Азия Осень 2010 года (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - Перспективы развития региональной экономики. Кавказ и Центральная Азия Осень 2010 года (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n\n---\n\n References\n\n- Sign up to receive free e-mail notices when new series and/or country items are posted on the IMF website.\n- Modify your profile\n- Watch video:\nIMF Says Growth Rebounds in Middle East, North Africa\n- Is There a Silver Lining to Sluggish Credit Growth in the Gulf Countries?\n- More than 18 Million Jobs Needed!\n- Raising Competitiveness: Recipe for Tapping into the Middle East’s Growth Potential\n- IMF Sees Growth Rebounding in Middle East and North Africa, Policy Focus to Shift to Structural Priorities\n- Growth Rebounds in Middle East, North Africa\n- https://www.imf.org/en/publications/reo/meca/issues/2017/01/07/10/mreo1024MENAP.ppt\n- https://www.imf.org/external/french/pubs/ft/reo/2010/mcd/10/mreo1024MENAPf.ppt\n- عربي\n- Watch video:\nIMF Says Recovery Takes Hold in Caucasus and Central Asia\n- Addressing External Vulnerabilities in the Oil-Importing Countries of the Caucasus and Central Asia\n- IMF Regional Outlook Sees Recovery Taking Hold in Caucasus and Central Asia\n- Recovery Takes Hold in Caucasus, Central Asia\n- https://www.imf.org/en/publications/reo/meca/issues/2017/01/07/10/mreo1028CCA.ppt\n- https://www.imf.org/external/russian/pubs/ft/reo/mcd/2010/10/mreo1028CCAr.ppt\n- Regional Economic Outlooks\n- World Economic Outlook:\n- Ordering Information\n- Adobe Acrobat Reader\n- https://www.imf.org/en/home\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/reo/meca/issues/2017/01/07/regional-economic-outlook-middle-east-and-central-asia7"
    }
  ],
  "bullets": [
    "[Markdown version](/en/publications/reo/meca/issues/2017/01/07/regional-economic-outlook-middle-east-and-central-asia7/index.md)",
    "[Structured JSON version](/en/publications/reo/meca/issues/2017/01/07/regional-economic-outlook-middle-east-and-central-asia7/index.json)",
    "[Bundle manifest](/en/publications/reo/meca/issues/2017/01/07/regional-economic-outlook-middle-east-and-central-asia7/bundle-manifest.json)",
    "Published: October 24, 2010",
    "Series: Middle East and Central Asia",
    "The October 2010 Regional Economic Outlook: Middle East and Central Asia reports on the regional implications of the global economic recovery and presents key policy challenges and recommendations.",
    "With the rebound in crude oil prices and production, the oil-exporting countries of the Middle East and North Africa will see visible improvements in their fiscal and external balances in 2010–11.",
    "Going forward, further efforts at financial sector development and economic diversification top the agenda.",
    "The region’s oil-importing countries, which include Afghanistan and Pakistan, have weathered the global recession well; Pakistan, however, suffered from devastating floods in July/August, which will hold back growth this year.",
    "The overriding longer-term challenges for oil-importing countries are to raise growth and provide jobs for expanding populations.",
    "In the Caucasus and Central Asia, recovery has gained momentum in virtually all countries, aided by the lagged effect of fiscal stimulus and a favorable external environment.",
    "Exports are picking up, and remittances are rebounding, though at a slowing pace.",
    "Despite the broadly positive outlook, risks are largely on the downside.",
    "A priority is to resolve banking sector problems and, in some countries, to reduce external debt and current account deficits.",
    "Headline: MENAP Oil Exporters: Well Placed to Focus on Medium-Term Challenges",
    "Findings:",
    "Policy priorities:",
    "Figures and items referenced (selection):",
    "Headline: MENAP Oil Importers: Adjusting to New Global Growth Patterns",
    "Findings:",
    "Specific issues:",
    "Figures and items referenced (selection):",
    "Headline: The Caucasus and Central Asia: Challenges Beyond the Crisis",
    "Findings:",
    "Annex and box highlights:",
    "Figures and items referenced (selection):",
    "Boxes across chapters include:",
    "Annexes:",
    "Figures listed include thematic and numbered items such as:",
    "Tables and statistical appendix tables include:",
    "**آفاق الاقتصاد الإقليـمي - منطقة الشرق الأوسط وآسيا الوسطى - أكتوبر 2010 -- الفصول 1-2**",
    "**آفاق الاقتصاد الإقليمي: منطقة الشرق الأوسط وآسيا الوسطى - أكتوبر 2010 - أضواء على أهم الأحداث**",
    "**آفاق الاقتصاد الإقليمي 2010 - الشرق الأوسط وآسيا الوسطى**",
    "**2010年10月中东和中亚地区经济展望要点**",
    "**_mreo1024chap12fpdf**",
    "**Mreo1024hifpdf**",
    "**Perspectives économiques régionales 2010 - Moyen-Orient et Asie Centrale, octobre 2010**",
    "**Regional Economic Outlook:  Middle East and Central Asia --  Highlights; October 2010**",
    "**Regional Economic Outlook — Fall 2010**",
    "**Regional Economic Outlook: Middle East and Central Asia; October 2010.**",
    "**Regional Economic Outlook: Caucasus and Central Asia Fall 2010**",
    "**Кавказ и Центральная Азия. Проблемы после кризиса**",
    "**Ближний Восток и Центральная Азия: Перспективы развития региональной экономики, октябрь 2010 года**",
    "**Перспективы развития региональной экономики. Кавказ и Центральная Азия Осень 2010 года**",
    "[Sign up to receive free e-mail notices when new series and/or country items are posted on the IMF website.](https://www.imf.org/en/email-subscription/index)",
    "[Modify your profile](https://www.imf.org/en/email-subscription/login)",
    "[Watch video:",
    "[Is There a Silver Lining to Sluggish Credit Growth in the Gulf Countries?](http://blog-imfdirect.imf.org/2010/12/07/sluggish-credit-growth-in-the-gcc/)",
    "[More than 18 Million Jobs Needed!](http://blog-imfdirect.imf.org/2010/10/31/more-than-18-million-jobs-needed/)",
    "[Raising Competitiveness: Recipe for Tapping into the Middle East’s Growth Potential](http://blog-imfdirect.imf.org/2010/10/29/raising-competitiveness-recipe-for-tapping-into-the-middle-east%e2%80%99s-growth-potential/)",
    "[IMF Sees Growth Rebounding in Middle East and North Africa, Policy Focus to Shift to Structural Priorities](https://www.imf.org/external/np/sec/pr/2010/pr10395.htm)",
    "[Growth Rebounds in Middle East, North Africa](https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/survey/so/2010/CAR102110A.htm)",
    "[https://www.imf.org/en/publications/reo/meca/issues/2017/01/07/10/mreo1024MENAP.ppt](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/reo/meca/issues/2017/01/07/10/mreo1024MENAP.ppt)",
    "[https://www.imf.org/external/french/pubs/ft/reo/2010/mcd/10/mreo1024MENAPf.ppt](https://www.imf.org/external/french/pubs/ft/reo/2010/mcd/10/mreo1024MENAPf.ppt)",
    "[عربي](https://www.imf.org/external/arabic/pubs/ft/reo/2010/mcd/10/mreo1024MENAPa.ppt)",
    "[Watch video:",
    "[Addressing External Vulnerabilities in the Oil-Importing Countries of the Caucasus and Central Asia](http://blog-imfdirect.imf.org/2010/10/28/addressing-external-vulnerabilities-in-the-oil-importing-countries-of-the-caucasus-and-central-asia/)",
    "[IMF Regional Outlook Sees Recovery Taking Hold in Caucasus and Central Asia](https://www.imf.org/external/np/sec/pr/2010/pr10402.htm)",
    "[Recovery Takes Hold in Caucasus, Central Asia](https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/survey/so/2010/CAR102710A.htm)",
    "[https://www.imf.org/en/publications/reo/meca/issues/2017/01/07/10/mreo1028CCA.ppt](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/reo/meca/issues/2017/01/07/10/mreo1028CCA.ppt)",
    "[https://www.imf.org/external/russian/pubs/ft/reo/mcd/2010/10/mreo1028CCAr.ppt](https://www.imf.org/external/russian/pubs/ft/reo/mcd/2010/10/mreo1028CCAr.ppt)",
    "[Regional Economic Outlooks](https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/reo/reorepts.aspx)",
    "[World Economic Outlook:](https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2010/02/index.htm)",
    "[Ordering Information](https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.cfm?sk=23547.0)",
    "[Adobe Acrobat Reader](https://www.imf.org/adobe)"
  ],
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