## Regional Economic Outlook: Middle East and Central Asia, October 2010 -- Table of Contents

_Middle East and Central Asia, October 24, 2010_

## Source details

**Canonical URL:** [Regional Economic Outlook: Middle East and Central Asia, October 2010 -- Table of Contents](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/reo/meca/issues/2017/01/07/regional-economic-outlook-middle-east-and-central-asia7)

## Other formats

- [Markdown version](/en/publications/reo/meca/issues/2017/01/07/regional-economic-outlook-middle-east-and-central-asia7/index.md)
- [Structured JSON version](/en/publications/reo/meca/issues/2017/01/07/regional-economic-outlook-middle-east-and-central-asia7/index.json)
- [Bundle manifest](/en/publications/reo/meca/issues/2017/01/07/regional-economic-outlook-middle-east-and-central-asia7/bundle-manifest.json)

## Bibliographic details
- Published: October 24, 2010
- Series: Middle East and Central Asia

---

### Overview
- The October 2010 Regional Economic Outlook: Middle East and Central Asia reports on the regional implications of the global economic recovery and presents key policy challenges and recommendations.
- With the rebound in crude oil prices and production, the oil-exporting countries of the Middle East and North Africa will see visible improvements in their fiscal and external balances in 2010–11.
- Going forward, further efforts at financial sector development and economic diversification top the agenda.
- The region’s oil-importing countries, which include Afghanistan and Pakistan, have weathered the global recession well; Pakistan, however, suffered from devastating floods in July/August, which will hold back growth this year.
- The overriding longer-term challenges for oil-importing countries are to raise growth and provide jobs for expanding populations.
- In the Caucasus and Central Asia, recovery has gained momentum in virtually all countries, aided by the lagged effect of fiscal stimulus and a favorable external environment.
- Exports are picking up, and remittances are rebounding, though at a slowing pace.
- Despite the broadly positive outlook, risks are largely on the downside.
- A priority is to resolve banking sector problems and, in some countries, to reduce external debt and current account deficits.

### MENAP Oil Exporters: Key Findings and Policy Directions (Chapter 1)
- Headline: MENAP Oil Exporters: Well Placed to Focus on Medium-Term Challenges
- Findings:
  - The postcrisis recovery continues.
  - There is less pressure on government budgets.
  - Accommodative monetary policy may soon have to shift gears.
  - Break-even oil prices in 2010 are explicitly referenced among figures.
- Policy priorities:
  - Refocusing medium-term fiscal policy.
  - Moving on financial sector development.
- Figures and items referenced (selection):
  - Oil Sector Leads the Way in Growth Recovery
  - Recuperating Stock Markets (Figure 1.5)
  - Some Signs of Inflationary Pressures (Figure 1.6)
  - Better Fiscal Balances (Figure 1.7)
  - Fiscal Stances Vary Widely (Figure 1.8)
  - Credit and Deposits (Figure 1.9)
  - Break-Even Oil Prices in 2010 (Figure 1.10)

### MENAP Oil Importers: Key Findings and Policy Directions (Chapter 2)
- Headline: MENAP Oil Importers: Adjusting to New Global Growth Patterns
- Findings:
  - Recovery gathers momentum.
  - Fiscal consolidation under way.
  - Monetary policy can remain accommodative.
  - Current growth is too low to address unemployment.
  - Greater competitiveness is key to lifting growth.
- Specific issues:
  - Pakistan’s unprecedented floods in July/August with significant social and economic impact (Box 2.1).
  - Annex 2.1 title: 18 Million Jobs Needed: Raising Growth and Labor Market Responsiveness.
- Figures and items referenced (selection):
  - Inflation Holding Steady (Figure 2.5)
  - Currencies Mostly Appreciating (Figure 2.6)
  - Lagging Output and Export Growth (Figure 2.7)
  - Growth Differentials Explained (Figure 2.8)
  - Competitiveness and Doing Business Indicators (Figure 2.9)
  - Exports and Remittances Pick Up
  - Growth Gains Ground, but Remains below Precrisis Levels
  - Disposable Income Has Not Yet Recovered in Many Countries
  - Private-Sector Credit Growth Remains Largely Subdued

### The Caucasus and Central Asia: Key Findings and Policy Directions (Chapter 3)
- Headline: The Caucasus and Central Asia: Challenges Beyond the Crisis
- Findings:
  - Recovery gains traction across virtually all countries.
  - Banking sectors are not out of the woods, yet.
  - Macroeconomic policies should adapt as recovery gathers momentum.
  - Fiscal policy should aim for consolidation in 2011.
  - Monetary policy can remain accommodative, mostly.
  - Addressing external vulnerabilities is a priority.
- Annex and box highlights:
  - Annex 3.1: Strengthening Monetary Transmission in the CCA
  - Box 3.1: Russia Recovers
  - Box 3.2: Political and Ethnic Turmoil Leaves its Mark on the Kyrgyz Economy
  - Box 3.3: Wheat Price Woes?
  - Box 3.4: The Impact of the Belarus–Kazakhstan–Russian Federation Customs Union
- Figures and items referenced (selection):
  - High, and Mostly Rising Levels of Nonperforming Loans (Figure 3.5)
  - Grants to Return to Precrisis Levels in Oil and Gas Importers (Figure 3.6)
  - Public Debt Has Risen in Oil and Gas Importers (Figure 3.7)
  - Trimming Down Deficits in Oil and Gas Importers (Figure 3.8)
  - Oil and Gas Exporters: Time for Fiscal Consolidation (Figure 3.9)
  - High Current Account Deficits in Oil and Gas Importers (Figure 3.10)
  - Foreign Direct Investment Still in Short Supply in Oil and Gas Importers (Figure 3.11)
  - Oil and Gas Importers’ External Debt Is High and Rising (Figure 3.12)
  - High Levels of Dollarization (Figure 3.13)

### Boxes, Annexes, and Special Topics
- Boxes across chapters include:
  - 1.1 Dependence on Oil: Cross-Country Comparison
  - 1.2 Update on Dubai World’s Debt Restructuring
  - 1.3 Recent Inflation Dynamics in GCC Countries
  - 1.4 Financial Sector Policy Responses to the Crisis Vary With Different Initial Conditions
  - 2.1 Unprecedented Floods in Pakistan: The Social and Economic Impact
  - 2.2 Why Is Inflation High in Egypt and Pakistan?
  - 2.3 Trade Patterns and Determinants in MENAP Oil-Importing Countries
  - 3.1 Russia Recovers
  - 3.2 Political and Ethnic Turmoil Leaves its Mark on the Kyrgyz Economy
  - 3.3 Wheat Price Woes?
  - 3.4 The Impact of the Belarus–Kazakhstan–Russian Federation Customs Union
  - 2.4 Stock Markets Still Far from Peak

- Annexes:
  - Annex 2.1. 18 Million Jobs Needed: Raising Growth and Labor Market Responsiveness
  - Annex 3.1. Strengthening Monetary Transmission in the CCA

### Data, Figures, and Tables Inventory (selected)
- Figures listed include thematic and numbered items such as:
  - Oil Sector Leads the Way in Growth Recovery
  - Exports Outpace Imports
  - Current Account Balances Improve Across the Board
  - More Favorable Financing Conditions, for the Most Part
  - 1.5 Recuperating Stock Markets
  - 1.6 Some Signs of Inflationary Pressures
  - 1.7 Better Fiscal Balances
  - 1.8 Fiscal Stances Vary Widely
  - 1.9 Credit and Deposits
  - 1.10 Break-Even Oil Prices in 2010
  - 2.5 Inflation Holding Steady
  - 2.6 Currencies Mostly Appreciating
  - 2.7 Lagging Output and Export Growth
  - 2.8 Growth Differentials Explained
  - 2.9 Competitiveness and Doing Business Indicators
  - 3.5 High, and Mostly Rising Levels of Nonperforming Loans
  - 3.6 Grants to Return to Precrisis Levels in Oil and Gas Importers
  - 3.7 Public Debt Has Risen in Oil and Gas Importers
  - 3.8 Trimming Down Deficits in Oil and Gas Importers
  - 3.9 Oil and Gas Exporters: Time for Fiscal Consolidation
  - 3.10 High Current Account Deficits in Oil and Gas Importers
  - 3.11 Foreign Direct Investment Still in Short Supply in Oil and Gas Importers
  - 3.12 Oil and Gas Importers’ External Debt Is High and Rising
  - 3.13 High Levels of Dollarization

- Tables and statistical appendix tables include:
  - Table: Fiscal Consolidation Measures Planned for 2011
  - Statistical Appendix Tables 1 through 21, including:
    - 1 Real GDP Growth
    - 2 Nominal GDP
    - 3 Oil and Non-Oil Real GDP Growth
    - 4 Crude Oil Production and Exports
    - 5 Consumer Price Inflation
    - 6 Broad Money Growth
    - 7 Central Government Fiscal Balance
    - 8 Central Government Total Revenue, Excluding Grants
    - 9 Oil Exporters: Central Government Non-Oil Fiscal Balance
    - 10 Oil Exporters: Central Government Non-Oil Revenue
    - 11 General Government Total Expenditure and Net Lending
    - 12 Total Government Debt
    - 13 Exports of Goods and Services
    - 14 Imports of Goods and Services
    - 15 Current Account Balance (Billions of U.S. dollars)
    - 16 Current Account Balance (Percent of GDP)
    - 17 Gross Official Reserves
    - 18 Total Gross External Debt
    - 19 Capital Adequacy Ratios
    - 20 Return on Assets
    - 21 Nonperforming Loans

_Regional Economic Outlook: Middle East and Central Asia, October 2010 — Table of Contents_

---

## Content in this bundle

- **آفاق الاقتصاد الإقليـمي - منطقة الشرق الأوسط وآسيا الوسطى - أكتوبر 2010 -- الفصول 1-2**
  - [آفاق الاقتصاد الإقليـمي - منطقة الشرق الأوسط وآسيا الوسطى - أكتوبر 2010 -- الفصول 1-2 (Markdown version)](/-/media/websites/imf/imported-flagship-issues/external/arabic/pubs/ft/reo/2010/mcd/10/_mreo1024chap12apdf.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"}
  - [آفاق الاقتصاد الإقليـمي - منطقة الشرق الأوسط وآسيا الوسطى - أكتوبر 2010 -- الفصول 1-2 (PDF)](/-/media/websites/imf/imported-flagship-issues/external/arabic/pubs/ft/reo/2010/mcd/10/_mreo1024chap12apdf.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"}
- **آفاق الاقتصاد الإقليمي: منطقة الشرق الأوسط وآسيا الوسطى - أكتوبر 2010 - أضواء على أهم الأحداث**
  - [آفاق الاقتصاد الإقليمي: منطقة الشرق الأوسط وآسيا الوسطى - أكتوبر 2010 - أضواء على أهم الأحداث (Markdown version)](/-/media/websites/imf/imported-flagship-issues/external/arabic/pubs/ft/reo/2010/mcd/10/_mreo1024hiapdf.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"}
  - [آفاق الاقتصاد الإقليمي: منطقة الشرق الأوسط وآسيا الوسطى - أكتوبر 2010 - أضواء على أهم الأحداث (PDF)](/-/media/websites/imf/imported-flagship-issues/external/arabic/pubs/ft/reo/2010/mcd/10/_mreo1024hiapdf.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"}
- **آفاق الاقتصاد الإقليمي 2010 - الشرق الأوسط وآسيا الوسطى**
  - [آفاق الاقتصاد الإقليمي 2010 - الشرق الأوسط وآسيا الوسطى (Markdown version)](/-/media/websites/imf/imported-flagship-issues/external/arabic/pubs/ft/reo/2010/mcd/10/_mreo1024menapapdf.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"}
  - [آفاق الاقتصاد الإقليمي 2010 - الشرق الأوسط وآسيا الوسطى (PDF)](/-/media/websites/imf/imported-flagship-issues/external/arabic/pubs/ft/reo/2010/mcd/10/_mreo1024menapapdf.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"}
- **2010年10月中东和中亚地区经济展望要点**
  - [2010年10月中东和中亚地区经济展望要点 (Markdown version)](/-/media/websites/imf/imported-flagship-issues/external/chinese/pubs/ft/reo/2010/mcd/10/_mreo1024hicpdf.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"}
  - [2010年10月中东和中亚地区经济展望要点 (PDF)](/-/media/websites/imf/imported-flagship-issues/external/chinese/pubs/ft/reo/2010/mcd/10/_mreo1024hicpdf.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"}
- **_mreo1024chap12fpdf**
  - [_mreo1024chap12fpdf (Markdown version)](/-/media/websites/imf/imported-flagship-issues/external/french/pubs/ft/reo/2010/mcd/10/_mreo1024chap12fpdf.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"}
  - [_mreo1024chap12fpdf (PDF)](/-/media/websites/imf/imported-flagship-issues/external/french/pubs/ft/reo/2010/mcd/10/_mreo1024chap12fpdf.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"}
- **Mreo1024hifpdf**
  - [Mreo1024hifpdf (Markdown version)](/-/media/websites/imf/imported-flagship-issues/external/french/pubs/ft/reo/2010/mcd/10/_mreo1024hifpdf.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"}
  - [Mreo1024hifpdf (PDF)](/-/media/websites/imf/imported-flagship-issues/external/french/pubs/ft/reo/2010/mcd/10/_mreo1024hifpdf.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"}
- **Perspectives économiques régionales 2010 - Moyen-Orient et Asie Centrale, octobre 2010**
  - [Perspectives économiques régionales 2010 - Moyen-Orient et Asie Centrale, octobre 2010 (Markdown version)](/-/media/websites/imf/imported-flagship-issues/external/french/pubs/ft/reo/2010/mcd/10/_mreo1024menapfpdf.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"}
  - [Perspectives économiques régionales 2010 - Moyen-Orient et Asie Centrale, octobre 2010 (PDF)](/-/media/websites/imf/imported-flagship-issues/external/french/pubs/ft/reo/2010/mcd/10/_mreo1024menapfpdf.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"}
- **Regional Economic Outlook:  Middle East and Central Asia --  Highlights; October 2010**
  - [Regional Economic Outlook:  Middle East and Central Asia --  Highlights; October 2010 (Markdown version)](/-/media/websites/imf/imported-flagship-issues/external/pubs/ft/reo/2010/mcd/eng/10/_mreo1024hipdf.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"}
  - [Regional Economic Outlook:  Middle East and Central Asia --  Highlights; October 2010 (PDF)](/-/media/websites/imf/imported-flagship-issues/external/pubs/ft/reo/2010/mcd/eng/10/_mreo1024hipdf.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"}
- **Regional Economic Outlook — Fall 2010**
  - [Regional Economic Outlook — Fall 2010 (Markdown version)](/-/media/websites/imf/imported-flagship-issues/external/pubs/ft/reo/2010/mcd/eng/10/_mreo1024menappdf.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"}
  - [Regional Economic Outlook — Fall 2010 (PDF)](/-/media/websites/imf/imported-flagship-issues/external/pubs/ft/reo/2010/mcd/eng/10/_mreo1024menappdf.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"}
- **Regional Economic Outlook: Middle East and Central Asia; October 2010.**
  - [Regional Economic Outlook: Middle East and Central Asia; October 2010. (Markdown version)](/-/media/websites/imf/imported-flagship-issues/external/pubs/ft/reo/2010/mcd/eng/10/_mreo1024pdf.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"}
  - [Regional Economic Outlook: Middle East and Central Asia; October 2010. (PDF)](/-/media/websites/imf/imported-flagship-issues/external/pubs/ft/reo/2010/mcd/eng/10/_mreo1024pdf.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"}
- **Regional Economic Outlook: Caucasus and Central Asia Fall 2010**
  - [Regional Economic Outlook: Caucasus and Central Asia Fall 2010 (Markdown version)](/-/media/websites/imf/imported-flagship-issues/external/pubs/ft/reo/2010/mcd/eng/10/_mreo1028ccapdf.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"}
  - [Regional Economic Outlook: Caucasus and Central Asia Fall 2010 (PDF)](/-/media/websites/imf/imported-flagship-issues/external/pubs/ft/reo/2010/mcd/eng/10/_mreo1028ccapdf.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"}
- **Кавказ и Центральная Азия. Проблемы после кризиса**
  - [Кавказ и Центральная Азия. Проблемы после кризиса (Markdown version)](/-/media/websites/imf/imported-flagship-issues/external/russian/pubs/ft/reo/mcd/2010/10/_mreo1024chap3rpdf.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"}
  - [Кавказ и Центральная Азия. Проблемы после кризиса (PDF)](/-/media/websites/imf/imported-flagship-issues/external/russian/pubs/ft/reo/mcd/2010/10/_mreo1024chap3rpdf.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"}
- **Ближний Восток и Центральная Азия: Перспективы развития региональной экономики, октябрь 2010 года**
  - [Ближний Восток и Центральная Азия: Перспективы развития региональной экономики, октябрь 2010 года (Markdown version)](/-/media/websites/imf/imported-flagship-issues/external/russian/pubs/ft/reo/mcd/2010/10/_mreo1024hirpdf.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"}
  - [Ближний Восток и Центральная Азия: Перспективы развития региональной экономики, октябрь 2010 года (PDF)](/-/media/websites/imf/imported-flagship-issues/external/russian/pubs/ft/reo/mcd/2010/10/_mreo1024hirpdf.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"}
- **Перспективы развития региональной экономики. Кавказ и Центральная Азия Осень 2010 года**
  - [Перспективы развития региональной экономики. Кавказ и Центральная Азия Осень 2010 года (Markdown version)](/-/media/websites/imf/imported-flagship-issues/external/russian/pubs/ft/reo/mcd/2010/10/_mreo1028ccarpdf.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"}
  - [Перспективы развития региональной экономики. Кавказ и Центральная Азия Осень 2010 года (PDF)](/-/media/websites/imf/imported-flagship-issues/external/russian/pubs/ft/reo/mcd/2010/10/_mreo1028ccarpdf.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"}

---

## References

- [Sign up to receive free e-mail notices when new series and/or country items are posted on the IMF website.](https://www.imf.org/en/email-subscription/index)
- [Modify your profile](https://www.imf.org/en/email-subscription/login)
- [Watch video:
IMF Says Growth Rebounds in Middle East, North Africa](http://www.imf.org/external/mmedia/view.aspx?vid=645438011001)
- [Is There a Silver Lining to Sluggish Credit Growth in the Gulf Countries?](http://blog-imfdirect.imf.org/2010/12/07/sluggish-credit-growth-in-the-gcc/)
- [More than 18 Million Jobs Needed!](http://blog-imfdirect.imf.org/2010/10/31/more-than-18-million-jobs-needed/)
- [Raising Competitiveness: Recipe for Tapping into the Middle East’s Growth Potential](http://blog-imfdirect.imf.org/2010/10/29/raising-competitiveness-recipe-for-tapping-into-the-middle-east%e2%80%99s-growth-potential/)
- [IMF Sees Growth Rebounding in Middle East and North Africa, Policy Focus to Shift to Structural Priorities](https://www.imf.org/external/np/sec/pr/2010/pr10395.htm)
- [Growth Rebounds in Middle East, North Africa](https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/survey/so/2010/CAR102110A.htm)
- [https://www.imf.org/en/publications/reo/meca/issues/2017/01/07/10/mreo1024MENAP.ppt](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/reo/meca/issues/2017/01/07/10/mreo1024MENAP.ppt)
- [https://www.imf.org/external/french/pubs/ft/reo/2010/mcd/10/mreo1024MENAPf.ppt](https://www.imf.org/external/french/pubs/ft/reo/2010/mcd/10/mreo1024MENAPf.ppt)
- [عربي](https://www.imf.org/external/arabic/pubs/ft/reo/2010/mcd/10/mreo1024MENAPa.ppt)
- [Watch video:
IMF Says Recovery Takes Hold in Caucasus and Central Asia](http://www.imf.org/external/mmedia/view.aspx?vid=651003664001)
- [Addressing External Vulnerabilities in the Oil-Importing Countries of the Caucasus and Central Asia](http://blog-imfdirect.imf.org/2010/10/28/addressing-external-vulnerabilities-in-the-oil-importing-countries-of-the-caucasus-and-central-asia/)
- [IMF Regional Outlook Sees Recovery Taking Hold in Caucasus and Central Asia](https://www.imf.org/external/np/sec/pr/2010/pr10402.htm)
- [Recovery Takes Hold in Caucasus, Central Asia](https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/survey/so/2010/CAR102710A.htm)
- [https://www.imf.org/en/publications/reo/meca/issues/2017/01/07/10/mreo1028CCA.ppt](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/reo/meca/issues/2017/01/07/10/mreo1028CCA.ppt)
- [https://www.imf.org/external/russian/pubs/ft/reo/mcd/2010/10/mreo1028CCAr.ppt](https://www.imf.org/external/russian/pubs/ft/reo/mcd/2010/10/mreo1028CCAr.ppt)
- [Regional Economic Outlooks](https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/reo/reorepts.aspx)
- [World Economic Outlook:](https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2010/02/index.htm)
- [Ordering Information](https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/longres.cfm?sk=23547.0)
- [Adobe Acrobat Reader](https://www.imf.org/adobe)

_Source: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/reo/meca/issues/2017/01/07/regional-economic-outlook-middle-east-and-central-asia7_