{
  "title": "Regional Economic Outlook: Middle East and Central Asia, November 2012 -- Table of Contents",
  "publication": "Middle East and Central Asia, November 11, 2012",
  "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/en/publications/reo/meca/issues/2017/01/07/regional-economic-outlook-middle-east-and-central-asia8",
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  "summary": "The outlook for the Middle East and North Africa region is mixed.",
  "sections": [
    {
      "heading": "Regional outlook summary",
      "content": "- The outlook for the Middle East and North Africa region is mixed.\n- Oil-importing countries are witnessing tepid growth, and the moderate recovery expected in 2013 is subject to heightened downside risks.\n- For the Arab countries in transition, ongoing political transitions weigh on growth; policy buffers are largely eroded, increasing the urgency of macroeconomic stabilization and growth-oriented reforms.\n- The region's oil exporters are expected to post solid growth in 2012, in part due to Libya's better-than-expected postwar recovery.\n- In the countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council, robust growth is supported by expansionary fiscal policies and accommodative monetary conditions.\n- In the Caucasus and Central Asia, the outlook remains favorable, reflecting high oil prices, supportive commodity prices, remittance inflows, and moderate direct exposure to Europe.\n- The positive outlook for CCA provides an opportunity to strengthen policy buffers to prepare for downside risks."
    },
    {
      "heading": "MENAP: Oil exporters — key findings and risks",
      "content": "- Oil GDP Growth Falling, Non-Oil GDP Growth Healthy.\n- Wage Increases Weaken Public Finances.\n- A Sustained Large Drop in Oil Prices Is a Key Risk.\n- Expenditure Restraint Would Increase Resilience.\n- Current Account Surpluses Sensitive to Oil Price.\n- Inflation Developments Mixed.\n- Renewed Bond Issuance.\n- Reforms for More Inclusive Growth.\n- Annexes and special topics:\n  - Annex 1.1. The Natural Gas Market: Where Is It Heading?\n    - Natural Gas Supply Is Meeting Demand.\n    - The Increasing Importance of Shale Gas.\n    - Benefits of Indexation to Oil, Regional Segmentation.\n  - Annex 1.2. Inward Spillovers to MENA Countries from a GDP Shock in G3 Countries:\n    - Shock to Chinese GDP.\n    - Shock to U.S. GDP.\n    - Shock to Euro Area GDP."
    },
    {
      "heading": "MENAP: Oil importers — key findings and policy priorities",
      "content": "- Downturn Continues in 2012, Possible Moderate Recovery in 2013.\n- Inflation Stable in Most Countries, But Concerns Rising.\n- External Deficits Widening, Reserve Buffers Diminished.\n- Need for Greater Exchange Rate Flexibility.\n- Rising Subsidies, Deteriorating Fiscal Positions.\n- Rising Debt Levels, Consolidation Necessary.\n- Financial Sector: Mixed Performance.\n- Downside Risks Are Elevated.\n- Need to Restore Macroeconomic Sustainability.\n- Minimizing the Growth & Social Impact of Fiscal Consolidation.\n- Structural Reforms Needed to Enhance Inclusive Growth.\n- Annex 2.1. MENAP & CCA Countries: Highly Vulnerable to Food Price Hikes."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Caucasus & Central Asia (CCA): resilience and uncertainties",
      "content": "- Economic Activity Resilient, but Uncertainty Remains.\n- Oil and Gas Exporters: benefiting from high oil prices.\n- Oil and Gas Importers: benefiting from supportive commodity prices and remittance inflows.\n- Downside Risks: Moderate Impact from Euro Area Crisis.\n- Annex 3.1. Measuring the Informal Economy in the Caucasus & Central Asia:\n  - The Size of Informality.\n  - What Are the Causes and Indicators of Informality?\n  - Policy Recommendations to Reduce Informal Economies."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Policy recommendations (cross-regional priorities)",
      "content": "- Strengthen policy buffers while opportunity exists in CCA.\n- Implement expenditure restraint in oil exporters to increase resilience to oil price drops.\n- Restore macroeconomic sustainability in MENAP oil importers through consolidation and exchange rate flexibility.\n- Protect the poor through safety nets and minimize growth and social impacts of fiscal consolidation.\n- Advance growth-oriented structural reforms to foster inclusive growth and private-sector job creation."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Chapters, boxes, figures, tables, and statistical appendices (selected)",
      "content": "- Chapters and highlights:\n  - MENAP Highlights; CCA Highlights.\n  - Chapters 1-2 and Chapter 3 focus areas.\n- Notable boxes include:\n  - 1.1 Libya: Moving Beyond the Revolution.\n  - 1.2 What Is the 'Right' Surplus for the GCC?\n  - 2.1 Syria's Crisis: Domestic Economic Impact & Regional Spillovers.\n  - 2.6 Is There Scope for Growth-Friendly Fiscal Consolidation in MENAP Countries?\n  - 3.1 The Kyrgyz Republic: Emerging from a Domestic Crisis.\n- Figures include country- and theme-specific charts such as:\n  - 1.1 2012 GDP Growth Boosted by Libya.\n  - 1.2 Non-Oil GDP Growth Healthy.\n  - 1.6 Fiscal Balances Sensitive to Oil Prices.\n  - 2.3 Weak Recovery in 2013.\n  - 3.6 Current Account Balance.\n- Tables and statistical appendices cover selected economic indicators for:\n  - MENAP Region: Selected Economic Indicators, 2000–13.\n  - MENAP Oil Exporters: Selected Economic Indicators.\n  - MENAP Oil Importers: Selected Economic Indicators.\n  - CCA Region: Selected Economic Indicators, 2000–13.\n  - Detailed statistical appendix tables 1 through 26 (Real GDP Growth; Nominal GDP; Oil & Non-Oil Real GDP Growth; Crude Oil & Natural Gas Production; Breakeven Oil Prices; Consumer Price Infl ation; Broad Money Growth; Central Government Net Lending/Borrowing; Total Government Gross Debt; Gross Offi cial Reserves; Capital Adequacy Ratios; Nonperforming Loans; etc.).\n\nRegional Economic Outlook: Middle East and Central Asia, November 2012 — Table of Contents\n\n---\n\n Content in this bundle\n\n- menap1112ch12apdf\n  - menap1112ch12apdf (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - menap1112ch12apdf (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- أضواء على أهم الأحداث لآفاق الاقتصاد الإقليمي  في الشرق الأوسط وشمال إفريقيا وأفغانستان وباكستان\n  - أضواء على أهم الأحداث لآفاق الاقتصاد الإقليمي  في الشرق الأوسط وشمال إفريقيا وأفغانستان وباكستان (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - أضواء على أهم الأحداث لآفاق الاقتصاد الإقليمي  في الشرق الأوسط وشمال إفريقيا وأفغانستان وباكستان (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- عرض عن  آفاق الاقتصاد الإقليمي في الشرق الأوسط وشمال إفريقيا\n  - عرض عن  آفاق الاقتصاد الإقليمي في الشرق الأوسط وشمال إفريقيا (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - عرض عن  آفاق الاقتصاد الإقليمي في الشرق الأوسط وشمال إفريقيا (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- أضواء على أهم الأحداث لآفاق الاقتصاد الإقليمي  في الشرق الأوسط وشمال إفريقيا وأفغانستان وباكستان\n  - أضواء على أهم الأحداث لآفاق الاقتصاد الإقليمي  في الشرق الأوسط وشمال إفريقيا وأفغانستان وباكستان (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - أضواء على أهم الأحداث لآفاق الاقتصاد الإقليمي  في الشرق الأوسط وشمال إفريقيا وأفغانستان وباكستان (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- 高加索和中亚：要点\n  - 高加索和中亚：要点 (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - 高加索和中亚：要点 (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Perspectives économiques du Moyen-Orient, Afrique du Nord, Afghanistan et Pakistan: Chapitres 1 & 2\n  - Perspectives économiques du Moyen-Orient, Afrique du Nord, Afghanistan et Pakistan: Chapitres 1 & 2 (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - Perspectives économiques du Moyen-Orient, Afrique du Nord, Afghanistan et Pakistan: Chapitres 1 & 2 (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Les Principaux points des perspectives économiques de la région Moyen-Orient et Afrique du Nord\n  - Les Principaux points des perspectives économiques de la région Moyen-Orient et Afrique du Nord (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - Les Principaux points des perspectives économiques de la région Moyen-Orient et Afrique du Nord (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Presentation des Perspectives économiques régionales du Moyen-Orient et de l’Afrique du Nord\n  - Presentation des Perspectives économiques régionales du Moyen-Orient et de l’Afrique du Nord (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - Presentation des Perspectives économiques régionales du Moyen-Orient et de l’Afrique du Nord (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Les Principaux points des perspectives économiques de la région Moyen-Orient et Afrique du Nord\n  - Les Principaux points des perspectives économiques de la région Moyen-Orient et Afrique du Nord (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - Les Principaux points des perspectives économiques de la région Moyen-Orient et Afrique du Nord (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- КОА аймағының басты мəселелері - Кавказ жəне Орталық Азия\n  - КОА аймағының басты мəселелері - Кавказ жəне Орталық Азия (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - КОА аймағының басты мəселелері - Кавказ жəне Орталық Азия (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Highlights on The Caucasus and Central Asia\n  - Highlights on The Caucasus and Central Asia (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - Highlights on The Caucasus and Central Asia (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Presentation on Caucasus and Central Asia Regional Economic Outlook\n  - Presentation on Caucasus and Central Asia Regional Economic Outlook (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - Presentation on Caucasus and Central Asia Regional Economic Outlook (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Chapter 3. Caucasus and Central Asia: Economic Activity Resilient, but Uncertainty Remains\n  - Chapter 3. Caucasus and Central Asia: Economic Activity Resilient, but Uncertainty Remains (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - Chapter 3. Caucasus and Central Asia: Economic Activity Resilient, but Uncertainty Remains (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Highlights on the economic outlook for the Middle East and North Africa\n  - Highlights on the economic outlook for the Middle East and North Africa (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - Highlights on the economic outlook for the Middle East and North Africa (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Presentation of the Middle East and North Africa Regional Economic Outlook\n  - Presentation of the Middle East and North Africa Regional Economic Outlook (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - Presentation of the Middle East and North Africa Regional Economic Outlook (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Chapter 1. MENAP Oil Exporters: Increase Resilience and Create Private-Sector Jobs\n  - Chapter 1. MENAP Oil Exporters: Increase Resilience and Create Private-Sector Jobs (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - Chapter 1. MENAP Oil Exporters: Increase Resilience and Create Private-Sector Jobs (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Chapter 2. MENAP Oil Importers: Restore Macroeconomic Sustainability and Accelerate Growth\n  - Chapter 2. MENAP Oil Importers: Restore Macroeconomic Sustainability and Accelerate Growth (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - Chapter 2. MENAP Oil Importers: Restore Macroeconomic Sustainability and Accelerate Growth (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Regional Economic Outlook: Mi ddle East and Central Asia, November 2012\n  - Regional Economic Outlook: Mi ddle East and Central Asia, November 2012 (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - Regional Economic Outlook: Mi ddle East and Central Asia, November 2012 (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- cca1112chrpdf\n  - cca1112chrpdf (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - cca1112chrpdf (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Кавказ и Центральная Азия\n  - Кавказ и Центральная Азия (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - Кавказ и Центральная Азия (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Кавказ и Центральная Азия Перспективы развития региональной экономики\n  - Кавказ и Центральная Азия Перспективы развития региональной экономики (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - Кавказ и Центральная Азия Перспективы развития региональной экономики (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n\n---\n\n References\n\n- Sign up to receive free e-mail notices when new series and/or country items are posted on the IMF website.\n- Modify your profile\n- Press Release: Divergent Economic Performance Continues Across the Middle East\n- IMF Survey: Divergent Economic Performance Continues Across the Middle East\n- Press Release: Caucasus, Central Asia Countries Fare Well Despite Some Downside Risks\n- Survey: Caucasus, Central Asia Countries Fare Well Despite Some Downside Risks\n- Middle East: Regional Economic Outlooks Archive\n- Regional Economic Outlooks\n- IMF Regional Reports\n- World Economic Outlook Archives\n- Subscribe\n- https://www.imf.org/en/home\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/reo/meca/issues/2017/01/07/regional-economic-outlook-middle-east-and-central-asia8"
    }
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  "bullets": [
    "[Markdown version](/en/publications/reo/meca/issues/2017/01/07/regional-economic-outlook-middle-east-and-central-asia8/index.md)",
    "[Structured JSON version](/en/publications/reo/meca/issues/2017/01/07/regional-economic-outlook-middle-east-and-central-asia8/index.json)",
    "[Bundle manifest](/en/publications/reo/meca/issues/2017/01/07/regional-economic-outlook-middle-east-and-central-asia8/bundle-manifest.json)",
    "Published: November 11, 2012",
    "Series: Middle East and Central Asia",
    "The outlook for the Middle East and North Africa region is mixed.",
    "Oil-importing countries are witnessing tepid growth, and the moderate recovery expected in 2013 is subject to heightened downside risks.",
    "For the Arab countries in transition, ongoing political transitions weigh on growth; policy buffers are largely eroded, increasing the urgency of macroeconomic stabilization and growth-oriented reforms.",
    "The region's oil exporters are expected to post solid growth in 2012, in part due to Libya's better-than-expected postwar recovery.",
    "In the countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council, robust growth is supported by expansionary fiscal policies and accommodative monetary conditions.",
    "In the Caucasus and Central Asia, the outlook remains favorable, reflecting high oil prices, supportive commodity prices, remittance inflows, and moderate direct exposure to Europe.",
    "The positive outlook for CCA provides an opportunity to strengthen policy buffers to prepare for downside risks.",
    "Oil GDP Growth Falling, Non-Oil GDP Growth Healthy.",
    "Wage Increases Weaken Public Finances.",
    "A Sustained Large Drop in Oil Prices Is a Key Risk.",
    "Expenditure Restraint Would Increase Resilience.",
    "Current Account Surpluses Sensitive to Oil Price.",
    "Inflation Developments Mixed.",
    "Renewed Bond Issuance.",
    "Reforms for More Inclusive Growth.",
    "Annexes and special topics:",
    "Downturn Continues in 2012, Possible Moderate Recovery in 2013.",
    "Inflation Stable in Most Countries, But Concerns Rising.",
    "External Deficits Widening, Reserve Buffers Diminished.",
    "Need for Greater Exchange Rate Flexibility.",
    "Rising Subsidies, Deteriorating Fiscal Positions.",
    "Rising Debt Levels, Consolidation Necessary.",
    "Financial Sector: Mixed Performance.",
    "Downside Risks Are Elevated.",
    "Need to Restore Macroeconomic Sustainability.",
    "Minimizing the Growth & Social Impact of Fiscal Consolidation.",
    "Structural Reforms Needed to Enhance Inclusive Growth.",
    "Annex 2.1. MENAP & CCA Countries: Highly Vulnerable to Food Price Hikes.",
    "Economic Activity Resilient, but Uncertainty Remains.",
    "Oil and Gas Exporters: benefiting from high oil prices.",
    "Oil and Gas Importers: benefiting from supportive commodity prices and remittance inflows.",
    "Downside Risks: Moderate Impact from Euro Area Crisis.",
    "Annex 3.1. Measuring the Informal Economy in the Caucasus & Central Asia:",
    "Strengthen policy buffers while opportunity exists in CCA.",
    "Implement expenditure restraint in oil exporters to increase resilience to oil price drops.",
    "Restore macroeconomic sustainability in MENAP oil importers through consolidation and exchange rate flexibility.",
    "Protect the poor through safety nets and minimize growth and social impacts of fiscal consolidation.",
    "Advance growth-oriented structural reforms to foster inclusive growth and private-sector job creation.",
    "Chapters and highlights:",
    "Notable boxes include:",
    "Figures include country- and theme-specific charts such as:",
    "Tables and statistical appendices cover selected economic indicators for:",
    "**_menap1112ch12apdf**",
    "**أضواء على أهم الأحداث لآفاق الاقتصاد الإقليمي  في الشرق الأوسط وشمال إفريقيا وأفغانستان وباكستان**",
    "**عرض عن  آفاق الاقتصاد الإقليمي في الشرق الأوسط وشمال إفريقيا**",
    "**أضواء على أهم الأحداث لآفاق الاقتصاد الإقليمي  في الشرق الأوسط وشمال إفريقيا وأفغانستان وباكستان**",
    "**高加索和中亚：要点**",
    "**Perspectives économiques du Moyen-Orient, Afrique du Nord, Afghanistan et Pakistan: Chapitres 1 & 2**",
    "**Les Principaux points des perspectives économiques de la région Moyen-Orient et Afrique du Nord**",
    "**Presentation des Perspectives économiques régionales du Moyen-Orient et de l’Afrique du Nord**",
    "**Les Principaux points des perspectives économiques de la région Moyen-Orient et Afrique du Nord**",
    "**КОА аймағының басты мəселелері - Кавказ жəне Орталық Азия**",
    "**Highlights on The Caucasus and Central Asia**",
    "**Presentation on Caucasus and Central Asia Regional Economic Outlook**",
    "**Chapter 3. Caucasus and Central Asia: Economic Activity Resilient, but Uncertainty Remains**",
    "**Highlights on the economic outlook for the Middle East and North Africa**",
    "**Presentation of the Middle East and North Africa Regional Economic Outlook**",
    "**Chapter 1. MENAP Oil Exporters: Increase Resilience and Create Private-Sector Jobs**",
    "**Chapter 2. MENAP Oil Importers: Restore Macroeconomic Sustainability and Accelerate Growth**",
    "**Regional Economic Outlook: Mi ddle East and Central Asia, November 2012**",
    "**_cca1112chrpdf**",
    "**Кавказ и Центральная Азия**",
    "**Кавказ и Центральная Азия Перспективы развития региональной экономики**",
    "[Sign up to receive free e-mail notices when new series and/or country items are posted on the IMF website.](https://www.imf.org/en/email-subscription/index)",
    "[Modify your profile](https://www.imf.org/en/email-subscription/login)",
    "[Press Release: Divergent Economic Performance Continues Across the Middle East](https://www.imf.org/external/np/sec/pr/2012/pr12423.htm)",
    "[IMF Survey: Divergent Economic Performance Continues Across the Middle East](https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/survey/so/2012/CAR110912A.htm)",
    "[Press Release: Caucasus, Central Asia Countries Fare Well Despite Some Downside Risks](https://www.imf.org/external/np/sec/pr/2012/pr12424.htm)",
    "[Survey: Caucasus, Central Asia Countries Fare Well Despite Some Downside Risks](https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/survey/so/2012/car111212a.htm)",
    "[Middle East: Regional Economic Outlooks Archive](https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/reo/reorepts.aspx?ddlRegions=9&ddlYear=-1)",
    "[Regional Economic Outlooks](https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/reo/reorepts.aspx)",
    "[IMF Regional Reports](https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/cat/region.asp)",
    "[World Economic Outlook Archives](https://www.imf.org/external/ns/cs.aspx?id=29)",
    "[Subscribe](https://www.imf.org/external/RSS/feeds.aspx?Category=PUBS_GF)"
  ],
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