{ "title": "Regional Economic Outlook: Middle East and Central Asia Update", "publication": "Middle East and Central Asia, April 30, 2017", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/en/publications/reo/meca/issues/2017/04/18/mreo0517", "canonical": "https://www.imf.org/en/publications/reo/meca/issues/2017/04/18/mreo0517", "overlayPath": "/en/publications/reo/meca/issues/2017/04/18/mreo0517/index.md", "summary": "Global growth projected to reach 3.5 percent in 2017 and 3.6 percent in 2018, up from 3.1 percent in 2016.", "sections": [ { "heading": "Overview and key global assumptions", "content": "- Global growth projected to reach 3.5 percent in 2017 and 3.6 percent in 2018, up from 3.1 percent in 2016.\n- Baseline oil price assumptions: US$55.23 a barrel in 2017 and US$55.06 a barrel in 2018.\n- Six-month LIBOR on U.S.-dollar deposits assumed to average 1.7 percent in 2017 and 2.8 percent in 2018.\n- Risks to the global outlook skewed to the downside, including potential protectionism and faster-than-expected U.S. monetary policy normalization.\n- The OPEC+ agreement helped raise near-term oil prices but prices remain volatile; key uncertainties include compliance, production by exempt/nonparticipating countries, and downside risks to global growth." }, { "heading": "Regional growth and outlook", "content": "- Overall assessment: A more favorable global environment is helping improve prospects in MENAP and CCA, but growth remains subdued and structural reforms are needed.\n- CCA:\n - Growth was 2.4 percent in 2016 (1 percentage point higher than projected in October 2016, yet 0.8 percentage point lower than in 2015).\n - Projected to pick up to 3.1 percent in 2017 and accelerate to 4.1 percent in 2018.\n - Projected average growth of 4.3 percent in 2018–22, compared with 8.1 percent in 2000–14.\n- CCA oil exporters:\n - Growth slowed to 2.2 percent in 2016, 0.9 percentage point lower than in 2015 (lowest since 1998 for the oil-exporter group).\n - Projected rebound to 3.1 percent in 2017 and 4.1 percent in 2018.\n - Country-specific drivers: Kazakhstan—higher Kashagan output and fiscal stimulus; Azerbaijan—lower oil production and financial vulnerabilities; Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan—steady growth but external deficit concerns for Turkmenistan.\n- CCA oil importers:\n - Growth was 3.3 percent in 2016 (lowest since the global financial crisis).\n - Projected to accelerate to 3.6 percent in 2017 and 3.9 percent in 2018, with continued improvement over the medium term." }, { "heading": "Fiscal positions and consolidation", "content": "- General trend: Overall fiscal balances deteriorated in 2016 in most countries as policymakers used fiscal policy to offset external shocks; public debt increased and fiscal space declined.\n- Fiscal consolidation expected to occur mainly through reduced public investment; emphasis on protecting critical social expenditure and improving efficiency of public spending.\n- Oil exporters:\n - Non-oil fiscal deficit was 14.9 percent of non-oil GDP in 2016, an improvement of 3.6 percentage points relative to the previous year.\n - Projected increase of the non-oil fiscal deficit to 20.6 percent of non-oil GDP in 2017 (driven by a one-time banking support package in Kazakhstan and an extraordinary transfer from the Oil Fund to the Central Bank of Azerbaijan).\n - Projected decline to 13.5 percent in 2018 as nonproductive public investment is reduced in Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan’s stimulus expires.\n- Oil importers:\n - Overall fiscal deficit rose to 4.6 percent of GDP in 2016, 1.5 percentage points larger than in 2015.\n - Projected to decline to 3.4 percent in 2017 and 2.7 percent in 2018, conditional on implementation of consolidation plans (examples: lower public investment in Armenia, lower current expenditures in Georgia).\n- Public debt concerns:\n - Public debt has increased rapidly in many CCA countries and further increases are anticipated.\n - On average, almost half of the increase in public debt reflects valuation changes from local currency depreciations since 2014.\n - Recommendations include developing credible multiyear fiscal frameworks, identifying new income sources, reducing commodity-revenue dependence, and reviewing asset-liability management frameworks for sovereign wealth funds and reserves.\n - Note: In some countries, borrowing by state-owned enterprises is not recognized as contingent liability, potentially underestimating consolidated government obligations." }, { "heading": "External balances and current accounts", "content": "- Current account deficits widened in most CCA countries in 2016 due to external shocks since 2014.\n- Oil exporters:\n - Projected current account deficit of 3.2 percent of GDP in 2017 (improvement of 2.7 percentage points relative to the previous year), reverting effectively to 2015 levels.\n - Projected improvement to 2.3 percent of GDP in 2018, supported by export acceleration from higher oil prices and improved external demand.\n- Oil importers:\n - Current account deficit set to widen to 8.7 percent of GDP in 2017 from 7.9 percent in the prior year, but marginally improve to 8.4 percent in 2018.\n - Drivers include higher import prices (from higher oil prices and currency depreciation) partially offset by remittances and higher commodity export values." }, { "heading": "Inflation and monetary policy", "content": "- Oil exporters:\n - Inflation reached 11.5 percent last year (first double-digit reading in eight years).\n - Projected to decline to 8.3 percent in 2017 and 7.6 percent in 2018.\n - Factors: past depreciations (Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan), administrated price increases and import duties (Azerbaijan), and monetary policy shifts (Azerbaijan moving toward a free-floating exchange rate).\n- Oil importers:\n - Average inflation was 1.9 percent in 2016 (about 3 percentage points lower than in 2015); Tajikistan an exception with higher inflation.\n - Projected to accelerate to 4.4 percent in 2017 and remain around 4 percent in 2018.\n- Policy focus: As countries increase exchange rate flexibility, monetary policy should focus on inflation developments; improvements needed in policy instruments, central bank independence, analytics, and communications to support inflation-targeting and exchange rate flexibility." }, { "heading": "Financial sector vulnerabilities and reform priorities", "content": "- Financial sector weaknesses:\n - Restructured and overdue loans have increased; dollarization remains high; banks are undercapitalized.\n - Credit growth is declining in several countries; lack of transparency and ownership issues weaken confidence; governance and limited supervisory independence impede resolution.\n- Country actions and challenges:\n - Armenia: Banks complied with higher minimum capital, prompting mergers and consolidation.\n - Georgia: Strengthening regulatory framework and reducing dollarization underway.\n - Azerbaijan: Capital injections and government purchases of bad loans continue; further bank closures may be needed.\n - Kazakhstan: Merger of two largest banks underway, requiring significant public support.\n - Tajikistan: Recapitalization plan for two major banks and liquidation of two smaller banks announced; regulatory forbearance and NPL resolution remain challenges.\n- Recommended financial sector measures:\n - Properly diagnose and remedy bank balance-sheet weaknesses; timely intervention of weak banks to avoid systemic risks.\n - Provide public support only to viable systemic institutions, under strict conditions, with well-defined and fully collateralized guarantees; shareholders should not retain claims on assets when support is provided.\n - Liquidate bad assets and allow new investors to purchase these assets via transparent, market-oriented approaches to promote competition.\n - Avoid forbearance; improve corporate governance of state-owned enterprises; strengthen lending practices, crisis management frameworks, and enforcement of prudential regulations.\n - Prompt resolution of financial sector issues can support growth and reduce potential fiscal pressures." }, { "heading": "Structural reform imperative and downside risks", "content": "- The external shocks since 2014 increase urgency to diversify away from oil and other commodities and reduce reliance on remittances.\n- Downside risks include geopolitical tensions, weaker-than-expected recovery undermining fiscal consolidation, and failure to address financial sector weaknesses leading to systemic risks.\n- Reforms underway (examples): Kazakhstan’s 100 Concrete Steps; Georgia’s Four Point Reform Plan—both require reducing the role of the state and improving the business and legal environment.\n- Risk of complacency: Firming commodity prices could delay reforms needed to boost long-term living standards." }, { "heading": "Coverage, data conventions, and special notes", "content": "- The IMF MCD countries and territories covered: Afghanistan, Algeria, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Bahrain, Djibouti, Egypt, Georgia, Iran, Iraq, Jordan, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, the Kyrgyz Republic, Lebanon, Libya, Mauritania, Morocco, Oman, Pakistan, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Somalia, Sudan, Syria, Tajikistan, Tunisia, Turkmenistan, the United Arab Emirates, Uzbekistan, the West Bank and Gaza, and Yemen.\n- Somalia is excluded from all regional aggregates due to a lack of reliable data.\n- Syria data excluded for 2011 onward.\n- 2011 Sudan data exclude South Sudan after July 9; data for 2012 onward pertain to current Sudan.\n- Calendar-year data used except for: Afghanistan, Iran, Qatar, Egypt, Pakistan (specific fiscal-year notes apply).\n- Tables: “oil” includes gas in Tables 3, 6, 13, and 14.\n- REO aggregates constructed using GDP-PPP weights for domestic-economy composites and appropriate weighting rules for external aggregates as described in the publication.\n- Projections are based on statistical information available through early April 2017 and assume established national policies are maintained.\n\nRegional Economic Outlook: Middle East and Central Asia Update — https://www.imf.org/en/publications/reo/meca/issues/2017/04/18/mreo0517\n\n---\n\n Content in this bundle\n\n- آفاق الاقتصاد الإقليمي : اﻵﻓﺎق اﻹﻗﻠﯿﻤﯿﺔ تعكس التطورات اﻟﻌﺎﻟﻤﯿﺔ\n - آفاق الاقتصاد الإقليمي : اﻵﻓﺎق اﻹﻗﻠﯿﻤﯿﺔ تعكس التطورات اﻟﻌﺎﻟﻤﯿﺔ (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - آفاق الاقتصاد الإقليمي : اﻵﻓﺎق اﻹﻗﻠﯿﻤﯿﺔ تعكس التطورات اﻟﻌﺎﻟﻤﯿﺔ (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- آفاق الاقتصاد الإقليمي:منطقة الشرق الأوسط وآسيا الوسطى\n - آفاق الاقتصاد الإقليمي:منطقة الشرق الأوسط وآسيا الوسطى (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - آفاق الاقتصاد الإقليمي:منطقة الشرق الأوسط وآسيا الوسطى (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Caucasus and Central Asia: Regional Outlook Shaped by Global Developments\n - Caucasus and Central Asia: Regional Outlook Shaped by Global Developments (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - Caucasus and Central Asia: Regional Outlook Shaped by Global Developments (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Caucasus and Central Asia Regional Economic Outlook, May 4, 2017\n - Caucasus and Central Asia Regional Economic Outlook, May 4, 2017 (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - Caucasus and Central Asia Regional Economic Outlook, May 4, 2017 (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- 全球形势影响下的地区经济展望\n - 全球形势影响下的地区经济展望 (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - 全球形势影响下的地区经济展望 (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Les perspectives régionales reflètent l’évolution de l’économie mondiale\n - Les perspectives régionales reflètent l’évolution de l’économie mondiale (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - Les perspectives régionales reflètent l’évolution de l’économie mondiale (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Perspectives économiques régionales du Moyen-Orient et de l’Afrique du Nord\n - Perspectives économiques régionales du Moyen-Orient et de l’Afrique du Nord (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - Perspectives économiques régionales du Moyen-Orient et de l’Afrique du Nord (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- MENAP: Regional Outlook Shaped by Global Developments\n - MENAP: Regional Outlook Shaped by Global Developments (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - MENAP: Regional Outlook Shaped by Global Developments (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- MENAP Regional Economic Outlook May 2, 2017\n - MENAP Regional Economic Outlook May 2, 2017 (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - MENAP Regional Economic Outlook May 2, 2017 (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Middle East and Central Asia Department: Statistical Appendix\n - Middle East and Central Asia Department: Statistical Appendix (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - Middle East and Central Asia Department: Statistical Appendix (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Перспективы развития региональной экономики: Ближний Восток и Центральная Азия\n - Перспективы развития региональной экономики: Ближний Восток и Центральная Азия (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - Перспективы развития региональной экономики: Ближний Восток и Центральная Азия (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Перспективы региона формируются под влиянием глобальных изменений\n - Перспективы региона формируются под влиянием глобальных изменений (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - Перспективы региона формируются под влиянием глобальных изменений (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- dataset overview\n - dataset overview (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - dataset overview (XLSX){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/vnd.openxmlformats-officedocument.spreadsheetml.sheet\"}\n\n---\n\n References\n\n- https://www.imf.org/-/media/images/imf/publications/reo/mcd/cca/october17/table-sei.png\n- Sign up to receive free e-mail notices when new series and/or country items are posted on the IMF website.\n- Modify your profile\n- Country Focus\n- https://www.imf.org/en/home\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/reo/meca/issues/2017/04/18/mreo0517" } ], "bullets": [ "[Markdown version](/en/publications/reo/meca/issues/2017/04/18/mreo0517/index.md)", "[Structured JSON version](/en/publications/reo/meca/issues/2017/04/18/mreo0517/index.json)", "[Bundle manifest](/en/publications/reo/meca/issues/2017/04/18/mreo0517/bundle-manifest.json)", "Authors: country authorities.", "Published: April 30, 2017", "Series: Middle East and Central Asia", "Global growth projected to reach 3.5 percent in 2017 and 3.6 percent in 2018, up from 3.1 percent in 2016.", "Baseline oil price assumptions: US$55.23 a barrel in 2017 and US$55.06 a barrel in 2018.", "Six-month LIBOR on U.S.-dollar deposits assumed to average 1.7 percent in 2017 and 2.8 percent in 2018.", "Risks to the global outlook skewed to the downside, including potential protectionism and faster-than-expected U.S. monetary policy normalization.", "The OPEC+ agreement helped raise near-term oil prices but prices remain volatile; key uncertainties include compliance, production by exempt/nonparticipating countries, and downside risks to global growth.", "Overall assessment: A more favorable global environment is helping improve prospects in MENAP and CCA, but growth remains subdued and structural reforms are needed.", "CCA:", "CCA oil exporters:", "CCA oil importers:", "General trend: Overall fiscal balances deteriorated in 2016 in most countries as policymakers used fiscal policy to offset external shocks; public debt increased and fiscal space declined.", "Fiscal consolidation expected to occur mainly through reduced public investment; emphasis on protecting critical social expenditure and improving efficiency of public spending.", "Oil exporters:", "Oil importers:", "Public debt concerns:", "Current account deficits widened in most CCA countries in 2016 due to external shocks since 2014.", "Oil exporters:", "Oil importers:", "Oil exporters:", "Oil importers:", "Policy focus: As countries increase exchange rate flexibility, monetary policy should focus on inflation developments; improvements needed in policy instruments, central bank independence, analytics, and communications to support inflation-targeting and exchange rate flexibility.", "Financial sector weaknesses:", "Country actions and challenges:", "Recommended financial sector measures:", "The external shocks since 2014 increase urgency to diversify away from oil and other commodities and reduce reliance on remittances.", "Downside risks include geopolitical tensions, weaker-than-expected recovery undermining fiscal consolidation, and failure to address financial sector weaknesses leading to systemic risks.", "Reforms underway (examples): Kazakhstan’s 100 Concrete Steps; Georgia’s Four Point Reform Plan—both require reducing the role of the state and improving the business and legal environment.", "Risk of complacency: Firming commodity prices could delay reforms needed to boost long-term living standards.", "The IMF MCD countries and territories covered: Afghanistan, Algeria, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Bahrain, Djibouti, Egypt, Georgia, Iran, Iraq, Jordan, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, the Kyrgyz Republic, Lebanon, Libya, Mauritania, Morocco, Oman, Pakistan, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Somalia, Sudan, Syria, Tajikistan, Tunisia, Turkmenistan, the United Arab Emirates, Uzbekistan, the West Bank and Gaza, and Yemen.", "Somalia is excluded from all regional aggregates due to a lack of reliable data.", "Syria data excluded for 2011 onward.", "2011 Sudan data exclude South Sudan after July 9; data for 2012 onward pertain to current Sudan.", "Calendar-year data used except for: Afghanistan, Iran, Qatar, Egypt, Pakistan (specific fiscal-year notes apply).", "Tables: “oil” includes gas in Tables 3, 6, 13, and 14.", "REO aggregates constructed using GDP-PPP weights for domestic-economy composites and appropriate weighting rules for external aggregates as described in the publication.", "Projections are based on statistical information available through early April 2017 and assume established national policies are maintained.", "**آفاق الاقتصاد الإقليمي : اﻵﻓﺎق اﻹﻗﻠﯿﻤﯿﺔ تعكس التطورات اﻟﻌﺎﻟﻤﯿﺔ**", "**آفاق الاقتصاد الإقليمي:منطقة الشرق الأوسط وآسيا الوسطى**", "**Caucasus and Central Asia: Regional Outlook Shaped by Global Developments**", "**Caucasus and Central Asia Regional Economic Outlook, May 4, 2017**", "**全球形势影响下的地区经济展望**", "**Les perspectives régionales reflètent l’évolution de l’économie mondiale**", "**Perspectives économiques régionales du Moyen-Orient et de l’Afrique du Nord**", "**MENAP: Regional Outlook Shaped by Global Developments**", "**MENAP Regional Economic Outlook May 2, 2017**", "**Middle East and Central Asia Department: Statistical Appendix**", "**Перспективы развития региональной экономики: Ближний Восток и Центральная Азия**", "**Перспективы региона формируются под влиянием глобальных изменений**", "**dataset overview**", "[https://www.imf.org/-/media/images/imf/publications/reo/mcd/cca/october17/table-sei.png](https://www.imf.org/-/media/images/imf/publications/reo/mcd/cca/october17/table-sei.png)", "[Sign up to receive free e-mail notices when new series and/or country items are posted on the IMF website.](https://www.imf.org/en/email-subscription/index)", "[Modify your profile](https://www.imf.org/en/email-subscription/login)", "[Country Focus](http://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2017/05/01/NA050217-For-MiddleEast-NorthAfrica-region-reforms-can-refuel-growth-engines)" ], "related": [ { "title": "آفاق الاقتصاد الإقليمي : اﻵﻓﺎق اﻹﻗﻠﯿﻤﯿﺔ تعكس التطورات اﻟﻌﺎﻟﻤﯿﺔ", "role": "document", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/reo/mcd-cca/2017/may/pdf/arabic/menap0517a.pdf", "summary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/reo/mcd-cca/2017/may/pdf/arabic/menap0517a.pdf.md", "mime": "text/markdown" }, "binary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/reo/mcd-cca/2017/may/pdf/arabic/menap0517a.pdf", "mime": "application/pdf" } }, { "title": "آفاق الاقتصاد الإقليمي:منطقة الشرق الأوسط وآسيا الوسطى", "role": "document", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/reo/mcd-cca/2017/may/pdf/arabic/menap0517pa.pdf", "summary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/reo/mcd-cca/2017/may/pdf/arabic/menap0517pa.pdf.md", "mime": "text/markdown" }, "binary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/reo/mcd-cca/2017/may/pdf/arabic/menap0517pa.pdf", "mime": "application/pdf" } }, { "title": "Caucasus and Central Asia: Regional Outlook Shaped by Global Developments", "role": "document", "sourceUrl": 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"/-/media/files/publications/reo/mcd-cca/2017/may/pdf/menap0517p.pdf", "mime": "application/pdf" } }, { "title": "Middle East and Central Asia Department: Statistical Appendix", "role": "document", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/reo/mcd-cca/2017/may/pdf/mreo0517st.pdf", "summary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/reo/mcd-cca/2017/may/pdf/mreo0517st.pdf.md", "mime": "text/markdown" }, "binary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/reo/mcd-cca/2017/may/pdf/mreo0517st.pdf", "mime": "application/pdf" } }, { "title": "Перспективы развития региональной экономики: Ближний Восток и Центральная Азия", "role": "document", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/reo/mcd-cca/2017/may/pdf/russian/cca0517pr.pdf", "summary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/reo/mcd-cca/2017/may/pdf/russian/cca0517pr.pdf.md", "mime": "text/markdown" }, "binary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/reo/mcd-cca/2017/may/pdf/russian/cca0517pr.pdf", 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