{ "title": "Regional Economic Outlook: Middle East and Central Asia November 2018", "publication": "Middle East and Central Asia, November 6, 2018", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/en/publications/reo/meca/issues/2018/10/02/mreo1018", "canonical": "https://www.imf.org/en/publications/reo/meca/issues/2018/10/02/mreo1018", "overlayPath": "/en/publications/reo/meca/issues/2018/10/02/mreo1018/index.md", "summary": "A modest growth recovery continues for countries in the Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan region. Higher oil prices are providing support for oil-exporting countries but are adding to pressures facing oil-importing countries.", "sections": [ { "heading": "Overall summary", "content": "- A modest growth recovery continues for countries in the Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan region.\n- Growth in the Caucasus and Central Asia region exceeded expectations in 2017, but momentum is set to fade.\n- At forecasted growth rates, it will take the region nearly two decades to reach the per capita income levels of emerging Europe.\n- The increasingly challenging global environment underscores the need for both regions to build resilience and accelerate reforms that build dynamic private sectors and promote inclusive growth." }, { "heading": "Oil prices and regional divergence", "content": "- Higher oil prices are providing support for oil-exporting countries.\n- Higher oil prices are adding to pressures facing oil-importing countries.\n- Chapter focus items on oil dynamics:\n - Chapter 1: MENAP Oil-Exporting Countries: Higher Oil Prices Providing Temporary Support\n - Chapter 2: MENAP Oil-Importing Countries: Safeguarding the Growth Recovery Amid Rising Risks" }, { "heading": "Global outlook and risks", "content": "- Global growth for 2018–19 is projected to remain steady at its 2017 level of 3.7 percent.\n- This projection is 0.2 percentage point lower than the April 2018 World Economic Outlook.\n- Downside factors and revisions:\n - The forecast for the United States in 2018 is unchanged at 2.9 percent, but the forecast for 2019 has been revised down due to recently announced trade measures.\n - Growth projections have been marked down for the euro area and the United Kingdom, following surprises that suppressed activity in early 2018.\n - The outlook for emerging and developing economies is weaker, reflecting downward revisions for some large emerging market economies due to country-specific factors, tighter financial conditions, geopolitical tensions, and higher oil import bills.\n - China is projected to experience somewhat weaker growth in 2019 in the aftermath of recently announced trade measures.\n- Faster-than-anticipated tightening of global financial conditions and rising trade tensions cloud the outlook for both regions." }, { "heading": "Policy priorities and thematic chapters", "content": "- Emphasis on building resilience and accelerating reforms that:\n - Build dynamic private sectors.\n - Promote inclusive growth.\n- Related thematic chapters in the report:\n - Chapter 3: Caucasus and Central Asia: Unlocking the Region’s Growth Potential\n - Chapter 4: Fiscal Policy for Durable and Inclusive Growth in the Middle East and Central Asia\n - Chapter 5: Private Investment for Inclusive Growth in the Middle East and Central Asia\n\nSource: Regional Economic Outlook: Middle East and Central Asia November 2018\n\n---\n\n Content in this bundle\n\n- Chp 3\n - Chp 3 (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - Chp 3 (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Eng Cca Highlights\n - Eng Cca Highlights (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - Eng Cca Highlights (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Welcome to a visually integrated Fund\n - Welcome to a visually integrated Fund (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - Welcome to a visually integrated Fund (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- REO Statistical Appendix with front matter, November 2018\n - REO Statistical Appendix with front matter, November 2018 (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - REO Statistical Appendix with front matter, November 2018 (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- 1. Menap Oil-Exporting Countries: Higher Oil Prices Providing Temporary Support\n - 1. Menap Oil-Exporting Countries: Higher Oil Prices Providing Temporary Support (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - 1. Menap Oil-Exporting Countries: Higher Oil Prices Providing Temporary Support (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Chp2 En Reo1118\n - Chp2 En Reo1118 (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - Chp2 En Reo1118 (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Chp4 En Reo1118\n - Chp4 En Reo1118 (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - Chp4 En Reo1118 (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Chp5 En Reo1118\n - Chp5 En Reo1118 (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - Chp5 En Reo1118 (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- November 2018 Regional Economic Outlook: Middle East and Central Asia\n - November 2018 Regional Economic Outlook: Middle East and Central Asia (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - November 2018 Regional Economic Outlook: Middle East and Central Asia (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Global Developments\n - Global Developments (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - Global Developments (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Key Characteristics of Different Taxes\n - Key Characteristics of Different Taxes (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - Key Characteristics of Different Taxes (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Presentation - November 2018 Regional Economic Outlook: Middle East and Central Asia\n - Presentation - November 2018 Regional Economic Outlook: Middle East and Central Asia (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - Presentation - November 2018 Regional Economic Outlook: Middle East and Central Asia (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- REO Statistical Appendix\n - REO Statistical Appendix (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - REO Statistical Appendix (XLSX){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/vnd.openxmlformats-officedocument.spreadsheetml.sheet\"}\n- kaz-cca-highlights-final\n - kaz-cca-highlights-final (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - kaz-cca-highlights-final (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- kaz-october-2018-mcd-reo-chapter-3-finaldocx\n - kaz-october-2018-mcd-reo-chapter-3-finaldocx (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n - kaz-october-2018-mcd-reo-chapter-3-finaldocx (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n\n---\n\n References\n\n- Sign up to receive free e-mail notices when new series and/or country items are posted on the IMF website.\n- Modify your profile\n- How Can Policymakers Boost Private Investment in the Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan?\n- IMF Country Focus: How the Middle East and Central Asian Countries Can Reduce Debt and Preserve Growth\n- https://www.imf.org/en/home\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/reo/meca/issues/2018/10/02/mreo1018" } ], "bullets": [ "[Markdown version](/en/publications/reo/meca/issues/2018/10/02/mreo1018/index.md)", "[Structured JSON version](/en/publications/reo/meca/issues/2018/10/02/mreo1018/index.json)", "[Bundle manifest](/en/publications/reo/meca/issues/2018/10/02/mreo1018/bundle-manifest.json)", "Published: November 6, 2018", "Series: Middle East and Central Asia", "A modest growth recovery continues for countries in the Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan region.", "Growth in the Caucasus and Central Asia region exceeded expectations in 2017, but momentum is set to fade.", "At forecasted growth rates, it will take the region nearly two decades to reach the per capita income levels of emerging Europe.", "The increasingly challenging global environment underscores the need for both regions to build resilience and accelerate reforms that build dynamic private sectors and promote inclusive growth.", "Higher oil prices are providing support for oil-exporting countries.", "Higher oil prices are adding to pressures facing oil-importing countries.", "Chapter focus items on oil dynamics:", "Global growth for 2018–19 is projected to remain steady at its 2017 level of 3.7 percent.", "This projection is 0.2 percentage point lower than the April 2018 World Economic Outlook.", "Downside factors and revisions:", "Faster-than-anticipated tightening of global financial conditions and rising trade tensions cloud the outlook for both regions.", "Emphasis on building resilience and accelerating reforms that:", "Related thematic chapters in the report:", "**Chp 3**", "**Eng Cca Highlights**", "**Welcome to a visually integrated Fund**", "**REO Statistical Appendix with front matter, November 2018**", "**1. Menap Oil-Exporting Countries: Higher Oil Prices Providing Temporary Support**", "**Chp2 En Reo1118**", "**Chp4 En Reo1118**", "**Chp5 En Reo1118**", "**November 2018 Regional Economic Outlook: Middle East and Central Asia**", "**Global Developments**", "**Key Characteristics of Different Taxes**", "**Presentation - November 2018 Regional Economic Outlook: Middle East and Central Asia**", "**REO Statistical Appendix**", "**kaz-cca-highlights-final**", "**kaz-october-2018-mcd-reo-chapter-3-finaldocx**", "[Sign up to receive free e-mail notices when new series and/or country items are posted on the IMF website.](https://www.imf.org/en/email-subscription/index)", "[Modify your profile](https://www.imf.org/en/email-subscription/login)", "[How Can Policymakers Boost Private Investment in the Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan?](https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2018/11/16/na112118-how-can-policymakers-boost-private-investment-in-the-menap)", "[IMF Country Focus: How the Middle East and Central Asian Countries Can Reduce Debt and Preserve Growth](https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2018/11/12/na111318-how-countries-can-reduce-debt-and-preserve-growth)" ], "related": [ { "title": "Chp 3", "role": "document", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/reo/mcd-cca/2018/november/en/cca/chp-3.pdf", "summary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/reo/mcd-cca/2018/november/en/cca/chp-3.pdf.md", "mime": "text/markdown" }, "binary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/reo/mcd-cca/2018/november/en/cca/chp-3.pdf", "mime": "application/pdf" } }, { "title": "Eng Cca Highlights", "role": "document", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/reo/mcd-cca/2018/november/en/cca/eng-cca-highlights.pdf", "summary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/reo/mcd-cca/2018/november/en/cca/eng-cca-highlights.pdf.md", "mime": "text/markdown" }, "binary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/reo/mcd-cca/2018/november/en/cca/eng-cca-highlights.pdf", "mime": "application/pdf" } }, { "title": "Welcome to a visually integrated Fund", "role": "document", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/reo/mcd-cca/2018/november/en/cca/eng-october-2018-mcd-reo-cca-presentation.pdf", "summary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/reo/mcd-cca/2018/november/en/cca/eng-october-2018-mcd-reo-cca-presentation.pdf.md", "mime": "text/markdown" }, "binary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/reo/mcd-cca/2018/november/en/cca/eng-october-2018-mcd-reo-cca-presentation.pdf", "mime": "application/pdf" } }, { "title": "REO Statistical Appendix with front matter, November 2018", "role": "document", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/reo/mcd-cca/2018/november/en/cca/reo-statistical-appendix-cca.pdf", "summary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/reo/mcd-cca/2018/november/en/cca/reo-statistical-appendix-cca.pdf.md", "mime": "text/markdown" }, "binary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/reo/mcd-cca/2018/november/en/cca/reo-statistical-appendix-cca.pdf", "mime": "application/pdf" } }, { "title": "1. Menap Oil-Exporting Countries: Higher Oil Prices Providing Temporary Support", "role": "document", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/reo/mcd-cca/2018/november/en/menap/chp1-en-reo1118.pdf", "summary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/reo/mcd-cca/2018/november/en/menap/chp1-en-reo1118.pdf.md", "mime": "text/markdown" }, "binary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/reo/mcd-cca/2018/november/en/menap/chp1-en-reo1118.pdf", "mime": "application/pdf" } }, { "title": "Chp2 En Reo1118", "role": "document", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/reo/mcd-cca/2018/november/en/menap/chp2-en-reo1118.pdf", "summary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/reo/mcd-cca/2018/november/en/menap/chp2-en-reo1118.pdf.md", "mime": "text/markdown" }, "binary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/reo/mcd-cca/2018/november/en/menap/chp2-en-reo1118.pdf", "mime": "application/pdf" } }, { "title": "Chp4 En Reo1118", "role": "document", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/reo/mcd-cca/2018/november/en/menap/chp4-en-reo1118.pdf", "summary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/reo/mcd-cca/2018/november/en/menap/chp4-en-reo1118.pdf.md", "mime": "text/markdown" }, "binary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/reo/mcd-cca/2018/november/en/menap/chp4-en-reo1118.pdf", "mime": "application/pdf" } }, { "title": "Chp5 En Reo1118", "role": "document", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/reo/mcd-cca/2018/november/en/menap/chp5-en-reo1118.pdf", "summary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/reo/mcd-cca/2018/november/en/menap/chp5-en-reo1118.pdf.md", "mime": "text/markdown" }, "binary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/reo/mcd-cca/2018/november/en/menap/chp5-en-reo1118.pdf", "mime": "application/pdf" } }, { "title": "November 2018 Regional Economic Outlook: Middle East and Central Asia", "role": "document", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/reo/mcd-cca/2018/november/en/menap/en-reo1118.pdf", "summary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/reo/mcd-cca/2018/november/en/menap/en-reo1118.pdf.md", "mime": "text/markdown" }, "binary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/reo/mcd-cca/2018/november/en/menap/en-reo1118.pdf", "mime": "application/pdf" } }, { "title": "Global Developments", "role": "document", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/reo/mcd-cca/2018/november/en/menap/global-developments-en.pdf", "summary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/reo/mcd-cca/2018/november/en/menap/global-developments-en.pdf.md", "mime": "text/markdown" }, "binary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/reo/mcd-cca/2018/november/en/menap/global-developments-en.pdf", "mime": "application/pdf" } }, { "title": "Key Characteristics of Different Taxes", "role": "document", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/reo/mcd-cca/2018/november/en/menap/key-characteristics-of-different-taxes.pdf", "summary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/reo/mcd-cca/2018/november/en/menap/key-characteristics-of-different-taxes.pdf.md", "mime": "text/markdown" }, "binary": { "path": "/-/media/files/publications/reo/mcd-cca/2018/november/en/menap/key-characteristics-of-different-taxes.pdf", "mime": "application/pdf" } }, { "title": "Presentation - 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