## Regional Economic Outlook: Middle East and Central Asia November 2018 _Middle East and Central Asia, November 6, 2018_ ## Source details **Canonical URL:** [Regional Economic Outlook: Middle East and Central Asia November 2018](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/reo/meca/issues/2018/10/02/mreo1018) ## Other formats - [Markdown version](/en/publications/reo/meca/issues/2018/10/02/mreo1018/index.md) - [Structured JSON version](/en/publications/reo/meca/issues/2018/10/02/mreo1018/index.json) - [Bundle manifest](/en/publications/reo/meca/issues/2018/10/02/mreo1018/bundle-manifest.json) ## Bibliographic details - Published: November 6, 2018 - Series: Middle East and Central Asia --- ### Overall summary - A modest growth recovery continues for countries in the Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan region. - Growth in the Caucasus and Central Asia region exceeded expectations in 2017, but momentum is set to fade. - At forecasted growth rates, it will take the region nearly two decades to reach the per capita income levels of emerging Europe. - The increasingly challenging global environment underscores the need for both regions to build resilience and accelerate reforms that build dynamic private sectors and promote inclusive growth. ### Oil prices and regional divergence - Higher oil prices are providing support for oil-exporting countries. - Higher oil prices are adding to pressures facing oil-importing countries. - Chapter focus items on oil dynamics: - Chapter 1: MENAP Oil-Exporting Countries: Higher Oil Prices Providing Temporary Support - Chapter 2: MENAP Oil-Importing Countries: Safeguarding the Growth Recovery Amid Rising Risks ### Global outlook and risks - Global growth for 2018–19 is projected to remain steady at its 2017 level of 3.7 percent. - This projection is 0.2 percentage point lower than the April 2018 World Economic Outlook. - Downside factors and revisions: - The forecast for the United States in 2018 is unchanged at 2.9 percent, but the forecast for 2019 has been revised down due to recently announced trade measures. - Growth projections have been marked down for the euro area and the United Kingdom, following surprises that suppressed activity in early 2018. - The outlook for emerging and developing economies is weaker, reflecting downward revisions for some large emerging market economies due to country-specific factors, tighter financial conditions, geopolitical tensions, and higher oil import bills. - China is projected to experience somewhat weaker growth in 2019 in the aftermath of recently announced trade measures. - Faster-than-anticipated tightening of global financial conditions and rising trade tensions cloud the outlook for both regions. ### Policy priorities and thematic chapters - Emphasis on building resilience and accelerating reforms that: - Build dynamic private sectors. - Promote inclusive growth. - Related thematic chapters in the report: - Chapter 3: Caucasus and Central Asia: Unlocking the Region’s Growth Potential - Chapter 4: Fiscal Policy for Durable and Inclusive Growth in the Middle East and Central Asia - Chapter 5: Private Investment for Inclusive Growth in the Middle East and Central Asia *Source: Regional Economic Outlook: Middle East and Central Asia November 2018* --- ## Content in this bundle - **Chp 3** - [Chp 3 (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/reo/mcd-cca/2018/november/en/cca/chp-3.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"} - [Chp 3 (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/reo/mcd-cca/2018/november/en/cca/chp-3.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"} - **Eng Cca Highlights** - [Eng Cca Highlights (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/reo/mcd-cca/2018/november/en/cca/eng-cca-highlights.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"} - [Eng Cca Highlights (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/reo/mcd-cca/2018/november/en/cca/eng-cca-highlights.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"} - **Welcome to a visually integrated Fund** - [Welcome to a visually integrated Fund (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/reo/mcd-cca/2018/november/en/cca/eng-october-2018-mcd-reo-cca-presentation.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"} - [Welcome to a visually integrated Fund (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/reo/mcd-cca/2018/november/en/cca/eng-october-2018-mcd-reo-cca-presentation.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"} - **REO Statistical Appendix with front matter, November 2018** - [REO Statistical Appendix with front matter, November 2018 (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/reo/mcd-cca/2018/november/en/cca/reo-statistical-appendix-cca.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"} - [REO Statistical Appendix with front matter, November 2018 (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/reo/mcd-cca/2018/november/en/cca/reo-statistical-appendix-cca.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"} - **1. Menap Oil-Exporting Countries: Higher Oil Prices Providing Temporary Support** - [1. Menap Oil-Exporting Countries: Higher Oil Prices Providing Temporary Support (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/reo/mcd-cca/2018/november/en/menap/chp1-en-reo1118.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"} - [1. Menap Oil-Exporting Countries: Higher Oil Prices Providing Temporary Support (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/reo/mcd-cca/2018/november/en/menap/chp1-en-reo1118.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"} - **Chp2 En Reo1118** - [Chp2 En Reo1118 (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/reo/mcd-cca/2018/november/en/menap/chp2-en-reo1118.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"} - [Chp2 En Reo1118 (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/reo/mcd-cca/2018/november/en/menap/chp2-en-reo1118.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"} - **Chp4 En Reo1118** - [Chp4 En Reo1118 (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/reo/mcd-cca/2018/november/en/menap/chp4-en-reo1118.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"} - [Chp4 En Reo1118 (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/reo/mcd-cca/2018/november/en/menap/chp4-en-reo1118.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"} - **Chp5 En Reo1118** - [Chp5 En Reo1118 (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/reo/mcd-cca/2018/november/en/menap/chp5-en-reo1118.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"} - [Chp5 En Reo1118 (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/reo/mcd-cca/2018/november/en/menap/chp5-en-reo1118.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"} - **November 2018 Regional Economic Outlook: Middle East and Central Asia** - [November 2018 Regional Economic Outlook: Middle East and Central Asia (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/reo/mcd-cca/2018/november/en/menap/en-reo1118.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"} - [November 2018 Regional Economic Outlook: Middle East and Central Asia (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/reo/mcd-cca/2018/november/en/menap/en-reo1118.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"} - **Global Developments** - [Global Developments (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/reo/mcd-cca/2018/november/en/menap/global-developments-en.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"} - [Global Developments (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/reo/mcd-cca/2018/november/en/menap/global-developments-en.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"} - **Key Characteristics of Different Taxes** - [Key Characteristics of Different Taxes (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/reo/mcd-cca/2018/november/en/menap/key-characteristics-of-different-taxes.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"} - [Key Characteristics of Different Taxes (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/reo/mcd-cca/2018/november/en/menap/key-characteristics-of-different-taxes.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"} - **Presentation - November 2018 Regional Economic Outlook: Middle East and Central Asia** - [Presentation - November 2018 Regional Economic Outlook: Middle East and Central Asia (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/reo/mcd-cca/2018/november/en/menap/menap-pp-en-reo1118.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"} - [Presentation - November 2018 Regional Economic Outlook: Middle East and Central Asia (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/reo/mcd-cca/2018/november/en/menap/menap-pp-en-reo1118.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"} - **REO Statistical Appendix** - [REO Statistical Appendix (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/reo/mcd-cca/2018/november/en/reo-statistical-appendix-cca.xlsx.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"} - [REO Statistical Appendix (XLSX)](/-/media/files/publications/reo/mcd-cca/2018/november/en/reo-statistical-appendix-cca.xlsx){rel="external" type="application/vnd.openxmlformats-officedocument.spreadsheetml.sheet"} - **kaz-cca-highlights-final** - [kaz-cca-highlights-final (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/reo/mcd-cca/2018/november/kz/kaz-cca-highlights-final.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"} - [kaz-cca-highlights-final (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/reo/mcd-cca/2018/november/kz/kaz-cca-highlights-final.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"} - **kaz-october-2018-mcd-reo-chapter-3-finaldocx** - [kaz-october-2018-mcd-reo-chapter-3-finaldocx (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/reo/mcd-cca/2018/november/kz/kaz-october-2018-mcd-reo-chapter-3-finaldocx.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"} - [kaz-october-2018-mcd-reo-chapter-3-finaldocx (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/reo/mcd-cca/2018/november/kz/kaz-october-2018-mcd-reo-chapter-3-finaldocx.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"} --- ## References - [Sign up to receive free e-mail notices when new series and/or country items are posted on the IMF website.](https://www.imf.org/en/email-subscription/index) - [Modify your profile](https://www.imf.org/en/email-subscription/login) - [How Can Policymakers Boost Private Investment in the Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan?](https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2018/11/16/na112118-how-can-policymakers-boost-private-investment-in-the-menap) - [IMF Country Focus: How the Middle East and Central Asian Countries Can Reduce Debt and Preserve Growth](https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2018/11/12/na111318-how-countries-can-reduce-debt-and-preserve-growth) _Source: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/reo/meca/issues/2018/10/02/mreo1018_