## Regional Economic Outlook: Middle East and Central Asia Update

_Middle East and Central Asia, April 29, 2019_

## Source details

**Canonical URL:** [Regional Economic Outlook: Middle East and Central Asia Update](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/reo/meca/issues/2019/04/17/reo-menap-cca-0419)

## Other formats

- [Markdown version](/en/publications/reo/meca/issues/2019/04/17/reo-menap-cca-0419/index.md)
- [Structured JSON version](/en/publications/reo/meca/issues/2019/04/17/reo-menap-cca-0419/index.json)
- [Bundle manifest](/en/publications/reo/meca/issues/2019/04/17/reo-menap-cca-0419/bundle-manifest.json)

## Bibliographic details
- Published: April 29, 2019
- Series: Middle East and Central Asia

---

### Overview
- Growth for countries in the Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan (MENAP) region has weakened.
- Growth remains broadly stable in the Caucasus and Central Asia (CCA).
- Key external headwinds: volatile oil prices, restrained oil production, and tighter domestic monetary conditions in most oil exporters.
- Elevated public debt in oil importers limits capacity to address critical infrastructure and social needs, restrains growth, and increases vulnerability to external shocks.
- A more challenging external environment increases the urgency of growth-friendly fiscal consolidation and structural reform to enhance resilience and deliver higher and more inclusive private-sector-led growth.

### Caucasus and Central Asia (CCA) outlook
- Growth projected at 4.1 percent in 2019 and 2020.
- This outlook is little changed from the 4.2 percent growth seen last year.
- Expected channels and offsets:
  - Deceleration of oil-related growth due to lower oil prices and weaker prospects for key trading partners.
  - Offsetting factors include a recovery in non-oil growth in Kazakhstan and gas production in Azerbaijan.
- Inflation pressures are easing, with nearly every country in the region expected to see a moderation in prices.
- Growth stabilized after recovering from large external shocks during 2014–16, benefiting from efforts to strengthen macroeconomic policy frameworks.
- Nevertheless, growth remains too low to raise the region’s living standards.

### Risks and legacy challenges
- External risk transmission:
  - Lower growth in trading partner countries has already affected CCA countries, particularly through remittances; this could intensify amid the global slowdown.
  - Oil price swings could negatively affect countries heavily dependent on commodity prices.
  - Rising global trade tensions and uncertainties continue to cloud the outlook.
- Financial sector vulnerabilities:
  - Banking systems in some countries grapple with problem assets, including nonperforming loans.
  - This challenge is particularly pronounced in Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, and Tajikistan.
  - Reforms to address these issues have been slow and uneven.
  - Ongoing gaps in regulatory and governance frameworks are concerns.
- Monetary and exchange rate frameworks:
  - Monetary and exchange rate regimes have not fully transitioned to credible rules-based frameworks.
  - Exchange rates remain largely managed and overvalued in some countries.
- Fiscal buffers:
  - Public debt levels have risen in several countries, partly as a side effect of appropriately expansionary fiscal policies during external shocks in 2014-16.

### Policy recommendations
- Repair the financial sector:
  - Strengthen regulatory and supervisory frameworks.
  - Improve corporate governance in banks.
  - Bolster the judiciary and legal systems to address problem assets.
- Modernize monetary frameworks:
  - Fully transition to modern monetary policy frameworks.
  - Make exchange rates more flexible where appropriate.
- Fiscal policy:
  - Continue growth-friendly fiscal consolidation to rebuild buffers.
- Governance and structural reform:
  - Emphasize good governance and fight corruption.
  - Implement structural reforms that promote private sector development and diversification to secure higher, inclusive growth.
- Addressing unfinished reforms is urgent given mounting global headwinds.

### Statistical and country coverage notes
- The IMF’s Middle East and Central Asia Department (MCD) countries and territories comprise:
  - Afghanistan, Algeria, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Bahrain, Djibouti, Egypt, Georgia, Iran, Iraq, Jordan, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, the Kyrgyz Republic, Lebanon, Libya, Mauritania, Morocco, Oman, Pakistan, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Somalia, Sudan, Syria, Tajikistan, Tunisia, Turkmenistan, the United Arab Emirates, Uzbekistan, the West Bank and Gaza, and Yemen.
- Statistical appendix tables contain data for 31 MCD countries; data revisions reflect changes in methodology and/or revisions provided by country authorities.

*Regional Economic Outlook: Middle East and Central Asia Update — April 2019*

---

## Content in this bundle

- **Caucasus and Central Asia Update to the Regional Economic Outlook APRIL 2019**
  - [Caucasus and Central Asia Update to the Regional Economic Outlook APRIL 2019 (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/reo/mcd-cca/2019/april/english/cca-ppt0419.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"}
  - [Caucasus and Central Asia Update to the Regional Economic Outlook APRIL 2019 (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/reo/mcd-cca/2019/april/english/cca-ppt0419.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"}
- **Regional Economic Outlook Update: Caucasus and Central Asia; April 29, 2019**
  - [Regional Economic Outlook Update: Caucasus and Central Asia; April 29, 2019 (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/reo/mcd-cca/2019/april/english/cca0419.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"}
  - [Regional Economic Outlook Update: Caucasus and Central Asia; April 29, 2019 (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/reo/mcd-cca/2019/april/english/cca0419.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"}
- **Statisticalappendix**
  - [Statisticalappendix (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/reo/mcd-cca/2019/april/english/csv/statisticalappendix.xlsx.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"}
  - [Statisticalappendix (XLSX)](/-/media/files/publications/reo/mcd-cca/2019/april/english/csv/statisticalappendix.xlsx){rel="external" type="application/vnd.openxmlformats-officedocument.spreadsheetml.sheet"}
- **Global Developments: Implications for the Middle East and Central Asia Regions**
  - [Global Developments: Implications for the Middle East and Central Asia Regions (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/reo/mcd-cca/2019/april/english/global-development.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"}
  - [Global Developments: Implications for the Middle East and Central Asia Regions (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/reo/mcd-cca/2019/april/english/global-development.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"}
- **Chapter 1: MENAP Oil-Exporting Countries: Feeling the Impact of Lower and More Volatile Oil Prices**
  - [Chapter 1: MENAP Oil-Exporting Countries: Feeling the Impact of Lower and More Volatile Oil Prices (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/reo/mcd-cca/2019/april/english/menap-chapter1.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"}
  - [Chapter 1: MENAP Oil-Exporting Countries: Feeling the Impact of Lower and More Volatile Oil Prices (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/reo/mcd-cca/2019/april/english/menap-chapter1.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"}
- **Menap Chapter2**
  - [Menap Chapter2 (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/reo/mcd-cca/2019/april/english/menap-chapter2.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"}
  - [Menap Chapter2 (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/reo/mcd-cca/2019/april/english/menap-chapter2.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"}
- **Middle East and North Africa Regional Economic Outlook Presentation, April 2019**
  - [Middle East and North Africa Regional Economic Outlook Presentation, April 2019 (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/reo/mcd-cca/2019/april/english/menap-ppt0419.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"}
  - [Middle East and North Africa Regional Economic Outlook Presentation, April 2019 (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/reo/mcd-cca/2019/april/english/menap-ppt0419.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"}
- **April 2019 Regional Economic Outlook Update: Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan and Pakistan**
  - [April 2019 Regional Economic Outlook Update: Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan and Pakistan (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/reo/mcd-cca/2019/april/english/menap0419.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"}
  - [April 2019 Regional Economic Outlook Update: Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan and Pakistan (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/reo/mcd-cca/2019/april/english/menap0419.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"}
- **Middle East Regional Economic Update April 2019 Box 1 Online Annex Social Unrest Index**
  - [Middle East Regional Economic Update April 2019 Box 1 Online Annex Social Unrest Index (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/reo/mcd-cca/2019/april/english/menap0419online-annex.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"}
  - [Middle East Regional Economic Update April 2019 Box 1 Online Annex Social Unrest Index (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/reo/mcd-cca/2019/april/english/menap0419online-annex.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"}
- **Statistical Appendix**
  - [Statistical Appendix (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/reo/mcd-cca/2019/april/english/statistical-appendix.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"}
  - [Statistical Appendix (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/reo/mcd-cca/2019/april/english/statistical-appendix.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"}
- **Кавказ және Орталық Азия: Жаһандық  белгісіздік жағдайында бұрынғы проблемаларды шешу**
  - [Кавказ және Орталық Азия: Жаһандық  белгісіздік жағдайында бұрынғы проблемаларды шешу (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/reo/mcd-cca/2019/april/kazakh/cca-kaz.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"}
  - [Кавказ және Орталық Азия: Жаһандық  белгісіздік жағдайында бұрынғы проблемаларды шешу (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/reo/mcd-cca/2019/april/kazakh/cca-kaz.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"}

---

## References

- [IMF DATA PORTAL: Middle East and Central Asia Regional Economic Outlook](https://data.imf.org/mcdreo)
- [https://www.imf.org/-/media/images/imf/publications/reo/mcd/menap/april2019/menap-table.jpg](https://www.imf.org/-/media/images/imf/publications/reo/mcd/menap/april2019/menap-table.jpg)
- [https://www.imf.org/-/media/images/imf/publications/reo/mcd/menap/april2019/cca-table.jpg](https://www.imf.org/-/media/images/imf/publications/reo/mcd/menap/april2019/cca-table.jpg)
- [The Economic Outlook of the Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan in Five Charts](https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2019/04/26/na042919-menap-economic-outlook-5-charts)
- [Five Things to Know About the Economic Outlook in the Caucasus and Central Asia](https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2019/04/26/na042919-cca-5-things-to-know-economic-outlook)
- [https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo)
- [Global Economy in Crosscurrents of War and Technology](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo/issues/2026/07/08/world-economic-outlook-update-july-2026)
- [https://www.imf.org/en/publications/gfsr](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/gfsr)
- [Global Financial Markets Confront the War in the Middle East and Amplification Risks](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/gfsr/issues/2026/04/14/global-financial-stability-report-april-2026)
- [https://www.imf.org/en/publications/fm](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/fm)
- [Fiscal Policy under Pressure: High Debt, Rising Risks](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/fm/issues/2026/04/15/fiscal-monitor-april-2026)
- [https://www.imf.org/en/publications/reo](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/reo)
- [Asia and Pacific](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/reo/apac)
- [Europe](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/reo/eu)
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- [Getting to Growth in an Age of Uncertainty](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/areb/issues/2025/09/24/annual-report-2025)
- [https://www.imf.org/en/publications/finance-development](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/finance-development)
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_Source: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/reo/meca/issues/2019/04/17/reo-menap-cca-0419_