{ "title": "Regional Economic Outlook (REO): Sub-Saharan Africa - Dealing with the Gathering Clouds, October 2015 — Table of Contents", "publication": "Sub-Saharan Africa, October 7, 2015", "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/en/publications/reo/ssa/issues/2017/01/07/regional-economic-outlook-sub-saharan-africa2", "canonical": "https://www.imf.org/en/publications/reo/ssa/issues/2017/01/07/regional-economic-outlook-sub-saharan-africa2", "overlayPath": "/en/publications/reo/ssa/issues/2017/01/07/regional-economic-outlook-sub-saharan-africa2/index.md", "summary": "Sub-Saharan African’s economy is set to register another year of solid growth, although the expansion will be at the lower end of the range registered in recent years, mainly reflecting the severe impact of the sharp decline in oil prices on the region’s oil exporters.", "publishDate": "2015-10-07", "series": "Sub-Saharan Africa", "sections": [ { "heading": "Overview", "content": "- Growth projection and recent performance:\n - Growth at \"3¾ percent this year and 4¼ percent in 2016\"—still higher than in many other emerging and developing regions but markedly weakened from prior momentum.\n- Key drivers of the slowdown:\n - Severe impact of the sharp decline in oil prices on the region’s oil exporters, notably Nigeria and Angola.\n - Falling prices of main commodity exports affecting several countries.\n - Broad-based unfavorable conditions also affecting middle-income countries such as Ghana, South Africa, and Zambia.\n - Tightening global financial conditions increasing vulnerability for countries with large fiscal and current account deficits.\n- Risks to the outlook:\n - Potential reduction in external financing.\n - An uneven global recovery.\n - Domestic security-related challenges.\n- Structural policy priority:\n - Further progress toward diversification and structural transformation to sustain high and inclusive growth, generate jobs for the rapidly growing young population, and foster integration into global value chains." }, { "heading": "Chapter 1: Dealing with the Gathering Clouds — Major themes and findings", "content": "- Headline assessment:\n - \"Economic activity in sub-Saharan Africa has weakened markedly.\"\n- Full text highlights:\n - Strong Headwinds from the External Environment.\n - More Difficult Domestic Conditions.\n - Lower Growth amid Persistent Risks.\n- Special emphasis:\n - Necessary fiscal and monetary policy adjustments for countries adapting to the new environment." }, { "heading": "Special Focus (within Chapter 1)", "content": "- Creating fiscal space via better domestic revenue mobilization.\n- Annex 1.1:\n - \"Estimating the Tax Frontier\" — methodology/analysis supporting revenue mobilization policies." }, { "heading": "Chapter 2: Competitiveness in Sub-Saharan Africa: Marking Time or Moving Ahead? — Major themes and findings", "content": "- Recent pattern:\n - Strong real GDP growth and substantial trade integration in recent years.\n - \"Growth in sub-Saharan Africa’s trade volumes has not kept up with growth in the volume of global trade\" during this period, and trade imbalances have begun to rise.\n- Changing drivers:\n - Past drivers—improved policies, increased aid, debt relief, abundant global liquidity, and high global commodity prices—have started to dissipate.\n- Policy implications for sustaining growth:\n - Need to diversify away from commodities.\n - Increase export sophistication.\n - Integrate into global value chains.\n- Chapter structure:\n - Setting the Stage.\n - Indicators of Competitiveness: What Do They Reveal?\n - Competitiveness and Growth.\n - Some Policy Implications.\n- Annexes and technical work:\n - Annex 2.1. Methodology on Construction of GVC-Based REER.\n - Annex 2.2. Construction of Import Average and Export Average Relative Price Measures.\n - Annex 2.3. Estimation of Duration Dependence of Growth Spells." }, { "heading": "Chapter 3: Inequality and Economic Outcomes in Sub-Saharan Africa — Major themes and findings", "content": "- Core finding:\n - Sub-Saharan Africa has among the highest levels of inequality—both income and gender—in the world, even after accounting for lower levels of per capita income.\n- Relevance:\n - Growing international evidence that such inequality can impede macroeconomic stability and growth (referenced as Box 3.1).\n- Chapter focus:\n - Factors behind high levels of inequality and how they differ from other regions.\n - Policy options for reducing inequality and raising sustainable growth.\n- Chapter structure:\n - Sub-Saharan African Trends in Inequality.\n - Inequality and Growth Performance in the Region.\n - What Drives Income Inequality?\n - Policies to Reduce Inequality.\n - Conclusions.\n- Annexes:\n - Annex 3.1. Understanding Income and Gender Inequality in Sub-Saharan Africa.\n - Annex 3.2. Drivers of Inequality." }, { "heading": "Supporting materials and appendices", "content": "- Front Matter: Abbreviations; Acknowledgments; Executive Summary.\n- Statistical Appendix.\n- References.\n- Publications of the IMF African Department, 2009-15.\n\nSource: Regional Economic Outlook (REO): Sub-Saharan Africa - Dealing with the Gathering Clouds, October 2015 — Table of Contents.\n\n---\n\n Content in this bundle\n\n- Sreo1015f (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Sreo1015f (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Abbreviations1015pdf (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Acknowledgments1015pdf (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Chap1octpdf (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Chap2octpdf (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Chap3octpdf (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Executive1015pdf (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Publications1015pdf 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https://www.imf.org/en/home\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/reo/ssa/issues/2017/01/07/regional-economic-outlook-sub-saharan-africa2" } ], "bullets": [ "[Markdown version](/en/publications/reo/ssa/issues/2017/01/07/regional-economic-outlook-sub-saharan-africa2/index.md)", "[Structured JSON version](/en/publications/reo/ssa/issues/2017/01/07/regional-economic-outlook-sub-saharan-africa2/index.json)", "[Bundle manifest](/en/publications/reo/ssa/issues/2017/01/07/regional-economic-outlook-sub-saharan-africa2/bundle-manifest.json)", "Published: October 7, 2015", "Series: Sub-Saharan Africa", "Growth projection and recent performance:", "Key drivers of the slowdown:", "Risks to the outlook:", "Structural policy priority:", "Headline assessment:", "Full text highlights:", "Special emphasis:", "Creating fiscal space via better domestic revenue mobilization.", "Annex 1.1:", "Recent pattern:", "Changing drivers:", "Policy implications for sustaining growth:", "Chapter structure:", "Annexes and technical work:", "Core finding:", "Relevance:", "Chapter focus:", "Chapter structure:", "Annexes:", "Front Matter: Abbreviations; Acknowledgments; Executive Summary.", "Statistical Appendix.", "References.", "Publications of the IMF African Department, 2009-15.", "[Sreo1015f (PDF)](/-/media/websites/imf/imported-flagship-issues/external/french/pubs/ft/reo/2015/afr/_sreo1015f.pdf){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}", "[Sreo1015f (PDF)](/-/media/websites/imf/imported-flagship-issues/external/french/pubs/ft/reo/2015/afr/sreo1015f.pdf){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}", "[Abbreviations1015pdf (PDF)](/-/media/websites/imf/imported-flagship-issues/external/pubs/ft/reo/2015/afr/eng/pdf/_abbreviations1015pdf.pdf){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}", "[Acknowledgments1015pdf (PDF)](/-/media/websites/imf/imported-flagship-issues/external/pubs/ft/reo/2015/afr/eng/pdf/_acknowledgments1015pdf.pdf){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}", "[Chap1octpdf 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