## Regional Economic Outlook: Sub-Saharan Africa

_Sub-Saharan Africa, May 9, 2017_

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**Canonical URL:** [Regional Economic Outlook: Sub-Saharan Africa](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/reo/ssa/issues/2017/05/03/sreo0517)

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## Bibliographic details
- Published: May 9, 2017
- Series: Sub-Saharan Africa

---

### Overview and recent performance
- Growth momentum in sub-Saharan Africa remains fragile, marking a break from the rapid expansion witnessed since the turn of the millennium.
- 2016 was a difficult year for many countries, with regional growth dipping to 1.4 percent—the lowest level of growth in more than two decades.
- Most oil exporters were in recession, and conditions in other resource-intensive countries remained difficult.
- Other nonresource-intensive countries however, continued to grow robustly.
- The deterioration in the overall outlook partly reflects insufficient policy adjustment.

### Growth outlook and drivers (short-term)
- A modest recovery in growth of about 2.6 percent is expected in 2017, but this falls short of past trends and is too low to put sub-Saharan Africa back on a path of rising living standards.
- The modest rebound in 2017 will be to a large extent driven by one-off factors in the three largest countries:
  - a recovery in oil production in Nigeria,
  - higher public spending ahead of the elections in Angola,
  - the fading of drought effects in South Africa,
  - combined in all three countries with modest improvements in the terms of trade.
- At this rate, growth for the region as a whole will continue to fall well short of past trends and barely deliver any per capita gains.

### Cross-country heterogeneity and scope of slowdown
- About two-thirds of the countries in the region, together accounting for 83 percent of the region’s GDP, slowed down in 2016—although some countries still continued to expand strongly.
- After nearly two decades of strong growth, average economic activity in sub-Saharan Africa has decelerated sharply, against the backdrop of lower commodity prices, a less-supportive global environment, and, in the hardest-hit countries, a delayed policy response.

### Policy implications and priorities
- Strong and sound domestic policy measures are needed to restart the growth engine.
- Two related policy questions highlighted:
  - How can growth be revived in the hardest-hit countries?
  - For countries that are still growing fast, how can growth be sustained?

### The informal economy: size, implications, and challenges
- The informal economy is a key component of most economies in sub-Saharan Africa:
  - contributing between 25 and 65 percent of GDP,
  - accounting for between 30 and 90 percent of total nonagricultural employment.
- While international experience indicates that the share of the informal economy declines as the level of development increases, most economies in sub-Saharan Africa are likely to have large informal sectors for many years to come, presenting both opportunities and challenges for policymakers.

*International Monetary Fund — Regional Economic Outlook: Sub-Saharan Africa (canonical URL provided).*

---

## Content in this bundle

- **Regional Economic Outlook: Sub-Saharan Africa Restarting the Growth Engine**
  - [Regional Economic Outlook: Sub-Saharan Africa Restarting the Growth Engine (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/reo/afr/2017/may/pdf/sreo0517-app.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"}
  - [Regional Economic Outlook: Sub-Saharan Africa Restarting the Growth Engine (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/reo/afr/2017/may/pdf/sreo0517-app.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"}
- **Regional Economic Outlook: Sub-Saharan Africa Restarting the Growth Engine**
  - [Regional Economic Outlook: Sub-Saharan Africa Restarting the Growth Engine (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/reo/afr/2017/may/pdf/sreo0517-chap1.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"}
  - [Regional Economic Outlook: Sub-Saharan Africa Restarting the Growth Engine (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/reo/afr/2017/may/pdf/sreo0517-chap1.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"}
- **Regional Economic Outlook: Sub-Saharan Africa Restarting the Growth Engine**
  - [Regional Economic Outlook: Sub-Saharan Africa Restarting the Growth Engine (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/reo/afr/2017/may/pdf/sreo0517-chap2.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"}
  - [Regional Economic Outlook: Sub-Saharan Africa Restarting the Growth Engine (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/reo/afr/2017/may/pdf/sreo0517-chap2.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"}
- **Regional Economic Outlook: Sub-Saharan Africa Restarting the Growth Engine**
  - [Regional Economic Outlook: Sub-Saharan Africa Restarting the Growth Engine (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/reo/afr/2017/may/pdf/sreo0517-chap3.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"}
  - [Regional Economic Outlook: Sub-Saharan Africa Restarting the Growth Engine (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/reo/afr/2017/may/pdf/sreo0517-chap3.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"}
- **Regional Economic Outlook: Sub-Saharan Africa Restarting the Growth Engine**
  - [Regional Economic Outlook: Sub-Saharan Africa Restarting the Growth Engine (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/reo/afr/2017/may/pdf/sreo0517-exec.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"}
  - [Regional Economic Outlook: Sub-Saharan Africa Restarting the Growth Engine (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/reo/afr/2017/may/pdf/sreo0517-exec.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"}
- **Regional Economic Outlook: Sub-Saharan Africa Restarting the Growth Engine**
  - [Regional Economic Outlook: Sub-Saharan Africa Restarting the Growth Engine (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/reo/afr/2017/may/pdf/sreo0517-pubs.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"}
  - [Regional Economic Outlook: Sub-Saharan Africa Restarting the Growth Engine (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/reo/afr/2017/may/pdf/sreo0517-pubs.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"}
- **Regional Economic Outlook: Sub-Saharan Africa Restarting the Growth Engine**
  - [Regional Economic Outlook: Sub-Saharan Africa Restarting the Growth Engine (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/reo/afr/2017/may/pdf/sreo0517.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"}
  - [Regional Economic Outlook: Sub-Saharan Africa Restarting the Growth Engine (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/reo/afr/2017/may/pdf/sreo0517.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"}

---

## References

- [Angola and the IMF](http://www.imf.org/external/country/AGO/index.htm)
- [Nigeria and the IMF](http://www.imf.org/external/country/NGA/index.htm)
- [South Africa and the IMF](http://www.imf.org/external/country/ZAF/index.htm)
- [Press Release](https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2017/05/09/pr17152-imf-calls-for-strong-sound-policy-measures-to-restart-sub-saharan-africa-growth-engine)
- [Country Focus](https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2017/05/05/na050917-sub-saharan-africa-restarting-the-growth-engine)
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- [https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo)
- [Global Economy in Crosscurrents of War and Technology](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo/issues/2026/07/08/world-economic-outlook-update-july-2026)
- [https://www.imf.org/en/publications/gfsr](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/gfsr)
- [Global Financial Markets Confront the War in the Middle East and Amplification Risks](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/gfsr/issues/2026/04/14/global-financial-stability-report-april-2026)
- [https://www.imf.org/en/publications/fm](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/fm)
- [Fiscal Policy under Pressure: High Debt, Rising Risks](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/fm/issues/2026/04/15/fiscal-monitor-april-2026)
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_Source: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/reo/ssa/issues/2017/05/03/sreo0517_