{
  "title": "Sub-Saharan Africa Regional Economic Outlook: Recovery Amid Elevated Uncertainty",
  "publication": "Sub-Saharan Africa, April 12, 2019",
  "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/en/publications/reo/ssa/issues/2019/04/01/sreo0419",
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  "summary": "The economic recovery in sub-Saharan Africa continues. Regional growth is set to pick up from 3 percent in 2018 to 3.5 percent in 2019, before stabilizing at close to 4 percent over the medium term.",
  "publishDate": "2019-04-12",
  "series": "Sub-Saharan Africa",
  "sections": [
    {
      "heading": "Regional growth and outlook",
      "content": "- Regional growth is set to pick up from 3 percent in 2018 to 3.5 percent in 2019, before stabilizing at close to 4 percent over the medium term.\n- Aggregate growth stabilizes at slightly below 4 percent over the medium term—or about 5 percent, excluding the two major economies, Nigeria and South Africa.\n- Economic recovery in sub-Saharan Africa is set to continue with growth projected to pick up from 3 percent in 2018 to 3.5 percent in 2019."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Two-track recovery and cross-country differences",
      "content": "- Region‑wide averages mask considerable differences in growth performance and prospects across countries.\n- About half of the region’s countries—mostly non-resource-intensive countries—are expected to grow at 5 percent or more.\n  - Some 21 countries, mainly the region’s more diversified economies, are expected to sustain growth at 5 percent or more and remain on the per capita convergence path experienced since the early 2000s.\n- The remaining countries—mostly resource-intensive economies—face slower improvements in living standards.\n  - In the 24 other more resource-dependent economies, including the largest (Nigeria and South Africa), growth looks set to remain anemic in the near term.\n  - With some two-thirds of the region’s population residing in these countries, much slower improvement in standards of living is implied for the lion’s share of sub-Saharan Africans."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Conflict and economic consequences",
      "content": "- Armed conflict remains pervasive; while there was a declining trend in incidence and intensity since the early 2000s, there has been an uptick in violence in recent years reflecting the global increase in conflict.\n- Overall, about a third of the countries in the region have been affected by conflict in recent years."
    },
    {
      "heading": "African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA)",
      "content": "- In 2018, African Union member countries agreed to establish the AfCFTA to boost regional trade and economic integration.\n  - Agreement elements: eliminate tariffs on most goods, liberalize trade of key services, address nontariff obstacles to intraregional trade, and eventually create a continental single market with free movement of labor and capital.\n- The AfCFTA has been ratified by 22 countries and is likely to take effect in 2019, although negotiations on specific features are ongoing.\n- Once operational, the AfCFTA will establish a market of 1.2 billion people with a combined GDP of US$2.5 trillion.\n- The AfCFTA could be an economic game changer for the continent."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Policy priorities and recommendations",
      "content": "- Strengthen resilience and create higher, more inclusive, and durable growth across the region.\n- Build fiscal space and enhance resilience to shocks by stepping up actions to mobilize revenues.\n- Implement policies to boost productivity and private investment.\n\nSub-Saharan Africa Regional Economic Outlook: Recovery Amid Elevated Uncertainty, April 2019\n\n---\n\n Content in this bundle\n\n- sreo0419\n  - sreo0419 (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - sreo0419 (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Chapter 1\n  - Chapter 1 (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - Chapter 1 (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Chapter 2\n  - Chapter 2 (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - Chapter 2 (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Chapter 3\n  - Chapter 3 (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - Chapter 3 (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Sub-Saharan Africa Regional Economic Outlook; Recovery Amid Elevated Uncertainty, April 2019\n  - Sub-Saharan Africa Regional Economic Outlook; Recovery Amid Elevated Uncertainty, April 2019 (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - Sub-Saharan Africa Regional Economic Outlook; Recovery Amid Elevated Uncertainty, April 2019 (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Statistical Appendix. Sub-Saharan Africa Regional Economic Outlook, April 2019\n  - Statistical Appendix. Sub-Saharan Africa Regional Economic Outlook, April 2019 (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - Statistical Appendix. Sub-Saharan Africa Regional Economic Outlook, April 2019 (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Table of Contents and Executive Summary. Sub-Saharan Africa Regional Economic Outlook, April 2019\n  - Table of Contents and Executive Summary. Sub-Saharan Africa Regional Economic Outlook, April 2019 (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - Table of Contents and Executive Summary. Sub-Saharan Africa Regional Economic Outlook, April 2019 (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- 1. Recuperação dupla num contexto de elevada incerteza\n  - 1. Recuperação dupla num contexto de elevada incerteza (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - 1. Recuperação dupla num contexto de elevada incerteza (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n\n---\n\n References\n\n- IMF Data Portal\n- IMF Data Mapper® v3\nPlot, compare and import data\n- https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo\n- Global Economy in Crosscurrents of War and Technology\n- https://www.imf.org/en/publications/gfsr\n- Global Financial Markets Confront the War in the Middle East and Amplification Risks\n- https://www.imf.org/en/publications/fm\n- Fiscal Policy under Pressure: High Debt, Rising Risks\n- https://www.imf.org/en/publications/reo\n- Asia and Pacific\n- Europe\n- Middle East and Central Asia\n- Sub-Saharan Africa\n- Western Hemisphere\n- https://www.imf.org/en/publications/areb\n- Getting to Growth in an Age of Uncertainty\n- https://www.imf.org/en/publications/finance-development\n- More Publications\n- Sign up to receive free e-mail notices when new series and/or country items are posted on the IMF website.\n- Modify your profile\n- Country Focus\n- Podcast\n- Background Paper and\nExpanded\nStatistical Appendix Tables\n- https://www.imf.org/en/home\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/reo/ssa/issues/2019/04/01/sreo0419"
    }
  ],
  "bullets": [
    "[Markdown version](/en/publications/reo/ssa/issues/2019/04/01/sreo0419/index.md)",
    "[Structured JSON version](/en/publications/reo/ssa/issues/2019/04/01/sreo0419/index.json)",
    "[Bundle manifest](/en/publications/reo/ssa/issues/2019/04/01/sreo0419/bundle-manifest.json)",
    "Published: April 12, 2019",
    "Series: Sub-Saharan Africa",
    "Regional growth is set to pick up from 3 percent in 2018 to 3.5 percent in 2019, before stabilizing at close to 4 percent over the medium term.",
    "Aggregate growth stabilizes at slightly below 4 percent over the medium term—or about 5 percent, excluding the two major economies, Nigeria and South Africa.",
    "Economic recovery in sub-Saharan Africa is set to continue with growth projected to pick up from 3 percent in 2018 to 3.5 percent in 2019.",
    "Region‑wide averages mask considerable differences in growth performance and prospects across countries.",
    "About half of the region’s countries—mostly non-resource-intensive countries—are expected to grow at 5 percent or more.",
    "The remaining countries—mostly resource-intensive economies—face slower improvements in living standards.",
    "Armed conflict remains pervasive; while there was a declining trend in incidence and intensity since the early 2000s, there has been an uptick in violence in recent years reflecting the global increase in conflict.",
    "Overall, about a third of the countries in the region have been affected by conflict in recent years.",
    "In 2018, African Union member countries agreed to establish the AfCFTA to boost regional trade and economic integration.",
    "The AfCFTA has been ratified by 22 countries and is likely to take effect in 2019, although negotiations on specific features are ongoing.",
    "Once operational, the AfCFTA will establish a market of 1.2 billion people with a combined GDP of US$2.5 trillion.",
    "The AfCFTA could be an economic game changer for the continent.",
    "Strengthen resilience and create higher, more inclusive, and durable growth across the region.",
    "Build fiscal space and enhance resilience to shocks by stepping up actions to mobilize revenues.",
    "Implement policies to boost productivity and private investment.",
    "**sreo0419**",
    "**Chapter 1**",
    "**Chapter 2**",
    "**Chapter 3**",
    "**Sub-Saharan Africa Regional Economic Outlook; Recovery Amid Elevated Uncertainty, April 2019**",
    "**Statistical Appendix. Sub-Saharan Africa Regional Economic Outlook, April 2019**",
    "**Table of Contents and Executive Summary. Sub-Saharan Africa Regional Economic Outlook, April 2019**",
    "**1. Recuperação dupla num contexto de elevada incerteza**",
    "[IMF Data Portal](http://data.imf.org/afrreo)",
    "[IMF Data Mapper® v3",
    "[https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo)",
    "[Global Economy in Crosscurrents of War and Technology](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo/issues/2026/07/08/world-economic-outlook-update-july-2026)",
    "[https://www.imf.org/en/publications/gfsr](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/gfsr)",
    "[Global Financial Markets Confront the War in the Middle East and Amplification Risks](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/gfsr/issues/2026/04/14/global-financial-stability-report-april-2026)",
    "[https://www.imf.org/en/publications/fm](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/fm)",
    "[Fiscal Policy under Pressure: High Debt, Rising Risks](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/fm/issues/2026/04/15/fiscal-monitor-april-2026)",
    "[https://www.imf.org/en/publications/reo](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/reo)",
    "[Asia and Pacific](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/reo/apac)",
    "[Europe](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/reo/eu)",
    "[Middle East and Central Asia](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/reo/meca)",
    "[Sub-Saharan Africa](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/reo/ssa)",
    "[Western Hemisphere](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/reo/wh)",
    "[https://www.imf.org/en/publications/areb](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/areb)",
    "[Getting to Growth in an Age of Uncertainty](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/areb/issues/2025/09/24/annual-report-2025)",
    "[https://www.imf.org/en/publications/finance-development](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/finance-development)",
    "[More Publications](https://www.imf.org/en/publications)",
    "[Sign up to receive free e-mail notices when new series and/or country items are posted on the IMF website.](https://www.imf.org/en/email-subscription/index)",
    "[Modify your profile](https://www.imf.org/en/email-subscription/login)",
    "[Country Focus](https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2019/04/11/na041219-africa-navigating-sub-saharan-africas-recovery-amid-greater-uncertainty)",
    "[Podcast](https://www.imf.org/en/news/podcasts/all-podcasts/2018/10/10/afr-reo-oct-2018-en)",
    "[Background Paper and",
    "[https://www.imf.org/en/home](https://www.imf.org/en/home)"
  ],
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