## Sub-Saharan Africa Regional Economic Outlook: Recovery Amid Elevated Uncertainty

_Sub-Saharan Africa, April 12, 2019_

## Source details

**Canonical URL:** [Sub-Saharan Africa Regional Economic Outlook: Recovery Amid Elevated Uncertainty](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/reo/ssa/issues/2019/04/01/sreo0419)

## Other formats

- [Markdown version](/en/publications/reo/ssa/issues/2019/04/01/sreo0419/index.md)
- [Structured JSON version](/en/publications/reo/ssa/issues/2019/04/01/sreo0419/index.json)
- [Bundle manifest](/en/publications/reo/ssa/issues/2019/04/01/sreo0419/bundle-manifest.json)

## Bibliographic details
- Published: April 12, 2019
- Series: Sub-Saharan Africa

---

### Regional growth and outlook
- Regional growth is set to pick up from 3 percent in 2018 to 3.5 percent in 2019, before stabilizing at close to 4 percent over the medium term.
- Aggregate growth stabilizes at slightly below 4 percent over the medium term—or about 5 percent, excluding the two major economies, Nigeria and South Africa.
- Economic recovery in sub-Saharan Africa is set to continue with growth projected to pick up from 3 percent in 2018 to 3.5 percent in 2019.

### Two-track recovery and cross-country differences
- Region‑wide averages mask considerable differences in growth performance and prospects across countries.
- About half of the region’s countries—mostly non-resource-intensive countries—are expected to grow at 5 percent or more.
  - Some 21 countries, mainly the region’s more diversified economies, are expected to sustain growth at 5 percent or more and remain on the per capita convergence path experienced since the early 2000s.
- The remaining countries—mostly resource-intensive economies—face slower improvements in living standards.
  - In the 24 other more resource-dependent economies, including the largest (Nigeria and South Africa), growth looks set to remain anemic in the near term.
  - With some two-thirds of the region’s population residing in these countries, much slower improvement in standards of living is implied for the lion’s share of sub-Saharan Africans.

### Conflict and economic consequences
- Armed conflict remains pervasive; while there was a declining trend in incidence and intensity since the early 2000s, there has been an uptick in violence in recent years reflecting the global increase in conflict.
- Overall, about a third of the countries in the region have been affected by conflict in recent years.

### African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA)
- In 2018, African Union member countries agreed to establish the AfCFTA to boost regional trade and economic integration.
  - Agreement elements: eliminate tariffs on most goods, liberalize trade of key services, address nontariff obstacles to intraregional trade, and eventually create a continental single market with free movement of labor and capital.
- The AfCFTA has been ratified by 22 countries and is likely to take effect in 2019, although negotiations on specific features are ongoing.
- Once operational, the AfCFTA will establish a market of 1.2 billion people with a combined GDP of US$2.5 trillion.
- The AfCFTA could be an economic game changer for the continent.

### Policy priorities and recommendations
- Strengthen resilience and create higher, more inclusive, and durable growth across the region.
- Build fiscal space and enhance resilience to shocks by stepping up actions to mobilize revenues.
- Implement policies to boost productivity and private investment.

*Sub-Saharan Africa Regional Economic Outlook: Recovery Amid Elevated Uncertainty, April 2019*

---

## Content in this bundle

- **sreo0419**
  - [sreo0419 (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/reo/afr/2019/april/chinese/sreo0419.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"}
  - [sreo0419 (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/reo/afr/2019/april/chinese/sreo0419.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"}
- **Chapter 1**
  - [Chapter 1 (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/reo/afr/2019/april/english/ch1.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"}
  - [Chapter 1 (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/reo/afr/2019/april/english/ch1.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"}
- **Chapter 2**
  - [Chapter 2 (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/reo/afr/2019/april/english/ch2.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"}
  - [Chapter 2 (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/reo/afr/2019/april/english/ch2.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"}
- **Chapter 3**
  - [Chapter 3 (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/reo/afr/2019/april/english/ch3.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"}
  - [Chapter 3 (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/reo/afr/2019/april/english/ch3.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"}
- **Sub-Saharan Africa Regional Economic Outlook; Recovery Amid Elevated Uncertainty, April 2019**
  - [Sub-Saharan Africa Regional Economic Outlook; Recovery Amid Elevated Uncertainty, April 2019 (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/reo/afr/2019/april/english/sreo0419.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"}
  - [Sub-Saharan Africa Regional Economic Outlook; Recovery Amid Elevated Uncertainty, April 2019 (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/reo/afr/2019/april/english/sreo0419.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"}
- **Statistical Appendix. Sub-Saharan Africa Regional Economic Outlook, April 2019**
  - [Statistical Appendix. Sub-Saharan Africa Regional Economic Outlook, April 2019 (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/reo/afr/2019/april/english/statapp.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"}
  - [Statistical Appendix. Sub-Saharan Africa Regional Economic Outlook, April 2019 (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/reo/afr/2019/april/english/statapp.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"}
- **Table of Contents and Executive Summary. Sub-Saharan Africa Regional Economic Outlook, April 2019**
  - [Table of Contents and Executive Summary. Sub-Saharan Africa Regional Economic Outlook, April 2019 (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/reo/afr/2019/april/english/tocandexecsum.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"}
  - [Table of Contents and Executive Summary. Sub-Saharan Africa Regional Economic Outlook, April 2019 (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/reo/afr/2019/april/english/tocandexecsum.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"}
- **1. Recuperação dupla num contexto de elevada incerteza**
  - [1. Recuperação dupla num contexto de elevada incerteza (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/reo/afr/2019/april/portuguese/sreo0419.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"}
  - [1. Recuperação dupla num contexto de elevada incerteza (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/reo/afr/2019/april/portuguese/sreo0419.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"}

---

## References

- [IMF Data Portal](http://data.imf.org/afrreo)
- [IMF Data Mapper® v3
Plot, compare and import data](https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/datasets/AFRREO)
- [https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo)
- [Global Economy in Crosscurrents of War and Technology](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo/issues/2026/07/08/world-economic-outlook-update-july-2026)
- [https://www.imf.org/en/publications/gfsr](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/gfsr)
- [Global Financial Markets Confront the War in the Middle East and Amplification Risks](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/gfsr/issues/2026/04/14/global-financial-stability-report-april-2026)
- [https://www.imf.org/en/publications/fm](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/fm)
- [Fiscal Policy under Pressure: High Debt, Rising Risks](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/fm/issues/2026/04/15/fiscal-monitor-april-2026)
- [https://www.imf.org/en/publications/reo](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/reo)
- [Asia and Pacific](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/reo/apac)
- [Europe](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/reo/eu)
- [Middle East and Central Asia](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/reo/meca)
- [Sub-Saharan Africa](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/reo/ssa)
- [Western Hemisphere](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/reo/wh)
- [https://www.imf.org/en/publications/areb](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/areb)
- [Getting to Growth in an Age of Uncertainty](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/areb/issues/2025/09/24/annual-report-2025)
- [https://www.imf.org/en/publications/finance-development](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/finance-development)
- [More Publications](https://www.imf.org/en/publications)
- [Sign up to receive free e-mail notices when new series and/or country items are posted on the IMF website.](https://www.imf.org/en/email-subscription/index)
- [Modify your profile](https://www.imf.org/en/email-subscription/login)
- [Country Focus](https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2019/04/11/na041219-africa-navigating-sub-saharan-africas-recovery-amid-greater-uncertainty)
- [Podcast](https://www.imf.org/en/news/podcasts/all-podcasts/2018/10/10/afr-reo-oct-2018-en)
- [Background Paper and
Expanded
Statistical Appendix Tables](https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/reo/afr/2019/april/english/backgroundpapers.ash)
- [https://www.imf.org/en/home](https://www.imf.org/en/home)

_Source: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/reo/ssa/issues/2019/04/01/sreo0419_