{
  "title": "Sub-Saharan Africa Regional Economic Outlook: Navigating Uncertainty",
  "publication": "Sub-Saharan Africa, October 18, 2019",
  "sourceUrl": "https://www.imf.org/en/publications/reo/ssa/issues/2019/10/01/sreo1019",
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  "summary": "Growth in sub-Saharan Africa is projected to remain at 3.2 percent in 2019 and rise to 3.6 percent in 2020. The expected recovery, however, is at a slower pace than previously envisaged for about two-thirds of the countries in the region, partly due to a challenging external environment.",
  "publishDate": "2019-10-18",
  "series": "Sub-Saharan Africa",
  "sections": [
    {
      "heading": "Growth projections and headline findings",
      "content": "- Growth in sub-Saharan Africa is projected to remain at 3.2 percent in 2019 and rise to 3.6 percent in 2020.\n- The expected recovery is at a slower pace than previously envisaged for about two-thirds of the countries in the region, partly due to a challenging external environment.\n- Growth is projected to remain strong in non-resource-intensive countries, averaging about 6 percent.\n  - As a result, 24 countries, home to about 500 million people, will see their per capita income rise faster than the rest of the world.\n- Growth in resource-intensive countries is projected at 2½ percent.\n  - Hence, 21 countries are projected to have per capita growth lower than the world average.\n- The downward revision for about two-thirds of countries reflects:\n  - a more challenging external environment,\n  - continued output disruptions in oil-exporting countries,\n  - weaker-than-anticipated growth in South Africa."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Chapter 2 — Competition, competitiveness, and growth",
      "content": "- More than 70 percent of the countries in the region are in the bottom half of countries globally in terms of competition indicators.\n- Firm markups are about 11 percent higher in sub-Saharan African countries relative to other emerging market economies and developing countries and are more persistent.\n- State-owned firms are more prevalent in the region.\n- Empirical analysis suggests that increased competition can boost real per capita GDP growth rate by about 1 percentage point through:\n  - improved export competitiveness,\n  - productivity growth,\n  - investment."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Chapter 3 — Domestic arrears: causes, symptoms, and cures",
      "content": "- Domestic arrears have been pervasive in many countries, reflecting weak public financial management.\n- Arrears have increased in recent years (to about 3.3 percent of GDP in 2018), following the 2014 commodity price shock.\n- Effects of domestic arrears include:\n  - negative impacts on private sector activity,\n  - weakened delivery of social services,\n  - increased banking sector vulnerabilities,\n  - undermined citizens’ trust in the government,\n  - weakening the ability of fiscal policy to support growth and casting doubt on the merit of relying on arrears financing to avoid spending cuts.\n- Approaches discussed to clear and prevent arrears accumulation:\n  - verification,\n  - prioritization,\n  - liquidation,\n  - public financial management reforms,\n  - building buffers,\n  - timely external supports."
    },
    {
      "heading": "Policy implications and recommended priorities",
      "content": "- Carefully calibrate the near-term policy mix to reduce risks and promote sustained and inclusive growth across all countries in the region.\n- Build resilience to external shocks and domestic vulnerabilities.\n- Raise medium-term growth through reforms that enhance competition, productivity, and investment.\n- For arrears management, pursue verification, prioritization, and liquidation while strengthening public financial management, building buffers, and securing timely external support.\n\nSub-Saharan Africa Regional Economic Outlook: Navigating Uncertainty — IMF web landing page overview\n\n---\n\n Content in this bundle\n\n- Background Papers. Sub-Saharan Africa Regional Economic Outlook, October 2019\n  - Background Papers. Sub-Saharan Africa Regional Economic Outlook, October 2019 (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - Background Papers. Sub-Saharan Africa Regional Economic Outlook, October 2019 (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Chapter 1\n  - Chapter 1 (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - Chapter 1 (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- 2. Competition, Competitiveness, and Growth\n  - 2. Competition, Competitiveness, and Growth (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - 2. Competition, Competitiveness, and Growth (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Chapter 3\n  - Chapter 3 (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - Chapter 3 (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Sub-Saharan Africa Regional Economic Outlook; Navigating Uncertainty, October 2019\n  - Sub-Saharan Africa Regional Economic Outlook; Navigating Uncertainty, October 2019 (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - Sub-Saharan Africa Regional Economic Outlook; Navigating Uncertainty, October 2019 (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Statistical Appendix. Sub-Saharan Africa Regional Economic Outlook, October 2019\n  - Statistical Appendix. Sub-Saharan Africa Regional Economic Outlook, October 2019 (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - Statistical Appendix. Sub-Saharan Africa Regional Economic Outlook, October 2019 (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n- Table of Contents. Executive Summary. Sub-Saharan Africa Regional Economic Outlook, October 2019\n  - Table of Contents. Executive Summary. Sub-Saharan Africa Regional Economic Outlook, October 2019 (Markdown version){rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"}\n  - Table of Contents. Executive Summary. Sub-Saharan Africa Regional Economic Outlook, October 2019 (PDF){rel=\"external\" type=\"application/pdf\"}\n\n---\n\n References\n\n- Abebe Aemro Selassie, Director of the IMF African Department, gives an overview of the latest Regional Economic Outlook Report for Sub-Saharan Africa.\n- IMF Data Portal\n- IMF Data Mapper® v3\nPlot, compare and import data\n- Six Charts on How Elevated Global Uncertainty Is Creating Challenges for Sub-Saharan Africa\n- Sign up to receive free e-mail notices when new series and/or country items are posted on the IMF website.\n- Modify your profile\n\nSource: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/reo/ssa/issues/2019/10/01/sreo1019"
    }
  ],
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    "[Markdown version](/en/publications/reo/ssa/issues/2019/10/01/sreo1019/index.md)",
    "[Structured JSON version](/en/publications/reo/ssa/issues/2019/10/01/sreo1019/index.json)",
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    "Published: October 18, 2019",
    "Series: Sub-Saharan Africa",
    "Growth in sub-Saharan Africa is projected to remain at 3.2 percent in 2019 and rise to 3.6 percent in 2020.",
    "The expected recovery is at a slower pace than previously envisaged for about two-thirds of the countries in the region, partly due to a challenging external environment.",
    "Growth is projected to remain strong in non-resource-intensive countries, averaging about 6 percent.",
    "Growth in resource-intensive countries is projected at 2½ percent.",
    "The downward revision for about two-thirds of countries reflects:",
    "More than 70 percent of the countries in the region are in the bottom half of countries globally in terms of competition indicators.",
    "Firm markups are about 11 percent higher in sub-Saharan African countries relative to other emerging market economies and developing countries and are more persistent.",
    "State-owned firms are more prevalent in the region.",
    "Empirical analysis suggests that increased competition can boost real per capita GDP growth rate by about 1 percentage point through:",
    "Domestic arrears have been pervasive in many countries, reflecting weak public financial management.",
    "Arrears have increased in recent years (to about 3.3 percent of GDP in 2018), following the 2014 commodity price shock.",
    "Effects of domestic arrears include:",
    "Approaches discussed to clear and prevent arrears accumulation:",
    "Carefully calibrate the near-term policy mix to reduce risks and promote sustained and inclusive growth across all countries in the region.",
    "Build resilience to external shocks and domestic vulnerabilities.",
    "Raise medium-term growth through reforms that enhance competition, productivity, and investment.",
    "For arrears management, pursue verification, prioritization, and liquidation while strengthening public financial management, building buffers, and securing timely external support.",
    "**Background Papers. Sub-Saharan Africa Regional Economic Outlook, October 2019**",
    "**Chapter 1**",
    "**2. Competition, Competitiveness, and Growth**",
    "**Chapter 3**",
    "**Sub-Saharan Africa Regional Economic Outlook; Navigating Uncertainty, October 2019**",
    "**Statistical Appendix. Sub-Saharan Africa Regional Economic Outlook, October 2019**",
    "**Table of Contents. Executive Summary. Sub-Saharan Africa Regional Economic Outlook, October 2019**",
    "[Abebe Aemro Selassie, Director of the IMF African Department, gives an overview of the latest Regional Economic Outlook Report for Sub-Saharan Africa.](https://www.imf.org/en/videos/view/6096129627001)",
    "[IMF Data Portal](http://data.imf.org/afrreo)",
    "[IMF Data Mapper® v3",
    "[Six Charts on How Elevated Global Uncertainty Is Creating Challenges for Sub-Saharan Africa](https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2019/10/17/na1819six-charts-on-how-elevated-global-uncertainty-is-creating-challenges-for-sub-saharan-africa)",
    "[Sign up to receive free e-mail notices when new series and/or country items are posted on the IMF website.](https://www.imf.org/en/email-subscription/index)",
    "[Modify your profile](https://www.imf.org/en/email-subscription/login)"
  ],
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