## Sub-Saharan Africa Regional Economic Outlook: Navigating Uncertainty _Sub-Saharan Africa, October 18, 2019_ ## Source details **Canonical URL:** [Sub-Saharan Africa Regional Economic Outlook: Navigating Uncertainty](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/reo/ssa/issues/2019/10/01/sreo1019) ## Other formats - [Markdown version](/en/publications/reo/ssa/issues/2019/10/01/sreo1019/index.md) - [Structured JSON version](/en/publications/reo/ssa/issues/2019/10/01/sreo1019/index.json) - [Bundle manifest](/en/publications/reo/ssa/issues/2019/10/01/sreo1019/bundle-manifest.json) ## Bibliographic details - Published: October 18, 2019 - Series: Sub-Saharan Africa --- ### Growth projections and headline findings - Growth in sub-Saharan Africa is projected to remain at 3.2 percent in 2019 and rise to 3.6 percent in 2020. - The expected recovery is at a slower pace than previously envisaged for about two-thirds of the countries in the region, partly due to a challenging external environment. - Growth is projected to remain strong in non-resource-intensive countries, averaging about 6 percent. - As a result, 24 countries, home to about 500 million people, will see their per capita income rise faster than the rest of the world. - Growth in resource-intensive countries is projected at 2½ percent. - Hence, 21 countries are projected to have per capita growth lower than the world average. - The downward revision for about two-thirds of countries reflects: - a more challenging external environment, - continued output disruptions in oil-exporting countries, - weaker-than-anticipated growth in South Africa. ### Chapter 2 — Competition, competitiveness, and growth - More than 70 percent of the countries in the region are in the bottom half of countries globally in terms of competition indicators. - Firm markups are about 11 percent higher in sub-Saharan African countries relative to other emerging market economies and developing countries and are more persistent. - State-owned firms are more prevalent in the region. - Empirical analysis suggests that increased competition can boost real per capita GDP growth rate by about 1 percentage point through: - improved export competitiveness, - productivity growth, - investment. ### Chapter 3 — Domestic arrears: causes, symptoms, and cures - Domestic arrears have been pervasive in many countries, reflecting weak public financial management. - Arrears have increased in recent years (to about 3.3 percent of GDP in 2018), following the 2014 commodity price shock. - Effects of domestic arrears include: - negative impacts on private sector activity, - weakened delivery of social services, - increased banking sector vulnerabilities, - undermined citizens’ trust in the government, - weakening the ability of fiscal policy to support growth and casting doubt on the merit of relying on arrears financing to avoid spending cuts. - Approaches discussed to clear and prevent arrears accumulation: - verification, - prioritization, - liquidation, - public financial management reforms, - building buffers, - timely external supports. ### Policy implications and recommended priorities - Carefully calibrate the near-term policy mix to reduce risks and promote sustained and inclusive growth across all countries in the region. - Build resilience to external shocks and domestic vulnerabilities. - Raise medium-term growth through reforms that enhance competition, productivity, and investment. - For arrears management, pursue verification, prioritization, and liquidation while strengthening public financial management, building buffers, and securing timely external support. *Sub-Saharan Africa Regional Economic Outlook: Navigating Uncertainty — IMF web landing page overview* --- ## Content in this bundle - **Background Papers. Sub-Saharan Africa Regional Economic Outlook, October 2019** - [Background Papers. Sub-Saharan Africa Regional Economic Outlook, October 2019 (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/reo/afr/2019/october/english/backgroundpapers.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"} - [Background Papers. Sub-Saharan Africa Regional Economic Outlook, October 2019 (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/reo/afr/2019/october/english/backgroundpapers.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"} - **Chapter 1** - [Chapter 1 (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/reo/afr/2019/october/english/ch1.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"} - [Chapter 1 (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/reo/afr/2019/october/english/ch1.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"} - **2. Competition, Competitiveness, and Growth** - [2. Competition, Competitiveness, and Growth (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/reo/afr/2019/october/english/ch2.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"} - [2. Competition, Competitiveness, and Growth (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/reo/afr/2019/october/english/ch2.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"} - **Chapter 3** - [Chapter 3 (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/reo/afr/2019/october/english/ch3.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"} - [Chapter 3 (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/reo/afr/2019/october/english/ch3.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"} - **Sub-Saharan Africa Regional Economic Outlook; Navigating Uncertainty, October 2019** - [Sub-Saharan Africa Regional Economic Outlook; Navigating Uncertainty, October 2019 (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/reo/afr/2019/october/english/sreo1019.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"} - [Sub-Saharan Africa Regional Economic Outlook; Navigating Uncertainty, October 2019 (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/reo/afr/2019/october/english/sreo1019.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"} - **Statistical Appendix. Sub-Saharan Africa Regional Economic Outlook, October 2019** - [Statistical Appendix. Sub-Saharan Africa Regional Economic Outlook, October 2019 (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/reo/afr/2019/october/english/statapp.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"} - [Statistical Appendix. Sub-Saharan Africa Regional Economic Outlook, October 2019 (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/reo/afr/2019/october/english/statapp.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"} - **Table of Contents. Executive Summary. Sub-Saharan Africa Regional Economic Outlook, October 2019** - [Table of Contents. Executive Summary. Sub-Saharan Africa Regional Economic Outlook, October 2019 (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/reo/afr/2019/october/english/tocandexecsum.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"} - [Table of Contents. Executive Summary. Sub-Saharan Africa Regional Economic Outlook, October 2019 (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/reo/afr/2019/october/english/tocandexecsum.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"} --- ## References - [Abebe Aemro Selassie, Director of the IMF African Department, gives an overview of the latest Regional Economic Outlook Report for Sub-Saharan Africa.](https://www.imf.org/en/videos/view/6096129627001) - [IMF Data Portal](http://data.imf.org/afrreo) - [IMF Data Mapper® v3 Plot, compare and import data](https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/datasets/AFRREO) - [Six Charts on How Elevated Global Uncertainty Is Creating Challenges for Sub-Saharan Africa](https://www.imf.org/en/news/articles/2019/10/17/na1819six-charts-on-how-elevated-global-uncertainty-is-creating-challenges-for-sub-saharan-africa) - [Sign up to receive free e-mail notices when new series and/or country items are posted on the IMF website.](https://www.imf.org/en/email-subscription/index) - [Modify your profile](https://www.imf.org/en/email-subscription/login) _Source: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/reo/ssa/issues/2019/10/01/sreo1019_