## COVID-19: An Unprecedented Threat to Development in Sub-Saharan Africa

_Sub-Saharan Africa, April 15, 2020_

## Source details

**Canonical URL:** [COVID-19: An Unprecedented Threat to Development in Sub-Saharan Africa](https://www.imf.org/en/publications/reo/ssa/issues/2020/04/01/sreo0420)

## Other formats

- [Markdown version](/en/publications/reo/ssa/issues/2020/04/01/sreo0420/index.md)
- [Structured JSON version](/en/publications/reo/ssa/issues/2020/04/01/sreo0420/index.json)
- [Bundle manifest](/en/publications/reo/ssa/issues/2020/04/01/sreo0420/bundle-manifest.json)

## Bibliographic details
- Published: April 15, 2020
- Series: Sub-Saharan Africa

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### Executive summary
- Sub-Saharan Africa is facing an unprecedented health and economic crisis that threatens to reverse recent development progress and slow the region’s growth prospects in the years to come.
- The COVID-19 pandemic has spread through almost all countries in the region and has precipitated an economic crisis reflecting three large shocks: disruption of production and a sharp reduction in demand; spillovers from a sharp deterioration in global growth and tighter financial conditions; and a severe decline in commodity prices.
- As a result, the region’s economy is projected to contract by 1.6 percent this year—the worst reading on record.
- The economic crisis will exacerbate social conditions and aggravate existing economic vulnerabilities; containment measures and social distancing will jeopardize livelihoods.
- Policy priorities include ramping up health capacity and spending to save lives and contain the virus outbreak; mobilizing support from development partners, including debt relief for the most vulnerable countries; and deploying fiscal, monetary, and financial policies to protect vulnerable groups, mitigate economic losses, and support the recovery. Once the crisis subsides, fiscal positions should return to sustainable paths.
- Publication: April 2020

### Key statistics and projections
- Region-wide GDP projection for 2020: contract by 1.6 percent.

### Policy recommendations and financing needs
- Ramp up health capacity and spending to save lives and contain the virus outbreak.
- Seek support from all development partners to address sizable financing needs, including debt relief for the most vulnerable countries.
- Use fiscal, monetary, and financial policies to:
  - Protect vulnerable groups.
  - Mitigate economic losses.
  - Support the recovery.
- Restore fiscal positions to sustainable paths once the crisis subsides.

### Chapter 1 — Climate change and resilience
- Sub-Saharan Africa is especially vulnerable to climate change due to heavy reliance on rain-fed agriculture and limited resilience and coping mechanisms.
- On average, climate change could reduce GDP growth by at least 1 percentage point in the month a climate shock occurs.
- Effective resilience measures include improving access to finance and insurance, education, health, telecommunications, and physical infrastructure.
- Ensuring food security and raising agricultural productivity in the face of intensifying weather shocks will require targeted social assistance, crop diversification, and improved irrigation.
- These measures involve large public spending but are more cost-effective than frequent disaster relief.
- Limited fiscal space poses a challenge and means development partners’ support will be critical.

### Chapter 2 — Digitalization
- Sub-Saharan Africa is rapidly becoming digitally connected and closing gaps with the rest of the world; digital solutions have taken on added importance during the COVID-19 pandemic.
- Analysis conducted before the pandemic found that a one percentage point increase in internet penetration in the region can raise per capita growth by 0.1–0.4 percentage points.
- There does not appear to be an impact on overall employment, although the share of service sector jobs increases.
- Evidence suggests digitalization can help reduce corruption, improve public sector accountability and efficiency, and support financial development.
- Digitalization also brings new risks (e.g., cybersecurity, business continuity) and challenges to macro-policy making (e.g., monetary policy transmission, changes to the tax base).
- Policies to enable and leverage greater connectivity include investing in complementary infrastructure and human capital; developing legislative and regulatory frameworks; and granting supervisory powers to ensure consumer protection and address risks.

*IMF Regional Economic Outlook: Sub-Saharan Africa — "COVID-19: An Unprecedented Threat to Development in Sub-Saharan Africa" (April 2020).*

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## Content in this bundle

- **Executive Summary (ch1)**
  - [Executive Summary (ch1) (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/reo/afr/2020/april/english/ch1.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"}
  - [Executive Summary (ch1) (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/reo/afr/2020/april/english/ch1.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"}
- **Chapter 2**
  - [Chapter 2 (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/reo/afr/2020/april/english/ch2.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"}
  - [Chapter 2 (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/reo/afr/2020/april/english/ch2.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"}
- **3. Digitalization in Sub-Saharan Africa**
  - [3. Digitalization in Sub-Saharan Africa (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/reo/afr/2020/april/english/ch3.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"}
  - [3. Digitalization in Sub-Saharan Africa (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/reo/afr/2020/april/english/ch3.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"}
- **onlineannexch2 - Section 1**
  - [onlineannexch2 - Section 1 (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/reo/afr/2020/april/english/onlineannexch2.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"}
  - [onlineannexch2 - Section 1 (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/reo/afr/2020/april/english/onlineannexch2.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"}
- **Annex 3.2 Internet Penetration and Macroeconomic Impacts**
  - [Annex 3.2 Internet Penetration and Macroeconomic Impacts (Markdown version)](/-/media/files/publications/reo/afr/2020/april/english/onlineannexch3.pdf.md){rel="alternate" type="text/markdown"}
  - [Annex 3.2 Internet Penetration and Macroeconomic Impacts (PDF)](/-/media/files/publications/reo/afr/2020/april/english/onlineannexch3.pdf){rel="external" type="application/pdf"}

---

## References

- [Abebe Aemro Selassie](https://www.imf.org/en/videos/view/1669301312852679285)
- [Sign up to receive free e-mail notices when new series and/or country items are posted on the IMF website.](https://www.imf.org/en/email-subscription/index)
- [Modify your profile](https://www.imf.org/en/email-subscription/login)
- [Country Focus Article](https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2020/04/13/na0413202-six-charts-show-how-covid-19-is-an-unprecedented-threat-to)
- [Blog](https://blogs.imf.org/2020/06/04/safeguarding-africas-food-security-in-the-age-of-covid-19/)

_Source: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/reo/ssa/issues/2020/04/01/sreo0420_